Russia President Putin late yesterday morning said, "We cannot allow everything to be pulled (exported) abroad. We definitely need reserves. We do not know how the crops will yield in 2023. Look what's happening: the weather is warm in Europe. Today I spoke with the President Serdar Berdimuhamedov of Turkmenistan; the temperature was minus 25 (usual weather is much warmer). In Turkmenistan! In Uzbekistan; minus 23! What will happen here? We can't tell for sure! Therefore, we absolutely need stable reserves, absolutely! We must save it."
That short speech took March CBOT wheat from 15 lower to 12 higher and settled 8 higher.
Russia authorities have said all along they harvested about 18% more wheat in 2022 than ever before. Possible, but as farmers know, it is very difficult to grow a crop that yields 18% better than any other year of your farming life. That much production gain in one year is not reasonable and, to a great extent, defies common sense. The Russian government raised their export tax on wheat by $30+ a mt on January first.