BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights The weather forecasters have come to the consensus there will be significant rainfall in the dry areas of South America starting this weekend. That is what last Monday’s ENSO update indicated with the rising water temperature and our rain day charts have been increasing the number of days with rain in the ten day forecast all week.   Uruguay borders Argentina to its west and southwest, Brazil to its north and northeast while bordering the Río de la Plata to the sou

Tidbits Susan Stroud of No Bull Ag stated Sunday the Biden Administration Friday afternoon said imported used cooking oil will not qualify for tax credits under 45Z. In conclusion, she said, “Theoretically clearing the way for more soybean oil demand.”   We hope she is correct, but we did not see it that clearly. The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) issued this statement late Friday regarding the Treasury’s 45Z comments issued Friday afternoon:  The U.S. Treasury today relea

Highlights It is very important to understand Friday’s price gains  for corn and beans were based upon production cuts, not demand increases. While there will be increases in demand in the coming months, the production cuts for 2024 U.S. crops are behind us and there will be no more production adjustments until possibly some minor adjustment in September, after the marketing year is over.    Brazilian grain trader, Eduardo Vanin, Friday evening reported exporters were booking

Tidbits The grain markets will close at 12:05 PM CT this week Tuesday, December 24th. The markets will be closed all day on Wednesday, December 25th. They will open back up on Thursday at 8:30 AM CT, December 26th. The U.S. government pushed through a funding bill at the last minute, President Biden signed it on Saturday, putting off the next fight over the debt ceiling until March, when it will become a problem for President-elect Trump.   The bill included a one-year extens

Tidbits The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) was reported yesterday morning. It is the measure of inflation at the wholesale level. It was slightly higher than expected at 0.4% for the month of November. Unemployment claims were 21,000 higher than expected at 242,000. The market continues to expect an interest rate cut Wednesday even though the inflation numbers do not justify it. The market has priced in a 98% chance of a 25 basis points cut next week to 4.25-4.50% on the Fed

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China.    The 2 to 5 trading days before the delivery notices  are issued are usually more down days than up. December deliveries will be assigned to the oldest long positions tomorrow. Yesterday was the last day to liquidate December positions to avoid any chance of delivery. Soft red winter wheat was down 4 of the last 6 days; Dec hard red winter wheat was down 4 of the last 6 days

U.S. Soybean Market Situation The two major unknowns for the North American markets are the biofuels unknowns and 2025 planted soybean acres. The biofuel issues are scheduled to become known within 30 to 40 days, but that probably will not happen or if it does happen, the Trump Administration could change them after 20 January.   Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) producers are eligible for a tax credit of $1.25 per gallon. Qualifying SAF must reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissio

Tidbits Asia markets opened today with an increasingly bullish global backdrop fueled by continued strength in U.S. stocks, but with local sentiment more circumspect due to the uncertainty surrounding China's deep-rooted economic problems, but China continues to address those problems.   The People's Bank of China is expected to cut its loan prime rates today as Beijing's latest move in a series of monetary, fiscal, and liquidity support measures to shore up the imploding pro

Tidbits The European Commission has proposed a delay of its landmark law Deforestation-Free Products Regulation (DFPR). You may recall that ADM was offering a 15 or 20¢ premium for soybeans with a certificate that the beans were not grown on land cleared of trees within the past few years. That was because ADM wanted to sell soybean meal to Europe in 2025 and, without the DFPR certificate, no commodity would be allowed to enter the EU in 2025. Due to the massive backlash of t

Highlights Several of our Eastern Corn Belt clients informed us yesterday afternoon and evening that the wind on the wet corn stalks really knocked a lot of corn down late Friday to Saturday morning. Bob told us the Case IH dealer in Urbana of Champaign County, Ohio sold two corn reels yesterday morning.       Soybean yields from about a dozen farms in northeast Illinois range from 25.4 to 65.1. Three in the 20's, one 39 bu, three in the 40's, one 53.7, and two in the 60's. T

Highlights The Federal Reserve reduced the Fed Fund Interest Rate by 50 basis points. Eleven or the 12 board members voted to reduce the interest rate by a half percent. The outlook closing said the Fed expects to reduce the interest rate at least another half percent before the end of 2024.   The Fed referenced the growth of the global and US economy is stable, inflation is coming down, and the labor market is still solid. Powell said the half point cut should send a message

Highlights All the weakness in crude oil prices is based upon the gloom and doom predictions for the worlds’ economy, most especially China’s economy, whose industrial PMI for September was 50.4, up 0.6 from July. As far as the US economy goes, who thinks lower interest rates coming in less than two weeks will slow down economic growth?   Goldman Sachs cut its expected crude oil price range by $5 a barrel for 2025. They expect crude to average $80 per barrel next year with a

Tidbits Brazilians will pay more for electricity in September as local power regulator Aneel decided to impose an additional charge on bills due to a drop in reservoir levels at hydroelectric plants amid the country's dry season.   Dry weather across Germany has led to low water levels in the River Rhine, preventing cargo vessels from sailing fully loaded and boosting freight rates.   Kamala Harris wants to tax “unrealized profits.” If you bought land for $5,000 and it is now

At least one farmer in West Central Ohio who thought he had Tar Spot on his corn had his agronomist look at his fields who said the fungus was Northern Corn Leaf Blight, not Tar Spot. Since some of the corn had started to dent, the agronomist said do not spend any money. Highlights Look what happened a day after soybean export trader, Eduardo Vanin, reported: US beans are cheaper than Brazil.   Friday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 132,000 mts new crop beans to Chin

Highlights StoneX predicts the US corn will yield 182.3 (USDA 181) and beans 52.6 (USDA 52). The US soybean crush in June was 183.7 million bushels, 1.1 million less than the market expected, but 8.7 million bushels more than a year ago.      The corn crush was 495 million bushels with 442 million bushels for ethanol, up slightly from a year ago. Canola crush was 198,005 tons, well above the 158,305 tons crushed a year ago.   Cottonseed once refined oil production was 30.1 mi

Highlights Slovakia is a member of the EU and NATO. Its Prime Minister, Robert Fico, was shot yesterday morning US time by a 71-year-old man. Fico was in critical condition when he arrived at the hospital. He did survive the surgery and was listed in stable condition at last report.   Fico has been an out-spoken critic of admitting Ukraine to membership in the EU, NATO, and military aid to Ukraine. He also opposed liberal immigration policies. He is considered a “nationalist”

Highlights On Friday, May 10th, the USDA will issue its monthly S&D, but this one will include the 2024 harvested crops for the marketing year starting June 1st for wheat and September 1st for corn and beans. We know the yields will be trend yields from the Outlook Forum in February and we know the acres will be the March Planting Intentions. What we do not know is what the demand numbers will be. Certainly, corn for feed use, ethanol, and exports should be a bit more than wh

Highlights The road map for corn ethanol and soy oil to qualify for the SAF $40 billion of subsidies was released by the Biden Administration yesterday afternoon after the CBOT closed. No-till, cover crops, and “efficient fertilization” must be documented to have shot at the bonus price for low carbon corn and beans. Ag Economist Scott Irwin from The University of Illinois summed it up this way: "Looks to me like a pretty small number of acres would qualify for 2023 and 2024.

Highlights Wheat has been the upside leader the past three trading days. What are analysts saying is moving the wheat market higher?   The dry US Southern Plains (this area had a crop failure in 2023 and the market did not care) Forecast for freezing temps in Europe Too much rain in France Not enough rain in Southern Russia     Except for cold temperatures in Europe, all of the above is and has been old news for several months and more for the dry Southern Plains.   Yesterday

Fuel Pricing Many of our clients use a lot of diesel fuel every month doing other things in addition to farming. We had recommended locking-in spring diesel prices last winter. One client priced 20,000 gallons, but used it all by the 20th of March and asked our opinion of what he should do about pricing more diesel. The decision was made to buy diesel hand-to-mouth until a better pricing opportunity presented itself.    Since ULSD has not been around long enough to establish