BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Soybean meal  prices in China and Brazil have been very strong this week. AgrInvest Commodities export trader Eduardo Vanin reports China’s soybean meal inventory is at a seven-year low. The rally was ignited by the report that first quarter feed production in China hit a new record high for the first three months of 2025 which was 7.6 million mts larger than 2024 and 5.4 million larger than 2023 which was the previous record.  Brazil's soybean exports are projected t

Tidbits President Trump and President Putin are scheduled to have a phone conversation this morning regarding the negotiations of a ceasefire and possibly the end to the Ukraine/Russia  war. The discussion will be centered on the allocation of assets, primarily of land and power plants that must be settled before a lasting peace can be maintained. Mark Carney was sworn in as the first new Canadian prime minister  in nine years on Friday. He visited the UK and France as his fi

Agriculture futures markets are closed Monday, President’s Day. Highlights Was yesterday’s soybean action  the signal that the market has started to believe the monster soybean crop in Brazil will get harvested? Or was it the tariff threats, the possibility the war in Eastern Europe will soon come to an end, or the sharply lower crude oil reducing the value of bean oil, or something else? In any case, March beans traded lower than any day since 17 January. During the course o

Tidbits, S&D, Soybeans While the current marketing year S&D information presented in yesterday’s monthly report was a non-event, the brain-trust at USDA is really digging deep into the records to explain why they are finding fewer soybeans in the world than their numbers have been showing for the past two years.   The USDA significantly reduced the world carryover for the 2021-22 crop marketing year. After copying the numbers from the USDA website, we thought we had made a mi

Tidbits The USDA will release its monthly US and world S&D today at 10 AM Mountain Time. CONAB, Brazil’s USDA, will also release its latest production estimates this morning several hours before USDA as will StatsCanada issue its grain inventory reports.   Yesterday, March cocoa was up $190 and July was up $130 per mt. Soybeans Crush and Exports Commentary In February 1972, Nixon visited Communist China and sold them massive amounts of wheat, and he did the same in Moscow thr

Highlights OPEC agreed to reduce oil production at its meeting in Vienna yesterday. The crude market rallied sharply immediately after that announcement, but oil prices began to decline and then fell out-of-bed as it became clear that OPEC+ members had agreed to additional voluntary cuts  beginning in January. More obscure yet, the size of those cuts would be announced by each member instead of by the group.   The announced additional cuts in barrels per day were: Algeria 51,

Highlights Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results Thursday: Drought Monitor: % change of crop area in drought Corn +1, Cotton +8, Sorghum +1, Soybean 0, Spring Wheat 0, Winter Wheat +1

The markets usually do not move very much the 24 hours before a USDA monthly S&D as traders have had weeks to determine the positions they want to hold through the report and those on the sidelines stay on the sidelines until after the report. Highlights Poland sent 2,000 troops to the Belarusian border this week. Terrible floods this week in Norway, Slovenia, Alaska, and Northeast China (corn country). Typhoon Kanu’s route changed. It will pass through China’s regions of

The Story of Two Clients Chris and Doug were email subscription clients in May 2022. Both farm in Iowa and both became full service clients of Lance’s in early August of 2022. Chris is not going to renew his subscription. He is very upset with Wright on the Market because markets have gone down and all we do is keep saying markets will go higher. Doug renewed his subscription at once upon receiving the invoice this month. What is the difference? Same emails. Same full serv

Highlights Russian forces continue to hit port infrastructure and damaged a cargo terminal in Odessa. Over the last 10 days, 26 port facilities have been hit in Ukraine. It came to our attention yesterday midday that troubled PacWest Bank was going to be absorbed by the Banc of California. The deal was done two days before it became common knowledge. Here is the press release from the 25th which we did not see nor did anyone we know talk or write about it: "The Banc of Calif

Highlights Ukraine and Russia attacks on each other early Wednesday were not as aggressive as the previous two days which allowed some barges on the Danube to be loaded with Ukrainian grain. Two days ago, the railroads to the Danube River loading terminals were destroyed. If so, there will not be many barges loaded any time soon. Three weeks into the Russian wheat harvest, Black Sea grain guru Andrey Sizov reports only 14% of the wheat areas had been harvested as persistent

Highlights A daily “key reversal” higher is created when a price makes a new low for the move and then closes higher than the previous day’s high. It is a very bullish technical indicator. If the day’s opening trade price is higher than the previous day’s settlement before making the new low that day, it is even more bullish. A weekly “key reversal” higher is created when a price makes a new low for the move and then closes higher than the previous week’s high. If the week’s

Highlights If the front three contract months of any commodity futures settles limit up or limit down, the next day’s daily trading limit is expanded. Yesterday, soybean oil was limit-down in more than three months. That means the bean complex will have expanded limits today: Soybeans: $1.60 a bushel Bean meal: $45 a ton Bean oil: 60¢ a pound Yesterday, the EPA issued its Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) mandate for 2023 through 2025 compliance years. The ethanol blending targe

Highlights Kevin Duling, market advisor and futures broker in Maupin, Oregon (kdinvestors@gmail.com and phone 541 980 4554) said: "The...

Highlights The USDA announced yesterday morning the cancellation of 272,000 mts of old crop corn to China. That news and better than expected planting progress, four days without a lower settlement, and a good weather forecast is why corn and beans were so weak yesterday. Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN will meet in Istanbul today and tomorrow to discuss the grain corridor deal. CPI (measures inflation at the retail level) will be released this morning at 7:30 Central.

Highlights A giant ash cloud from a volcano in Eastern Russia has caused massive disruptions in air traffic into Alaska and blanketed a Peninsula in Russia. Ash from the Shiveluch volcano on Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula spewed as high as 20 kilometers (12.5 miles) and laid an 8-inch layer of dust on the land down wind. Dozens of flights in and out of Alaska have been cancelled. The eruption began Tuesday, the first one since Shiveluch erupted in 2007. Given the jet stream of

Highlights After trashing the markets yesterday afternoon when she said there would be no government guarantee on 100% of bank deposits, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, had a different story Thursday when it came to the ongoing debate over insuring bank deposits beyond the $250,000 limit. In prepared remarks to a House committee, Yellen repeated that the Biden administration’s actions tied to recent banking meltdowns were “taken to ensure that Americans’ deposits are saf

Highlights Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify today and tomorrow before a congressional committee. The market expects him to affirm the Fed Fund rate will peak 5½ to 6% by September to November. The monthly USDA S&D will be issued tomorrow at 11 AM Central Time. The expectations are:

Highlights China's February manufacturing PMI was expected to be 50.5, but it came in at 52.6 this morning, the highest since April 2012... eleven years, Folks! The non-manufacturing PMI was highest since March 2021. An expanding Chinese economy means more crude oil, soybeans, corn, pork and beef. Many of you are looking for a respected market advisor who will tell you to sell your corn, wheat, and beans. We are not going to do it, so Bill Crowder is your man. Bill is a cot

Highlights Mexico has officially scrapped the ban on GMO corn imports for animal feed and industrial use that was due to start in January. Mexico still plans to prohibit glyphosate and GMO corn for human consumption. That human consumption corn has never been a sizable percent of their corn imports. President Biden Administration said yesterday morning another 26 million barrels will be released from Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as Russia cuts production. That and the C