BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits S&D: Today at 11AM Central time the USDA will release its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which is known as WASDE or just S&D and includes U.S. estimates. The key numbers will be corn and soybean yields for the 2025 crops and changes in demand for old and new crops. The market expects record corn yield by more than 5 bushels per acre and a record bean yield by almost a full bushel. Most market analysts say soybeans were sharply higher ye

Tidbits Export Markets by Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities Saturday 9 August 2025: Soybean Premiums (basis)  Continue to Rise, Brazilian Corn Can't Compete   This past week the soybean market was marked by intense demand from China, which purchased more than 40 vessels. This strong demand is driving up premiums for Brazilian soybeans, making them increasingly expensive and difficult to trade, not only due to rising prices but also due to logistical challenges and a lack

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 44,176, +587 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $63.35, -3.91. Dollar Index  settled at 98.27, -0.42. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 2,051, +33. Corn September futures  settled at $3.82¾, -6¾¢ for the week. December futures settled at $4.05½, -5¼¢ for the week. Basis   (U = September; e.g. 10N

Tidbits Trade estimates for USDA's August S&D on Tuesday: President Trump  will meet President Putin  in Alaska this Friday to discuss tariffs, sanctions, ending the war, etc.   Baker Hughes  reported there were 539 oil and gas drilling rigs in operation last week in the USA. That is 1 less than a week ago and 49 fewer than a year ago. Canada had 180 rigs drilling this past week, 3 more than the previous week, but 37 fewer than a year ago.

Tidbits Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 125,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown. Relationship of the U.S. dollar exchange rate and grain prices Conventional wisdom is the exchange rate of the dollar is a major factor in the sale of U.S. products to foreign buyers and it most certainly is. For example, Japan used to be the number one importer of U.S. agricultural products for decades before the emergence of China, Mexico, and Canada as big buyers, but Japan is

Tidbits Corn: The corn market got two news items yesterday morning to encourage some serious buying of corn futures. USDA weekly export sales report yesterday morning showed corn sales were fifth highest weekly sales of all time. Three of the four higher weekly corn sales included large quantities sold to China in the fall of 2021. Soybean and wheat export sales were also above the top of the range of pre-report estimates.  That takes the total new crop sales to 11.777 millio

Tidbits Basis: Delphos, Ohio Bunge soybean crush plant weakened their fall delivery basis by 5¢ to -35X (35¢ under November futures) on Monday or Tuesday. Producers Ag’s Canton, Kansas facility weakened their fall delivery corn basis by 5¢ to -35Z (35¢ under December) yesterday as did Cargill at its corn syrup plant in Dayton, Ohio to -25Z.   If you have not made a decision about setting fall delivery basis, make it today. That does not mean you should blindly set the basis o

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the sales size or

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 128,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown. Oils: Karen Braun reported that the U.S. cooking oil imports fell to a 16-month low in June, but first half 2025 used cooking oil imports were up 9% from a year ago. Starting January 2026, only biofuel feedstock from Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. will be eligible for the tax credits. North America soybean oil and canola oil will be the main feedstock for biofuels and

Tidbits Crude & palm oil:  India’s top crude refiners did not purchase any crude from Russia last week after President Trump threatened secondary tariffs on the buyers of Russian products. However, alternative crude sources were so few, the Indians decided to off-load more than 3 million barrels of Russia’s flagship Urals grade over the weekend. Bloomberg reports that Indian Prime Minister Modi did not instruct local oil refineries to stop purchasing Russian oil and did not m

Tidbits On Sunday, OPEC+  reached a preliminary deal to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day beginning in September as concerns mount over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia amid increasing U.S. pressure on India to halt Russian oil purchases, part of Trump’s effort to bring Moscow to the negotiating table for a peace deal with Ukraine.   The Federal Reserve  Governor Adriana Kugler has resigned from her position with the Fed effective 8 August. She w

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 43,589, -1,313 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $67.26, +2.19. Dollar Index  settled at 98.69, +1.02. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 2,018, -239. Corn September futures  settled at $3.89½, -10¢ for the week. December futures settled at $4.10¾, -8¼¢ for the week. Basis   (U = September; e.g.

Tidbits The USDA reported the June 2025 crush numbers  on Friday: Soybeans: 197 million bushels, up 7.6% from a year ago, the market expected 196.6 million bushels; Canola: 166,486 tons, down more than 15%; Cottonseed: once refined oil production down 13%; Corn: 498 million bushels in total and 448 million bushels for ethanol, both were down very slightly from a year ago.       The Labor Department’s  statistics chief was fired Friday by Trump. The weaker-than-expected July j

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale  of 125,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown and 227,160 mts of new crop corn to a “different” unknown.   The futures financials priced-in a 75% probability the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rate  25 basis points (0.25%) in September, up from 45% before yesterday’s jobs data, which showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 77,000 in July, well below market expectations of 110,000. Worse yet, 258,000 job gains were removed from

Tidbits The whole world is waiting for news about the tariffs that President Donald Trump is expected to announce today. President Trump granted Mexico a 90-day reprieve from higher tariffs to negotiate a broader trade deal, after a call with Mexican President Sheinbaum, avoiding a 30% duty on most Mexican non-automotive and non-metal goods under USMCA. Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale of: 100,000 mts of new crop corn to Colombia 140,000 mts of new crop corn to S

Tidbits The U.S. GDP  for the second quarter at 3%, market expected just 2.3%. As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. For the first time since 1993, two Federal Reserve officials dissented from the majority decision out of total 11 votes, advocating for a rate cut. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, both Trump appointees, broke with the majority. The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged

Tidbits Today is the day that all August futures positions and basis contracts must be liquidated before the close and the Federal Reserve will announce its decision about interest rates  about the time the CBOT grain quits trading. Iowachill.com reported maximum wind speed  Monday night/Tuesday morning: U.S. and Chinese  officials agreed to seek an extension of their 90-day tariff truce after two days of talks in Stockholm, with no major breakthroughs announced. The decision

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the sales size or

Tidbits Multiple weather forecasters stated yesterday conditions were forming that could produce a Derecho last night from Central South Dakota southeast through Iowa into Illinois.     Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 35,000 mt of old crop corn to unknown 194,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown 225,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico.   US and Chinese  officials met Monday in Sweden, trying to agree to extend the trade truce that is set to expire August 12.

Tidbits The U.S. struck a framework trade deal with the EU  on Sunday, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, but averting a spiraling battle between the two economic powers which account for almost a third of global trade. The announcement came after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen traveled for talks with President Trump at his golf course in Western Scotland. They shook hands on a hard-fought deal.   The deal mirrors key parts of the framework agr