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Tidbits, Corn Technical Outlook, Brazilian Corn Area, FOB 12/22/25

Corn Technical Outlook


Technical analysis is based upon factors that have nothing to do with supply and demand. Technical analysis includes price chart patterns, trading volume, open interest changes, moving averages, etc. Most speculative traders are technicians, so it behooves us to understand the basics of technical analysis. You can learn more about fundamental analysis and some amazing things about technical analysis at:

 

We report the position change of the commercial trader and big speculative funds every Sunday as part of our “Weekly Basis” when possible. The recent government shut-down has caused delays in the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports. The most recent one we have was as of 18 November, which we reported to you yesterday morning: Big Spec Funds change was -13,552 to 9,718 net long. That means the big spec funds were net sellers of 13,552 corn futures contracts (5,000 bushels each) during the week ending the previous Tuesday, leaving them with a net long (buy) position of 9,718 contracts. You can see in the chart (green line) below that the big specs were net short corn from early May to the second week of November:

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Note how the open interest of the spec funds moves opposite the open interest of the commercials. The spec funds provide the willing risk takers for commercials (hedgers) to lay-off their price risk with their hedges. That demonstrates why the futures market needs speculators.  

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