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Tidbits & Rain Days, Russia-Ukraine, Lower SA Production, Export Sales 02/18/2022

There most definitely was artillery fire exchanged in dozens of areas between pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian for forces. Of course, both sides blame the other for breaking the truce.

Three are three groups of people, soldiers involved in this mess. Obviously pro Ukraine forces and people, pro-Russian forces and people and then the “Rebels”.

The Rebels are the people living in and the soldiers occupying the two disputed oblasts (oblast is a province or territory). There are two oblasts, Luhansk and Donetsk, that, prior to 2014, were part of Ukraine. They really are 80% Russian people and, like the eastern half and most of the southern area of Ukraine, they speak the Russian language. These two oblasts are rich in coal and iron ore. They have called themselves “autonomous” states since 2014. Of course, both Russia and Ukraine want these oblasts to be part of their country. There are mercenaries paid by both side doing the dirty work. The folks living in and near these areas are less concerned about war than the rest of the world. They see this situation little more than a two roosters occasionally attacking each other just to save face.

I really think the people who want a shooting war more than anyone are the people handling Joe Biden. There is nothing better than a good ol’ shooting war with photos of blood and guts to take everyone’s mind off problems at home. That is especially true now that the world knows the campaigns of Hillary and Joe were paying a network of spies to infiltrate and undermine the Trump organization.

The USDA reported yesterday morning sales of 120,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown.

The Andersons, Inc. reported it had a record high fourth-quarter profit and a full-year earnings rebound. Net income for 2021 was $103.99 million, equal to $2.99 per share on the common stock, up sharply from 17¢ per share, in 2020. Revenue was up 56% to $12.61 billion.

India expects to produce a record 316.06 million mts of grain this year. Total tonnage is expected to be about 311 million mts with 111.3 million mt of wheat, up 1.8 million from last year. That means India will have 5 to 10 million mt of wheat to export this year. The rice harvest is expected to be 128 million mt, up 3.6 million from last year. Oilseed production is expected at 37.1 million mts, up 1.8 million from 2021. Pulses is estimated to reach 13.2 million mt. up 1.3 million fro 2021. La Niña is kind to famers in India.

Landus will purchase Heartland Coop’s Rippey and Panora grain and agronomy assets and Heartland will purchase Landus’ Woodward and Earlham grain, agronomy and feed assets. All grain contracts will be honored by the incoming company. Pre-pay agronomy business will not be disrupted and will continue to be serviced by the cooperative with which the contract was originally written. Both will work to ensure seamless feed service out of the Earlham feed mill as the business transitions to Heartland. Farmer equity in either cooperative is not impacted by this change in asset ownership.

At least 94 people have died in Brazil after mudslides and flooding triggered by torrential rains on Tuesday. The city of Petropolis, north of Rio de Janeiro, saw more than 10 inches of rain in only three hours. The death toll is expected to rise in an area that saw more than 900 deaths from torrential rainfall in 2011. The country has been battered by floods and landslides this year, including an incident in São Paulo in January that killed at least 24 people.

Sinop area, in Northern Mato Grosso, Brazil, received 4.8 inches (123 mm) during the 24 hours ending at noon yesterday. Total rainfall in February is at 18.4 inches (468 mm), 39% above the normal for the month. AgRural reports 75% of the soybean crop was harvested in Northern Mato Grosso by Feb 10th.

Belaruskali is a Belarusian potash company that declared force majeure on potash shipments following Ukraine’s stoppage of rail traffic two days ago. Yesterday, Belaruskali announced they are making arrangements to ship their potash by rail to ports on the Baltic Sea.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE) cut their Argentine corn production estimate by 6 million mt 51 million; USDA is at 54 million. BAGE reduced the Argentine bean crop by 2 million mt to 42; USDA is 45 million.

The International Grains Council (IGC) lowered their 2021/22 world corn production estimate by 4 million mt 1,203 million and carryover was reduced by 6 million mt to 281 million. The USDA carryover is at 302 million mt. That is a difference of 837 million bushels!

The IGC left their world wheat production estimate unchanged at 781 million mt, but raised the world carryover by 2 million mt to 278 million; USDA is also at 278 million mt.

Below is the Weekly Export Sales Tracker. Note there were a lot, and I mean a lot of old and new soybeans sold last week.


 

Market Data


This morning: Crude oil is at $91.01, down 0.75 The dollar index is at 95.76, down 0.04 March palm oil is at 6053 MYR, up 86. The contract high was made today at 6,075 MYR. Palm oil owns 32% and soybean oil owns 28% world market share. March cotton is at $122.82, up 0.89. The contract high was made February, 1st at $129.37 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres. March natural gas is at $4.475, down 0.011. The contract high was $6.132 at October, 6th, 2021. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer. March ULSD is at $2.7656 per gallon, down 0.0206. The contract high was made February, 14th at $2.9666.


 

Rain Days Update


Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso, in the heart of Brazil's most productive soybean area, received 0.2 inches of rain yesterday; 0 inches a year ago and 0 inches two years ago (one inch = 24.5 mm). Yesterday's high temperature was 87°F. Day time highs the next ten days will range from 82 to 90°F (100°F = 38°C). Yesterday, in the dry areas of South America: Santa Maria high temperature 100°F with 0 inches rain. Cordoba high temperature 88°F with 0 inches rain. Salto high temperature 89°F with 0.1 inches rain. Total rainfall and temperatures expected in the next ten days: Santa Maria 1.48 inches, 86 to 97°F. Cordoba 1.00 inches, 77 to 88°F. Salto 1.22 inches, 79 to 89°F. The Western Corn Belt has 2 more rain days in the 10 day forecast than yesterday and the Eastern Corn Belt has 1 less rain days than yesterday.



Explanation of Rain Days


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