The Corn Belt is expected to get some scattered showers off and on next week. It looks like everyone should get at least a half inch. If actual rainfall comes as predicted, for most of you it will be nice, but it will not make the corn crop. Throw-in July options expired yesterday, the markets were over-bought (too high, too fast), and it was the end of a week, profit-taking was the order of the day. We still have a week before July arrives. We are a very long way from making a crop.
Kevin Duling is a futures broker, market advisor and all around good guy from Maupin, Oregon (541 980 4554 and firstname.lastname@example.org). He sums up the corn situation:
"Damage is being done to the corn crop. One agronomist stated the crop is deciding right now how many kernels per round it develops on the cob. Given the dry state and some heat this week, it seems a good bet the plants will develop a 12 kernel loop instead of 14, or 14 instead of 16, etc. Only 2 kernels per loop may not sound like much, but that is 15%. 15% off of a 177 yield would be 150 bpa. I’m not at 150 bpa yet, but you can see stress now will have a result later. The plant can get some of that back if perfect weather here out, but not all of that 15% will return. Given the massive deficits and dry soil, it will take much more than normal rainfall to make the crop. In 20 days, the crop will need up to 0.3” of available water per day."
Roger has heard enough about poor stands across the Corn Belt, he is thinking 6 to 8 bushels (maybe more than 10) have been lost and will not be recovered no matter how good the weather is in July.