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Tidbits, Soymeal Puts, Markets & Rain Days Update 1/17/23

Highlights


Brazilian bean market analyst, Eduardo Vanin, reports the soybean harvest in Mato Grosso (MT) is being delayed by excessive rain. Take a look at our rain days chart below to see why; the first three locations are where 85% of Brazil’s beans are grown. A form manager with 270,000 acres in MT reported harvest is only 7% complete whereas normally they would be 30% done. He said it is too early to talk about yield losses and he still expects 3 to 5 bushels more than a year ago. This farm has sold 35% of its expected production whereas normally they would be 60%.

The percentage of Brazil’s bean crop sold is running 15 to 20% less than normal because soybean prices rallied sharply into June the past two years. That means there are more beans than normal to be sold in the coming months and that is one of the many reasons why spot month beans are $1.45 higher than a year ago this week.

China reported this morning their economy expanded by 2.9% in the fourth quarter, beating expectations of 1.8%, but way below the 5.5% growth needed to sustain a reasonable rate of employment. Growth for all of 2022 was 3.0%. The Chinese economy is very important for projecting demand for US corn and soybeans.

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