BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits The USDA will release its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) at 11 AM Central Time today. As expected, CBOT ag markets were higher yesterday as they recovered from oversold conditions the previous two days. The market will trade the production numbers in the few first minutes or so after the report is released, then the market will trade the U.S. carryover numbers for 3 to 20 minutes, and then the market will trade the world carryovers in

Tidbits The U.S. House Agriculture Committee  plans to pass a five-year reauthorization of USDA’s grain inspection program, updating the United States Grain Standards Reauthorization Act (expiring Sept. 30) to promote new technology, including a requirement for USDA to prioritize adopting improved grain grading tech and an exemption of equipment and tech costs from the 30% cap on administrative expenses; NGFA's Mike Seyfert calls it a “must-pass” for the grain value chain, wh

Tidbits Harvest:  There were many more areas in the Corn Belt than we expected that started harvest this weekend. The early yield results were reported to be less than expected, even areas where the weather was considered quite good, such as Northwest Iowa. Maybe the better-than-expected yields, if any, did not get reported. Of course, the worst yields for the 2025 crop will be the early harvest acres given the August weather.         The Corn Belt weather for the next two we

Tidbits Crude oil:  OPEC is meeting today to consider another round of production increases reflecting their expectation demand for crude oil will increase into the first part 2026 at the least. However, the EIA, most international banks, and consulting firms predict a crude oil surplus with expecting crude oil to go to $50 later this year.   Interest rate:  On Friday morning, there was a sudden change in probability of an interest rate change for the next Fed meeting on 16 a

Tidbits Yesterday was the last trading day of the week, the month, and the marketing year for corn and soybeans. Unusual things can happen in a market on such days and so it was yesterday!   Corn  was sharply higher yesterday without any new news. We all know that yields will most likely come down in the coming months, corn and wheat exports are great and bean exports are great considering China is not buying any U.S. beans, ethanol crush is good, dry weather and disease will

Tidbits A Chinese commerce  minister is scheduled to visit the U.S. and talk to trade deputies. While this is not part of the ongoing negotiations, it is seen as a goodwill gesture. The human case of screwworm  reported this week by U.S. health officials is the country's only one so far this year and poses no risk to the farm sector, a U.S. Department of Agriculture official said on Tuesday. Crude oil was lower yesterday, despite the Ukraine conflict and its impact on Russian

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning the USDA reported the sale of 228,606 mts of new crop corn to Mexico. U.S. soybean  farmers, led by the American Soybean Association (ASA), urged President Trump in a Tuesday letter to secure a trade deal with China that delivers substantial U.S. soybean sales, warning of dire long-term consequences if China remains a major buyer of Brazil and delays purchases from the United States. China is the world’s largest soybean importer and it ha

Tidbits The 33rd Annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour  begins today and will end on Thursday. It will provide some definitive information about pollination and ear fill. The same routes are covered every year, which means the value of this tour is determined by yield comparison with previous years, not the USDA August numbers.     Call options:  We discussed yesterday the pros and cons of buying March 2026 corn $4.20 strike price call for 20½¢. The March $5.00 call has a premium (valu

Tidbits Russia-Ukraine:  On the surface, Trump’s meeting with President Putin was a total failure. Trump had said he wanted a cease fire in Russia’s war with Ukraine and a framework for a lasting peace. The culture of Eastern Europe and a lack of a Ukrainian representative made Trump’s goals highly unlikely. The anti-Trumper news media is jumping all over this failure. However, Trump and Putin showed friendliness and mutual respect at their press conference. Trump was asked t

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale  of 125,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown and 227,160 mts of new crop corn to a “different” unknown.   The futures financials priced-in a 75% probability the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rate  25 basis points (0.25%) in September, up from 45% before yesterday’s jobs data, which showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 77,000 in July, well below market expectations of 110,000. Worse yet, 258,000 job gains were removed from

Tidbits Of all the railroads, BNSF Railway  (BNSF) originates the most grain carloads. Most of BNSF’s corn shipments are moved by shuttle trains (“shuttles”) made up of 110-120 hopper cars. Powered by a dedicated locomotive, each train moves as a single unit. BNSF’s shuttles are auctioned to shippers for yearlong contracts, during which shippers control where their shuttles load and unload.   BNSF’s shuttle program began shortly after the railroad’s founding in 1995. In 2000,

Tidbits The lowest September corn  closing prices this year were: $3.98 on 8 July $3.96 on 11 July $3.98½ on 23 July (yesterday)   After closing higher 4 out of 5 days, September corn has closed lower 3 consecutive days: 4¾¢, then 4½ ¢, then ¾¢ yesterday, a total of 10¢ in 3 days. The technical tool, Average Directional Index  (ADX), measures the strength of the trend, not its direction. A rising ADX suggests a strong trend, while a falling ADX indicates a weakening trend or

Tidbits August CBOT options expire  Friday.   Historical data suggests that poor corn pollination due to heat or drought could result in yield losses ranging from 1.5 bushels per acre per day of extreme heat (95+°F) during pollination which is approximately 0.8-1% per day based on a 182 bushels/acre trend yield. President Trump on Tuesday said the U.S. and Japan  have struck a deal that will lower the hefty tariffs he had threatened to impose on goods from Japan while extract

Tidbits In observance of  Independence Day , the Grains at the CME and MIAX will close at their normal time on Thursday, July 3rd. Then they will be closed Thursday night and Friday. They will reopen the night of Sunday, July 6th as usual. The White House announced yesterday morning a trade deal with Vietnam  had been reached, which had been expected. Trump is expected to close several trade deals prior to the July 9 deadline.   Why were corn, wheat, and beans markets so stro

Tidbits On June 23, crude oil  prices plummeted over 6%, after Iran launched a missile attack on the U.S. military base at Al Udeid in Qatar in retaliation for U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, which had initially pushed Brent to a five-month high. Iran’s attack, which Iran’s officials linked to the broader escalation following U.S. and Israeli actions, did not disrupt oil or gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and Qatar Energy reported no i

Tidbits Corey Lavinsky, a biofuel  analyst with S&P Global, reported yesterday morning the EPA proposed to reduce the value of RINs by 50% for biofuels that are imported or made in the U.S. using foreign feedstocks. EPA also proposed biofuel volume requirements for 2026 & 2027 are much higher than most people's expectations for Biomass-based diesel (BBD).   The EPA proposal requires total biofuel blending volumes at 24.02 billion gallons in 2026 and 24.46 billion in 2027; the

Highlights Israel launched missile strikes on Iran.  Crude oil prices spiked by almost $9 but then traded $3 lower from the peak. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the goal of the strikes on Iran was to attack Iranian missile facilities, “the heart of Iran's nuclear enrichment programme”. He stressed that the main goal was to eliminate the threat to Israel and the operation will continue “for as many days as necessary”. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated

Tidbits Argentina's  Rosario Grain Exchange is warning that the country stands to lose significant corn and soybean meal export share to Vietnam in the wake of a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal.   In the area of Boa Esperança Do Norte, Mato Grosso  a record yield of safrinha corn was announced: 223 bushels/acre (233.16 60Kg-bags/hectare).    AgRural raised Brazil’s  corn production to 128.5 million mts (USDA 130), supporting medium-term supply. However, AgRural warns early planting i

Highlights Multiple U.S. sources, including President Trump, said yesterday that trade negotiations with China  are going nowhere and perhaps backwards. That news is not a big surprise as there has been no news about the negotiations. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US-China trade deal is at risk of falling apart over rare earth minerals.   The U.S. trade deficit  narrowed to $87.6 billion in April, down $74.6 billion (46%) from a record $162.3 billion in March. The

Tidbits The National Weather Service predicts the Eastern Corn Belt  will finally get some dry weather in the next two weeks. Perhaps all the corn will get planted in Indiana and Ohio after all. Tractors were in the West Central Ohio fields yesterday, but the soil is really too wet for a good crop growth. Compaction will be a problem in the Eastern Corn Belt. Aluísio Pancracio is the owner of Sastra Consultoria based in the municipality of Rio Verde, in the state of Goiás, Br