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US Economy, Put Options, Export Sales, Markets & Rain Days Update 04/29/2022


The US economy in the first quarter contracted 1.4% vs. expectations of 1% growth. The people managing the economy have the same feeling you would have after buying a 300 HP tractor and when you get it in the field, you realize it can’t be more than 175 HP. Suddenly, the supposedly strong US economy may be facing a recession.

If the Fed raises the interest rate the next three months as planned, the economy will have much more difficulty to grow. If the Fed does not increase interest rates, inflation will most likely continue to be a curse on the future of our economy. The Fed is now between a rock and hard place. Once again, this economic mess continues to be government engineered.

Germany has agreed to stop buying Russian oil, clearing the way for a European Union ban on crude imports from Russia.

Andrey Sizov cut the Ukrainian wheat crop estimate and increased their corn crop.

Ukraine and Bulgaria have reached an agreement on transporting Ukrainian grain via the Bulgarian port of Varna on the western end of the Black Sea (away from Russia).

Soybean oil contracts made all-time highs by a substantial margin the past two days.

Some analysts are lowering the Brazil corn crop estimate to 108 million mt (USDA at 116).

September corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is around the equivalent of $11.56 per bushel.

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