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Negotiations & Economic Wars, Market Highs, Food Shortage, Market & Rain Days Update 03/12/2022

Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of:

128,900 mts of old crop corn to unknown

264,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China


Old crop corn and soybean futures have closed higher 8 of the first 10 weeks of 2022


Basis at the Gulf were steady Friday for corn, wheat and beans. Two of the five corn export terminals in Portland, Oregon firmed their basis by 5 cents, while the other three were study.

 

There are some reports from both sides that Russia and Ukraine are “making progress” with negotiations, but the talks must be way behind the scenes as no one seems to who or where talks are taking place. Putin himself said yesterday, Discussions with Ukraine have taken a positive turn.

 

Bunge said it has suspended any new export business from Russia, but its oilseed crush plant in Russia is still operating and serving the domestic market.


In recent years, Bunge has scaled back its Russian grain trading activities. Bunge sold its Rostov grain export terminal, but still has about $121 million in total assets in Russia.

 

A series of rather serious protests have roiled southern Iraq after a shortage of food imports from Ukraine led to significant price increases. The risk or more food shortages is growing in Middle East, North Africa and western Europe.


Fertilizer prices in England touched record highs yesterday with urea & ammonia now above $1,100 mt.


France’s soft red winter wheat crop is rated 92% good or excellent.

 

While the shooting war is in Ukraine, make no mistake about it, the world is at war using economic weapons.


 

Market Data


Yesterday:

Crude oil settled at $109.90, up $3.07

The dollar index settled at 99.13, up 0.62

July palm oil settled at 5,950 MYR, down 218. The contract high was made March, 9th at 6,531 MYR. Palm oil owns 36% and soybean oil owns 28% world market share.

December cotton settled at $104.24, up 2.80 per cwt. The contract high was made February, 10th at $106.36 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres.

July natural gas settled at $4.878, up 0.099. The contract high was made March, 7th at $5.270. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer.

July ULSD settled at $3.1258 per gallon, up 0.0854. The contract high was made March, 9th at $3.7675. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.


 

Rain Days Update


Yesterday, in the dry areas of South America: Santa Maria high temperature 68°F with 0 inches rain. Cordoba high temperature 74°F with 0 inches rain. Salto high temperature 81°F with 0 inches rain. Total rainfall and temperatures expected in the next ten days: Santa Maria 0.75 inches, 73 to 90°F. Cordoba 0.31 inches, 70 to 90°F. Salto 0.12 inches, 72 to 88°F.

The Western Corn Belt has 1 more rain days in the 10 day forecast than yesterday and the Eastern Corn Belt has the same number of rain days than yesterday.


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