Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits China announced tariff reductions on a broad range of U.S. agricultural products on Monday (Sunday night in USA), including corn, wheat, sorghum, soybean meal, and soybean oil, but excluded soybeans. U.S. soybeans continue to face an additional 10% Chinese tariff, which remains a significant obstacle for private Chinese crushers, but not the Chinese government buyers. All the soybeans purchased by China this year have been purchased by the government. Since the govern

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 51,829, +146 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $92.44, -7.86. Dollar Index settled at 101.04, +0.83. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 3,426, +56. Corn December futures settled at $5.28¼, +¾¢ for the week. Basis (Z = De

Tidbits Vomitoxin (aka Deoxynivalenol or DON) on corn is going to be a problem this year for many farmers. Gibberella is the most common vomitoxin; it has a particularly negative impact on livestock, making DON testing an important defense against the profit & loss statement. Dayton Cargill is checking every load of corn for DON. On wheat, it appears as a pink or reddish mold on the glumes and kernels. On corn, a pink or reddish mold appears on the tip of the ears. Vomitoxin

Tidbits The U.S. Trade Representative said there would be a press release, perhaps a press conference on Monday with the details about the trade negotiations between U.S. and Chinese officials the past two days. He made the announcement about 9 AM Central Time yesterday, which is when the markets began their upward trend into the close after trading sharply lower overnight. His announcement probably supported the market, but slow harvest, rain in the forecast for the next 10

Tidbits The U.S.-China summit has not yielded any significant new information for the grain markets, and as a result, major grain markets are currently trading lower. The "Busan" trade agreement between the U.S. and China has been extended until 10 January 2027. That was the first announcement yesterday morning from the White House. That means tariffs will remain reduced, and export controls on rare earth elements will continue to be eased. This agreement was signed by the U.

Tidbits Every U.S. Government debt instrument except the two-year Treasury note traded at levels with yields more than 5% yesterday. The 10-year Treasury bond yield traded at prices so low that the yield moved above 5% to a 20-year high at 5.14%! Higher interest rates are bearish for the economy for obvious reasons and especially commodities because the cost of storage increases. The higher storage costs are, the less likely grain will remain in storage. China: The world mark

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits With so many world leaders at the UN in New York this week, there are many news reports about plans to end the two wars. All that “peace by Christmas talk” is having a negative impact on the price of corn and especially wheat. Louis Dreyfus Company has nearly completed the construction of its soybean processing plant in Upper Sandusky, Ohio. The facility will have oil blending and packaging capabilities and will distribute a variety of vegetable oils and food ingredie

Tidbits Brazilian farmers had planted 1.2% of the expected area for their 2026/27 soybean crop, ahead of last year’s pace. First corn crop planting reached 27% in the center-south region, compared with 22% a week earlier and 25% a year ago. Despite the strong pace, low temperatures have constrained progress in some areas, with isolated corn fields hit by frost over the past two weeks, AgRural said. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ​said on Monday that Uruguay had

Tidbits Early harvest corn yields: We have received 7 feedbacks that include harvested yields from mid-size farmers from Indiana to Western Iowa. They uniformly say corn yields are not bad, but 20 bushels less than last year Early harvested acres are usually the worst yielding in dry areas. However, most of these disappointing yields are blamed on poor pollination, not dry weather. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng yesterday a

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 51,683, -891 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $100.3, +0.31. Dollar Index settled at 100.21, +1.12. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 3,370, -137. Corn December futures settled at $5.27½, -2¾¢ for the week. Basis (Z =

Tidbits All indications are the XI/Trump meeting for Thursday are still on schedule. Q&A: Urea Price From Russ: "Looked at spring urea. This late summer was 460. Two weeks ago 570. Now 620. Every time they told us to wait - CHS has not taken a position on spring tons yet. Missing the boat?" China resumed urea exports in late May 2026, with the main export window and significant shipments beginning in July 2026. Producing nitrogen fertilizer takes a tremendous amount of heat.

Tidbits Flash Sales: USDA announced yesterday the sale of 111,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. China, Reuters reports: China agreed to purchase 25 million mts of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028 at the Busan summit in South Korea last year. U.S. officials say China then agreed to add on another $17 billion in other agricultural product purchases during Trump's visit to Beijing in May. China has never acknowledged those agreements but is nonetheless on track to meet t

Tidbits Logistics: Iowa has issued weight-limit exemptions for vehicles up to 90,000 pounds gross weight transporting corn, soybeans, hay, straw, silage, stover, fertilizer, manure, and distiller grains. The waiver is effective until October 10 and was granted to help mitigate traffic concerns during harvest time. A farmer association said the waiver will allow a 1,000-acre farmer to use 26 fewer truckloads during this harvest, which is significant during the high fuel prices

Tidbits The Federal Reserve increased the Fed Fund rate 25 basis points (from 3.75% to 4%). The decision by the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee was unanimous. The Fed chair attributed this to the fight against inflation. This was the first time the Fed had raised rates in three years; prior to that, it had cut rates three times in 2024 and three times in 2025. Donald Trump sharply criticized the FOMC’s decision to raise the benchmark interest rate, stating that it was

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 1 PM Central Time today. The market expects a quarter percent point increase. Did China suspend the tariffs on U.S. soybeans? Around 11 AM Central time yesterday a marketing service reported China had lifted the tariff on U.S. beans. However, we could find no confirmation of such action. We do expect that will be one of the positive things that will be announced next week when China’s President Xi comes t

Tidbits Friday's key reversal on the soybeans (new contract high followed by a close lower than the previous day's low) was negated by yesterday's higher close. As a general rule, a lack of follow through on the next trading day is needed to confirm a technical trend change. Fuel & Fertilizer: Diesel prices are climbing fast, and farmers are feeling it in real time. U.S. diesel prices have surged 60% since the start of the war in Iran. With another 30¢ jump in just a week, th

Tidbits The three-day 18th BRICS Summit held in New Delhi, India concluded yesterday. Chinese President Xi Jinping urged member nations to help end the war in the Middle East, positioning the BRICS bloc as a force for global stability. Russian business envoy Kirill Dmitriev confirmed an agreement on the BRICS payment system has been reached to bring a financial clearing system within trading partners. However, other issues of financial cooperation are also in focus. According