BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 185,000 mts of new crop soybean meal to the Philippines. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 620,000 barrels last week after a 970,000 barrel decline the previous week. The market expected a 3.4 million-barrel drawdown. S&P Global PMI reports: Russia composite (includes manufacturing and services) PMI: 49.1 vs 47.5 expected Russia services PMI: 50.0 vs 48.3 expected Great Britain composite PMI: 53.5 vs 53.0

Tidbits All September grain futures positions and September basis contracts must be priced or rolled today before the close. As expected, CBOT contracts were weak yesterday as they usually are a few days before the first notice day for deliveries on futures contracts, which is Friday. Today is a toss-up as far as traditional up or down price day, but first notice day is usually an up day. The Hard Red Winter Wheat futures market made new contract lows each of the past two day

Tidbits Brazil: IMEA is a professional organization for Mato Grosso farmers, Brazil’s leading agricultural state. IMEA reported that cotton harvest for the state is 55.2% complete. Last year at this time, cotton harvest was 74.2% complete and the five years average is 78.6%. Farmers want to plant soybeans in those cotton fields in two weeks! In Brazil, the second corn crop harvest is well underway, but the weather is predicted to turn wet and cold the first week of Septembe

Tidbits On Sunday, OPEC+ reached a preliminary deal to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day beginning in September as concerns mount over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia amid increasing U.S. pressure on India to halt Russian oil purchases, part of Trump’s effort to bring Moscow to the negotiating table for a peace deal with Ukraine. The Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler has resigned from her position with the Fed effective 8 August. She was

Tidbits August CBOT options expire Friday. Historical data suggests that poor corn pollination due to heat or drought could result in yield losses ranging from 1.5 bushels per acre per day of extreme heat (95+°F) during pollination which is approximately 0.8-1% per day based on a 182 bushels/acre trend yield. President Trump on Tuesday said the U.S. and Japan have struck a deal that will lower the hefty tariffs he had threatened to impose on goods from Japan while extractin

Tidbits 247Ag reports Ohio has set a record for a month's average nighttime temperatures being the highest ever recorded, which is not good for pollination. Wells Fargo has suspended all travel to China after one of its employees was blocked from leaving China, causing broader anxiety about the risks of travel in the country. Wells Fargo's Chenyue Mao was subjected to an exit ban after she entered China in recent weeks. The Wallstreet Journal said the exit ban demonstrate

Tidbits The budget bill signed into law by President Trump yesterday afternoon has significant updates to the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. Here is the status based on available information we have gleaned from multiple sources and is not yet official until the bureaucrats say it is: Extension of the Credit: Section 45Z credit is extended through December 31, 2029, which financially supports the production of low-carbon transportation fuels, including biodiesel an

Tidbits U.S. grain markets are closed and will have no day session today. Markets will be reopening for the evening session on Thursday. With the holiday, this week’s export sales report will be released on Friday, along with the cattle on feed report. The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report will be delayed until Monday. The last trading day for July grain options is this Friday. Heavy rain fell again Tuesday in South Central Kansas and into North Central Oklahoma. There are

Tidbits Corey Lavinsky, a biofuel analyst with S&P Global, reported yesterday morning the EPA proposed to reduce the value of RINs by 50% for biofuels that are imported or made in the U.S. using foreign feedstocks. EPA also proposed biofuel volume requirements for 2026 & 2027 are much higher than most people's expectations for Biomass-based diesel (BBD). The EPA proposal requires total biofuel blending volumes at 24.02 billion gallons in 2026 and 24.46 billion in 2027; the

Highlights Ag Canada reported yesterday that wheat export traders are saying Chinese buyers have bought 400,000 to 500,000 mts of wheat from Australia and Canada in recent weeks as drought and heat has already done significant damage to the wheat crop in Henan province, which grows about a third of China’s 140 million mts wheat crop. There is a reason May is the seasonal high for wheat prices, so do not be pricing new crop wheat yet. A crop tour projects Oklahoma’s winter w

Highlights The U.S. Dollar Index closed yesterday at the lowest level since April 2022. A lower dollar makes U.S. products more competitive in the world marketplace. The 12 month U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) was reported yesterday morning at 2.7% versus 3.2% the previous month; the market expected 3.3%. For the month of March, the PPI was a negative 0.4%, versus +0.1% in February; the market expected +0.2% for March. PPI is the measure of inflation at the wholesale level

Tidbits At 5 AM Central yesterday morning, China announced an additional 34% tariff on all U.S. products beginning 10 April and Reuters reported China halted poultry products imports from two unnamed American companies. China added five other countermeasures that do not appear to be ag related. Corn, beans, and wheat dropped dramatically in the 30 minutes after the news was released while us peon market watchers wondered what happened. Corn fully recovered and settled hig

Tidbits The Trump administration has urged oil and biofuels producers to collaborate on a new biofuels policy to prevent political conflicts similar to those in his first term. This initiative has led to at least two meetings, including one hosted by the American Petroleum Institute. Key discussions included increasing the mandate for renewable diesel and biodiesel from 3.35 billion gallons to between 4.75 billion and 5.5 billion gallons. Ethanol blending mandates are current

Highlights Mexico said it is willing to raise tariffs on Chinese goods and buy more from the U.S. to avoid President Trump's 25% tariff, Bloomberg reported late Friday. Canada and Mexico are feeding Trump evidence of their progress in curbing the flow of fentanyl opioids into the U.S. ahead of the midnight Monday deadline for 25% tariffs on their non-energy imports. Crude oil from Canada is facing a 10% tariff on its 4,000+ barrels per day to the U.S. Friday’s financia

Highlights First thing this morning the USDA will release its projections for 2025 crops and that includes the S&D with acres planted, yields, and price projections. The average estimate for tomorrow’s acreage numbers are 93.6 million for corn, 84.4 million for soybeans, and 46.7 million for wheat. Drew Learner, Senior Agricultural Meteorologist at World Weather expects drier than normal weather for Brazil’s safrinha corn: “While monsoon precipitation is expected to prevail

Highlights The USDA made no changes on the domestic corn and soybean S&D other than increasing the average price expected to be paid to...

Tidbits Crop conditions in Argentina continue to get worse. Soybeans are rated 28% poor condition vs. 21% last week and 14% a year ago. Corn is rated 20% poor vs. 14% last week and 6% a year ago. However, in their 2023 drought, 60% of the bean crop and 47% of the corn crop were in poor condition. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange announced cuts to estimated production for Argentina's 2024/25 soybean and corn crops by 1 million mts each to 49.6 million mts and 49 million mts, r

Highlights The weather forecasters have come to the consensus there will be significant rainfall in the dry areas of South America starting this weekend. That is what last Monday’s ENSO update indicated with the rising water temperature and our rain day charts have been increasing the number of days with rain in the ten day forecast all week. Uruguay borders Argentina to its west and southwest, Brazil to its north and northeast while bordering the Río de la Plata to the sou

Tidbits Susan Stroud of No Bull Ag stated Sunday the Biden Administration Friday afternoon said imported used cooking oil will not qualify for tax credits under 45Z. In conclusion, she said, “Theoretically clearing the way for more soybean oil demand.” We hope she is correct, but we did not see it that clearly. The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) issued this statement late Friday regarding the Treasury’s 45Z comments issued Friday afternoon: The U.S. Treasury today relea

Highlights It is very important to understand Friday’s price gains for corn and beans were based upon production cuts, not demand increases. While there will be increases in demand in the coming months, the production cuts for 2024 U.S. crops are behind us and there will be no more production adjustments until possibly some minor adjustment in September, after the marketing year is over. Brazilian grain trader, Eduardo Vanin, Friday evening reported exporters were booking