BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits 247Ag reports Ohio has set a record for a month's average nighttime temperatures being the highest ever recorded, which is not good for pollination. Wells Fargo has suspended all travel to China after one of its employees was blocked from leaving China, causing broader anxiety about the risks of travel in the country. Wells Fargo's Chenyue Mao was subjected to an exit ban after she entered China in recent weeks. The Wallstreet Journal said the exit ban demonstrate

Tidbits The budget bill signed into law by President Trump yesterday afternoon has significant updates to the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. Here is the status based on available information we have gleaned from multiple sources and is not yet official until the bureaucrats say it is: Extension of the Credit: Section 45Z credit is extended through December 31, 2029, which financially supports the production of low-carbon transportation fuels, including biodiesel an

Tidbits U.S. grain markets are closed and will have no day session today. Markets will be reopening for the evening session on Thursday. With the holiday, this week’s export sales report will be released on Friday, along with the cattle on feed report. The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report will be delayed until Monday. The last trading day for July grain options is this Friday. Heavy rain fell again Tuesday in South Central Kansas and into North Central Oklahoma. There are

Tidbits Corey Lavinsky, a biofuel analyst with S&P Global, reported yesterday morning the EPA proposed to reduce the value of RINs by 50% for biofuels that are imported or made in the U.S. using foreign feedstocks. EPA also proposed biofuel volume requirements for 2026 & 2027 are much higher than most people's expectations for Biomass-based diesel (BBD). The EPA proposal requires total biofuel blending volumes at 24.02 billion gallons in 2026 and 24.46 billion in 2027; the

Highlights Ag Canada reported yesterday that wheat export traders are saying Chinese buyers have bought 400,000 to 500,000 mts of wheat from Australia and Canada in recent weeks as drought and heat has already done significant damage to the wheat crop in Henan province, which grows about a third of China’s 140 million mts wheat crop. There is a reason May is the seasonal high for wheat prices, so do not be pricing new crop wheat yet. A crop tour projects Oklahoma’s winter w

Highlights The U.S. Dollar Index closed yesterday at the lowest level since April 2022. A lower dollar makes U.S. products more competitive in the world marketplace. The 12 month U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) was reported yesterday morning at 2.7% versus 3.2% the previous month; the market expected 3.3%. For the month of March, the PPI was a negative 0.4%, versus +0.1% in February; the market expected +0.2% for March. PPI is the measure of inflation at the wholesale level

Tidbits At 5 AM Central yesterday morning, China announced an additional 34% tariff on all U.S. products beginning 10 April and Reuters reported China halted poultry products imports from two unnamed American companies. China added five other countermeasures that do not appear to be ag related. Corn, beans, and wheat dropped dramatically in the 30 minutes after the news was released while us peon market watchers wondered what happened. Corn fully recovered and settled hig

Tidbits The Trump administration has urged oil and biofuels producers to collaborate on a new biofuels policy to prevent political conflicts similar to those in his first term. This initiative has led to at least two meetings, including one hosted by the American Petroleum Institute. Key discussions included increasing the mandate for renewable diesel and biodiesel from 3.35 billion gallons to between 4.75 billion and 5.5 billion gallons. Ethanol blending mandates are current

Highlights Mexico said it is willing to raise tariffs on Chinese goods and buy more from the U.S. to avoid President Trump's 25% tariff, Bloomberg reported late Friday. Canada and Mexico are feeding Trump evidence of their progress in curbing the flow of fentanyl opioids into the U.S. ahead of the midnight Monday deadline for 25% tariffs on their non-energy imports. Crude oil from Canada is facing a 10% tariff on its 4,000+ barrels per day to the U.S. Friday’s financia

Highlights First thing this morning the USDA will release its projections for 2025 crops and that includes the S&D with acres planted, yields, and price projections. The average estimate for tomorrow’s acreage numbers are 93.6 million for corn, 84.4 million for soybeans, and 46.7 million for wheat. Drew Learner, Senior Agricultural Meteorologist at World Weather expects drier than normal weather for Brazil’s safrinha corn: “While monsoon precipitation is expected to prevail

Highlights The USDA made no changes on the domestic corn and soybean S&D  other than increasing the average price expected to be paid to...

Tidbits Crop conditions in Argentina continue to get worse. Soybeans are rated 28% poor condition vs. 21% last week and 14% a year ago. Corn is rated 20% poor vs. 14% last week and 6% a year ago. However, in their 2023 drought, 60% of the bean crop and 47% of the corn crop were in poor condition. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange announced cuts to estimated production for Argentina's 2024/25 soybean and corn crops by 1 million mts each to 49.6 million mts and 49 million mts, r

Highlights The weather forecasters have come to the consensus there will be significant rainfall in the dry areas of South America starting this weekend. That is what last Monday’s ENSO update indicated with the rising water temperature and our rain day charts have been increasing the number of days with rain in the ten day forecast all week. Uruguay borders Argentina to its west and southwest, Brazil to its north and northeast while bordering the Río de la Plata to the sou

Tidbits Susan Stroud of No Bull Ag stated Sunday the Biden Administration Friday afternoon said imported used cooking oil will not qualify for tax credits under 45Z. In conclusion, she said, “Theoretically clearing the way for more soybean oil demand.” We hope she is correct, but we did not see it that clearly. The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) issued this statement late Friday regarding the Treasury’s 45Z comments issued Friday afternoon: The U.S. Treasury today relea

Highlights It is very important to understand Friday’s price gains for corn and beans were based upon production cuts, not demand increases. While there will be increases in demand in the coming months, the production cuts for 2024 U.S. crops are behind us and there will be no more production adjustments until possibly some minor adjustment in September, after the marketing year is over. Brazilian grain trader, Eduardo Vanin, Friday evening reported exporters were booking

Tidbits The grain markets will close at 12:05 PM CT this week Tuesday, December 24th. The markets will be closed all day on Wednesday, December 25th. They will open back up on Thursday at 8:30 AM CT, December 26th. The U.S. government pushed through a funding bill at the last minute, President Biden signed it on Saturday, putting off the next fight over the debt ceiling until March, when it will become a problem for President-elect Trump. The bill included a one-year extens

Tidbits The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) was reported yesterday morning. It is the measure of inflation at the wholesale level. It was slightly higher than expected at 0.4% for the month of November. Unemployment claims were 21,000 higher than expected at 242,000. The market continues to expect an interest rate cut Wednesday even though the inflation numbers do not justify it. The market has priced in a 98% chance of a 25 basis points cut next week to 4.25-4.50% on the Fed

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. The 2 to 5 trading days before the delivery notices are issued are usually more down days than up. December deliveries will be assigned to the oldest long positions tomorrow. Yesterday was the last day to liquidate December positions to avoid any chance of delivery. Soft red winter wheat was down 4 of the last 6 days; Dec hard red winter wheat was down 4 of the last 6 days

U.S. Soybean Market Situation The two major unknowns for the North American markets are the biofuels unknowns and 2025 planted soybean acres. The biofuel issues are scheduled to become known within 30 to 40 days, but that probably will not happen or if it does happen, the Trump Administration could change them after 20 January. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) producers are eligible for a tax credit of $1.25 per gallon. Qualifying SAF must reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissio

Tidbits Asia markets opened today with an increasingly bullish global backdrop fueled by continued strength in U.S. stocks, but with local sentiment more circumspect due to the uncertainty surrounding China's deep-rooted economic problems, but China continues to address those problems. The People's Bank of China is expected to cut its loan prime rates today as Beijing's latest move in a series of monetary, fiscal, and liquidity support measures to shore up the imploding pro