Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Managing the Money Supply With a leadership change coming in May at the Federal Reserve, it is time to revisit a topic we covered several years ago. In the days before paper currency, there were very few money supply problems. As populations grew and society shifted from agrarian to industrialized economy, the ever-expanding need for more money in the money supply accelerated. Thus, paper money was introduced and it was much more convenient than carrying a pound or two of me

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 50,116, +1,223 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $63.5, -2.24. Dollar Index settled at 97.68, +0.53. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 1,923, -225. Corn March futures settled at $4.30¼, +2¢ for the week.

February S&D Estimates The USDA will release the S&D report on February 10 at 11 AM Central Time. Market estimates U.S. soybean and wheat carryover to decrease about 1%, corn carryover is anticipated to stay unchanged. Note: "Ending Stocks" aka "Carryover." World carryover is seen a bit higher for corn and beans. Brazilian crops estimates may increase while decreasing for Argentina. Estimates compiled by DTN: Q&A: Put Options and Risk Management From a client in Iowa: "Thanks

Tidbits Beef: President Donald Trump signed an executive order Friday aimed at making beef more affordable for Americans by increasing the allowable imports of lean beef trimmings from Argentina. The executive order, titled Ensuring Affordable Beef for the American Consumer, temporarily increases the import quota quantity of lean beef trimmings under the U.S. tariff-rate quota by 80,000 metric tons, allocating the additional volume entirely to Argentina. U.S. Basis: GraInfor

Tidbits Next Tuesday, February 10, the USDA will release its S&D (WASDE) report. Reuters released its survey of analysts ahead of the report, showing an average 2025/26 carryout estimates: Corn - 2.227 billion bushels (same as in January S&D) Soybean - 347 million bushel (350 mil in January) Wheat - 918 million bushels (926 mil in January) Yesterday’s soybean trade volume reached roughly 930,000 contracts, marking a new all‑time record. U.S. net farm income would fall 0.7% to

Tidbits China is considering buying more U.S.-farmed soybeans, President Donald Trump said after what he called "very positive" talks with President Xi Jinping yesterday. In a goodwill gesture two months before Trump's expected visit to Beijing, Trump said Xi would consider hiking soybean purchases from the United States to 20 million metric tons in the current season, up from 12 million mts previously. March soybean futures rallied to $11.15 yesterday, but settled at $10.92,

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change

Tidbits Biofuels consultant and VP of Montana Renewables, Corey Lavinsky, reported progress yesterday on 45Z: “The U.S. Treasury Department expects a 45Z specific version of USDA’s Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator to be used to calculate carbon intensity in the 45ZCF-GREET model. Unfortunately, the calculator isn't ready yet. The public hearing date for 45Z isn't until May 28, 2026, so this will be a long process. The proposed regulations for the 45Z Clean Fuel Productio

Tidbits India & Oils: President Trump announced yesterday the U.S. and India have reached a trade agreement and will begin lowering tariffs on each other’s goods immediately. The U.S. will cut its reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 18% and India will “move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers against the United States to zero.” Trump wrote on Truth Social that India also committed to buy American goods “at a much higher level, in addition to over $500 billi

What is wrong with the way we market ag commodities in this country? When grain is contracted for deferred delivery at a fixed price, the grain elevator hedges those bushels in the futures market. That enables them to pay the farmer the contracted price when he delivers the grain later. For example, in June you execute a December corn HTA (or forward contract) at $4.40 on 50,000 bushels. When you deliver the corn in October, December corn is $3.60. The elevator sells your c

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 48,892, -206 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $65.74, +4.46. Dollar Index settled at 97.15, -0.31. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,148, +386. Corn March futures settled at $4.28¼, -2¼¢ for the week.

Tidbits Shutdown: The Senate voted Friday to fund most of the federal government through the end of September, coupled with a temporary, two-week funding extension for the Department of Homeland Security. Since the Senate version of government funding is different from the funding legislation the House passed, the government officially shut down this weekend. The House will be back in session tomorrow to consider the Senate version of funding and is expected to approve it.

Tidbits President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Fed Chair Powell in May. Warsh is a lawyer and distinguished visiting fellow in economics at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Warsh has said he believes the president is right to press the Fed for steep rate cuts and has criticized the central bank for underestimating the inflation-busting potential of productivity growth supercharged by artificial intelligence. He has also called for a broad overhaul, a "regim

Tidbits The government will have a partial shutdown at midnight tonight unless the Senate can find 5 more votes to advance a House approved spending package. The Democrats said they would not support any legislation if it included funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Eight Republicans joined nearly all Democrats in voting no. One “no” vote by Senate Majority Leader John Thune was strictly a parliamentary procedural reason, to be able to request a vote to rec

Tidbits Futures: March soybeans, and all three March wheat contracts made new highs for the year yesterday and March corn traded to its highest price since before the USDA S&D on 12 January, despite the dollar index being a little higher yesterday for the second day in the past 8 days. Prices were supported by higher crude oil, cold temperatures (more soybean meal and corn for feed demand, fewer farmer sales, potential winter kill on wheat), expected strong export sales today

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 110,000 mts of old crop corn and 306,000 mts of old crop sorghum to unknown. The dollar index has lost 3.4% in the last 6 trading days. That is supposed to be super bullish for U.S. exports, especially wheat. The storm across the U.S. has cut electricity to millions of people in the U.S., which contributed to reducing crude oil production by 2 million barrels per day and reducing natural gas production by m

Tidbits Basis: Poet at Fairbank, Iowa weakened their corn basis by 5¢ yesterday. Corning, Iowa Poet firmed their basis 2¢. Many corn river bids were 2 to 3¢ firmer. Cargill weakened their soybean basis in Sioux City, Iowa by 5¢ to -35H, but firmed their bean basis in Sidney, Ohio by 18¢ to +10H. ADM in Des Moines, Iowa firmed their bean basis by 5¢ to -30H. A U.S. government shutdown is possible by the end of the week, which could impact the bridge payments expected in Febr

Tidbits Mexico has become the largest buyer of U.S. corn. Trump is increasing pressure on Cuba to cause the communist regime to collapse. Now that Venezuela is not shipping crude to Cuba, Mexico is the largest supplier of crude oil and refined products to Cuba. Mexican President Sheinbaum has said Mexico will continue crude oil shipments to Cuba, saying they are based on long term contracts and considered international aid. However, senior Mexican government sources said the

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 49,099, -261 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $61.28, +1.98. Dollar Index settled at 97.46, -1.92. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 1,762, +230. Corn March futures settled at $4.30½, +5¾¢ for the week.