BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, cha

Tidbits U.S. harvest  of soybeans was estimated 96% complete by a Reuters poll (last week 91%) and corn 92% complete (last week 83%). Winter wheat planting was about 95% complete, up from 91% last week, and 52% of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, unchanged from last week. U.S. imports  of containerized goods declined 7.5% year-over-year in October, with shipments from China dropping 16.3% as importers tempered expectations amid evolving tariff policies. Chin

Tidbits Inflation: Two weeks ago, the U.S. inflation rate for the past 12 months was reported to be 3%, way above the Federal Reserve’s stated goal of 2%. Three days later, the Fed reduced the Fed Fund Rate. Chairman Jerome Powell said, “Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal."   In August 1971, the U.S. annual inflation rate reached an "intolerable" 3% and all financial “experts” pr

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 46,987, -576 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $59.84, -1.04. Dollar Index  settled at 99.56, -0.16. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 2,104, +138. Corn December futures settled at $4.27¼, -4¼¢ for th

Market Plan Utilizing Put Options Last weekend, we presented a market plan to lock in a floor price for soybeans near breakeven at no cost upfront while using puts options to capture further price gains should additional price gains become available.   A feature of that plan is it removes all stress from catching a price near or even above the high for the year.   The first step is to use a HTA to lock-in a floor price. Then place open orders to buy puts at ever higher strike

Tidbits The USDA  will issue its first S&D in two months on Friday, 14 November. The biggest question is what will the corn yield be? Estimates: StoneX: 186 Dr. Cordonnier: 181 Pro Farmer: 182.7 S&P Global: 189.1 Farm Journal: 178.5 Informa: 185 Bloomberg: 185 ADM Investor Services: 180   Note that all of those estimates at 185 or more serve clients who are grain merchants or end users. ADM Investor Services is a wholly owned subsidiary of ADM but supposedly operates independ

Tidbits China purchased earlier this week one Panamax load of 60,000 mts of soft white wheat and another 60,000 mts of spring wheat according to traders in the export business, as Reuters reported yesterday. Delivery will be in December. “The expectation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of an event” is a fancy way to say, “Buy the rumor and sell the fact.”  The rumor the past two weeks was China will buy U.S. wheat. That rumor had Soft Red Winter Wheat

Tidbits Corn: There were multiple reports that farmer sales of corn increased yesterday. December corn has tested the 200 day moving average 2 of the last 5 days. That moving average line is at $4.36½ today. Dec corn has been below the 200 day moving average since 6 June. So it is major technical resistance! We do expect corn and beans to weaken in the coming days because Friday next week is the first S&D from USDA in two months. Shutdown: Reportedly 8 Democrat senators have

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, cha

Tidbits The price of U.S. beans at the Gulf plus freight to China was $496 per mt on Friday, while beans from Brazil plus freight to China were $494. Monday evening, Gulf beans plus freight to China were $510 and Brazil beans were $492. China reportedly bought seven Panamax shiploads of U.S. soybeans last week, the first U.S. beans to China this year. Over the weekend, China bought 20 shiploads of beans from Brazil. Thus, China has bought about 420,000 mts of U.S. beans and h

Tidbits China bought 20 shiploads of Brazil’s soybeans over the weekend.   Bloomberg reported that China is seeking U.S. wheat offers for December through February shipment. That supported corn yesterday. The U.S. will suspend port fees for a year on China-linked vessels starting November 10 as part of deescalating maritime tensions, Bloomberg reports. The White House says the pause of measures aimed at countering China’s shipping dominance will last one year while the U.S. n

Tidbits Crude oil:  Yesterday OPEC+ agreed to maintain its 137,000 million barrels per day oil production increase for December, but decided to pause production increases for the first three months of 2026.   Trump said late Thursday Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum are working to finalize an agreement that would see China make a “very large transaction” of Alaskan oil and gas.   Ukraine:  CNN reported that the Pentagon has approved t

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 47,563, +356 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $60.88, -0.56. Dollar Index  settled at 99.72, +0.78. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,966, -25. Corn December futures settled at $4.31½, +8¼¢ for the

Soybeans Market & Risk Management There are three primary reasons farmers sell corn, wheat, and beans when they do.   The most common reason is farmers sell grain when they need the money. Since most farmers need money about the same time, that is why the lows are made as farmers sell about three-fourths of their grain in the bottom fourth of the year's price range.   The second reason farmers sell grain is because the price is profitable, so they sell some grain and hold bac

Tidbits Soybean export:  CHS reports that China bought at least four cargoes of soybeans on Friday. Shipments are scheduled for December and January and will originate from both the PNW and the Gulf.   A trader with “inside” connections says the USDA has 20 million mts of soybean exports to China plugged into the S&D for this marketing year. If so, the China deal will not result in an increase in exports on the next USDA S&D.   OPEC  will meet tomorrow to discuss December pro

Tidbits The government shutdown has reached day 30, approaching the record. The longest shutdown in U.S. history of 35 days occurred during Donald Trump's first presidency in 2019. The ongoing one has already cost the U.S. economy $7-14 billion, according to a new report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Medicine:  Farmers and ranchers could face a major premium hike as expanded Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits expire at year’s end unless Congress acts. W

Tidbits The meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping lasted approximately 1 hour and 40 minutes. At the start of the talks, Trump stated that Beijing and Washington had already reached agreement on many issues and would continue this work during the summit. Following the talks, Trump headed straight to his special plane without making a joint statement. Trump’s comments on board Air Force One were the first we got on how these talks progressed. There has been no official statemen

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the sales size or

Tidbits We have added pricing comments for soybeans & fuel to the Weekly Summary & Recommendations, make sure to take a look. U.S.-China: President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet Thursday in Asia. That means they will talk while Americans are sleeping. The Wall Street Journal reports the U.S. and China have agreed to reduce port fees on vessels over 80,000 mts, which was a major point of contention. Most grain is shipped in Panamax vessels which gross 55,000

Tidbits December oats  settled 12 cents lower Monday. Oats are a feed grain and so is corn. Oats knows! Сrop progress estimates  were released by Reuters as of 10/26/25: the corn harvest is estimated at 72% with a range of 67-80%, soybean harvest at 84% complete with a range of 80-88%, and winter wheat planting 84% complete with a range of 81-89%. Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn and soybean yield estimates unchanged at 181 bpa and 52 bpa respectively. He projects th