BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits NOPA crush  for August was expected to be 182.857 million bushels; actual was 189.810 million bushels, a 20% increase from a year ago. Better yet, soy oil stocks were 53 million pounds less than expected at 1.245 billion pounds. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 148.971 mts of 2025 corn to unknown. China: President Trump said yesterday he would be speaking to Chinese President Xi this Friday. Poland’s closed border with Belarus has frozen t

Tidbits The U.S. House Agriculture Committee  plans to pass a five-year reauthorization of USDA’s grain inspection program, updating the United States Grain Standards Reauthorization Act (expiring Sept. 30) to promote new technology, including a requirement for USDA to prioritize adopting improved grain grading tech and an exemption of equipment and tech costs from the 30% cap on administrative expenses; NGFA's Mike Seyfert calls it a “must-pass” for the grain value chain, wh

Tidbits Frost: It is going to be quite chilly tomorrow morning in the Upper Midwest, and, yes, it could frost, but there is no serious threat of a killing frost, but the weather forecast could change. Do not be buying corn futures solely due to frost. Tuesday’s major PMI  reports: Canada manufacturing: 48.3 vs 46.8 expected, S&P Global U.S. manufacturing: 53.0 vs 53.3 expected, S&P Global U.S. manufacturing: 48.7 vs 48.2 expected, ISM U.S. forces in the Caribbean fired upon a

Tidbits Cattle and feeder cattle  were lower yesterday after a report this weekend of the first human screwworm case in the U.S. which was found in Maryland. The person had just returned from El Salvador. The Fed: Yesterday President Trump fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook because she claimed two homes were her main residence on her mortgage applications. Wheat: Seven of the last ten years, soft red winter December wheat futures made its low in the last half of August

Tidbits Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. President Trump expressed hope that their White House summit yesterday with European leaders could eventually result in trilateral talks with President Putin over ending Russia’s war on Ukraine. Meanwhile, the war continues with no end in sight. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 124,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown. Pesticides:  The Make America Healthy Again Commission expects to recommend no action

Tidbits S&D: Today at 11AM Central time the USDA will release its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which is known as WASDE or just S&D and includes U.S. estimates. The key numbers will be corn and soybean yields for the 2025 crops and changes in demand for old and new crops. The market expects record corn yield by more than 5 bushels per acre and a record bean yield by almost a full bushel. Most market analysts say soybeans were sharply higher ye

Tidbits Crude & palm oil:  India’s top crude refiners did not purchase any crude from Russia last week after President Trump threatened secondary tariffs on the buyers of Russian products. However, alternative crude sources were so few, the Indians decided to off-load more than 3 million barrels of Russia’s flagship Urals grade over the weekend. Bloomberg reports that Indian Prime Minister Modi did not instruct local oil refineries to stop purchasing Russian oil and did not m

Tidbits Multiple weather forecasters stated yesterday conditions were forming that could produce a Derecho last night from Central South Dakota southeast through Iowa into Illinois.     Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 35,000 mt of old crop corn to unknown 194,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown 225,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico.   US and Chinese  officials met Monday in Sweden, trying to agree to extend the trade truce that is set to expire August 12.

Tidbits Those of you who must deliver corn and beans this fall , if you have not already assessed production in your area versus normal production compared to the fall delivery basis being offered now, get with it. Normally, fall delivery basis needs to be set very late July or the first week of August. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes  closed at record highs  yesterday, as optimism over strong corporate earnings outweighed ongoing trade tensions. It is very discouraging

Tidbits Yesterday’s new crop corn futures  price action was technically significant. For example, December corn made new contract lows and then traded higher than Friday’s high and settled even with Friday’s high. If it had settled higher than Friday’s high, that would have been a trend changing indicator called a “key reversal.” If December corn had closed just under Friday's high, that would have been a “hook reversal,” a bullish indicator, but not as bullish as a key rever

Tidbits In hindsight, Sunday’s CBOT opening was heavily influenced by disappointment that there were no  trade deals  announced by President Trump Thursday evening despite the number of rain days in the Western Corn Belt declining during the weekend. We expected the weather forecast to provide more support than it did. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday morning that the Trump administration will announce several trade deals or tariff actions within the next 48 ho

Tidbits Former Minnesota farmer, now Brazil’s 25-year experienced agricultural consultant, Kory Melby, posted on X yesterday afternoon: “I think today's corn market action will reverse quickly in the coming days as the models revert back to old forecasts. I think today was a counter trend move fake out.” Cash soybean export trader, Eduardo Vanin, with AgrInvest Commodities in Brazil reported yesterday soybeans from Brazil net cost  to China for September shipment was 215¢ ove

Highlights Compared to July, the NOPA August crush decreased 14% to 158.008 million bu. The market expected 171.325! The August crush was down 2% from a year ago. This is the lowest August total since 2017 and the lowest monthly total since September 2021. Soybean crush for marketing year just completed set monthly records for 10 out of the 12 months.    The soy oil inventory on August 31st was 1.138 billion pounds, down from 1.499 billion last month. The market expected 1.35

Highlights A developing tropical storm that is expected to track through the Gulf of Mexico and hit parts of Texas and Louisiana by Thursday will hit 60% of the US refining capacity and a large percentage of off-shore drilling and pumping platforms.   Colombian rebels have renewed their war on that nation’s oil industry with a wave of pipeline attacks that sent crude spilling into rivers and clouds of black smoke billowing into the sky. The National Liberation Army is reactiv

Highlights The USDA reported the crush numbers for July: Soybean crush in July was 193 million bushels, 8 million bushels more (4.3%) than a year ago.   Corn crush was 527 million bushels, 4% more than a year ago. Corn for ethanol was 474 million bushels, also 4% more than a year ago. Canola crush was 230,516 tons, 10.1% more than a year ago.   Cottonseed once refined was 32.8 million pounds, 27% more than a year.   USDA will issue the next S&D on Thursday, 12 September. Trad

Highlights There was no agreement on Sunday in the Gaza ceasefire talks that took place in Egypt . Neither Hamas nor Israel agreed to...

Highlights ProFarmer Tour field comments Monday:   Average pod counts for soybeans in a 3x3 foot plot in northeast Nebraska (Knox, Cedar, Pierce Counties) on the pftour24 (Pro Farmer tour 2024). Same route as past years through four stops: 2024: 1003 2023: 1295 (1 irrigated) 2022: 1200 (1 irrigated) 2021: 1057   Four stops in northeast Nebraska on pftour24 (Knox, Cedar, Pierce Counties). Corn yield has averaged (in bu/acre) on this exact route through four stops in the last f

Highlights USDA's August S&D report summary: Corn harvested acres down 700,000 to 82.7 million. Corn yield up 2.1 bushels per acre to 183.1. Corn production up 47 million bu to 15.147 billion bushels; corn usage up 70 million bushels. Bean harvested acres up by just over 1 million acres (was the USDA Actual Planted Acres in June wrong?). Where did those acres come from? The USDA reported “prevented plantings” of 2.670 million acres of corn, 775,000 acres of soybeans, and 389,

Highlights Japan's stock market suffered its second largest stock market decline ever on Monday, world markets followed. Not that it was anything Japan did to cause the sell-off.   The world-wide sell-off was triggered by the US economy showing much higher unemployment and many fewer new jobs than expected on Thursday.       The Fed should have been cutting interest rates last month as the US economy was on an inflation-controlled landing pattern and the Fed did overshot the

Highlights Crop Condition as of Sunday evening: Winter wheat is 82% harvested, 2% more than the 5 year average pace. Spring wheat is 1% harvested, 2% behind the 5 year pace.     Today is the first day after the Gann Cycle technical analysis system projected a major low for CBOT commodities based on 60 year and 30 year cycle analysis. Any of you Gann analysts are welcome to share your insight.   Market analyst Angie Stetzer of Consus Ag Consulting, LLC, wrote early yesterday m