Tidbits, Stocks & Estimates, Markets & Rain Days Update 12/2/23

Highlights

The October Census Bureau crush was reported after the close yesterday and it was an all-time record high for any month. The US has never crushed 200 mil bu of beans in one month until October 2023. The soybean crush was 201.4 mil. bu., a bit above the market’s expectation of 201.1 mil bu. and well above the 197 mil. bu. a year ago.

Soybean oil stocks were expected to be 1.540 billion lbs, but soy oil stocks were just 1.082 bil. lbs. Nobody has ever reported an estimate of meal on hand, but it was 291,071 tons, way down from the 352,206 tons a year ago.  

So, we had a bigger than expected soybean crush and, yet, ~30% less soy oil on hand than expected, 34% less oil than a year ago, and ~18% less meal on hand than a year ago.   

The canola crush was 208,701 tons compared to 208,459 a year ago. Cottonseed oil production was 12% less than a year ago at 35 mil. lbs.  

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