A report ripped through the futures market late in the trading day on Friday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine had begun. However, later in the afternoon, it appeared that a White House statement “an invasion could begin any day now” was misquoted. Wheat jumped to 30+ cents higher before settling up about 23 cents in Chicago and KC, up 20 cents in Minneapolis.
Putin and Biden have a phone call scheduled for 11 AM Eastern Time today. Biden will tell Putin for 23rd time that if Russia invades Ukraine, severe economic sanctions will befall Russia. Russian exports more N, P, and K than any other country and provides Western Europe with more than half of its natural gas.
USDA projects Ukraine will export 33 million mt of corn this year. Shipping records indicate about 20 million mt of this year’s corn has already been shipped from Ukraine. If war shuts down Ukrainian ports, 13 million mt of corn would need to be picked-up by the rest of the exporting nations. With Brazil and Argentina out of the corn export business until new crop harvest, that means the 13 million mt would have to come from the US or a barley and feed wheat substitute from the EU.