BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Dismissals:  Friday evening President Trump fired more than 4,200 Federal employees from the Treasury Department, U.S. Health Agency, Internal Revenue Service, and the Departments of Education, Commerce, and Homeland Security's cybersecurity division. Roughly 300,000 civil service workers have already been set to leave their jobs this year due to a downsizing campaign initiated earlier this year.   From the AgrInvest Commodities Team in Brazil: "The São Paulo market i

Tidbits Ag support:  Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke L. Rollins announced last week an aggressive three-point plan that will support American agricultural producers and exporters. “President Trump is putting American agriculture first by negotiating fair, reciprocal deals that benefit U.S. producers, farmers, and ranchers,”  said Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke J. Lindberg. “Secretary Rollins is focused on expanding market access, enforcing tr

Tidbits Conservation Reserve Program:  On Wednesday, the USDA announced acceptance of 1.78 million acres into the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). About 25.8 million acres are currently enrolled in CRP, which is in its 40th year. FSA received offers on more than 2.6 million acres. The program’s total acreage is capped at 27 million acres for fiscal year 2025. About 955,795 acres are expiring on September 30 this year. Producers submitted re-enrollment offers for just over

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 185,000 mts of new crop soybean meal to the Philippines. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 620,000 barrels last week after a 970,000 barrel decline the previous week. The market expected a 3.4 million-barrel drawdown. S&P Global PMI  reports: Russia composite (includes manufacturing and services) PMI: 49.1 vs 47.5 expected Russia services PMI: 50.0 vs 48.3 expected Great Britain composite PMI: 53.5 vs 53.0

Tidbits Soybean crush:  The USDA July soybean crush report will be issued tomorrow. It is expected to be up 7.2% from a year ago at 207.2 million bushels, the largest July crush on record and 5th largest of any month.   India-Pakistan:  More than a million people in Pakistan have been displaced in the Punjab province as the worst flooding there in four decades caused havoc in hundreds of villages and submerged vital grains crops. Torrential monsoon rain and neighboring India'

Tidbits A Chinese commerce  minister is scheduled to visit the U.S. and talk to trade deputies. While this is not part of the ongoing negotiations, it is seen as a goodwill gesture. The human case of screwworm  reported this week by U.S. health officials is the country's only one so far this year and poses no risk to the farm sector, a U.S. Department of Agriculture official said on Tuesday. Crude oil was lower yesterday, despite the Ukraine conflict and its impact on Russian

Tidbits Basis: Delphos, Ohio Bunge soybean crush plant weakened their fall delivery basis by 5¢ to -35X (35¢ under November futures) on Monday or Tuesday. Producers Ag’s Canton, Kansas facility weakened their fall delivery corn basis by 5¢ to -35Z (35¢ under December) yesterday as did Cargill at its corn syrup plant in Dayton, Ohio to -25Z.   If you have not made a decision about setting fall delivery basis, make it today. That does not mean you should blindly set the basis o

Tidbits The talk of poor pollination for corn  is getting some legs to stand on. It is three weeks too early to put a number on the potential yield impact because most of the corn has not pollinated yet, but pollination problems on this corn early corn are definitely worse than normal. Other problems with Tarpspot and fungicide being washed away in many areas. The fast growing corn plants have not only restricted the release of pollen, but agronomists are beginning to find ve

Highlights From The Moscow Times: European lawmakers on Thursday approved new  tariffs on Russian fertilizer  imports, a move aimed at cutting financial support for Moscow’s war effort, but one that has sparked concerns among EU farmers over rising costs.   More than a quarter of the EU’s nitrogen-based fertilizer imports currently come from Russia, with additional volumes entering from Belarus, a close ally of Moscow. The EU Commission wants to end that dependence.   The tar

Tidbits China ’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will meet with Brazilian authorities in Brazil  this week to discuss food and nutritional security, sustainable agricultural production and climate change, electronic certification of agricultural products and agricultural trade, and logistics infrastructure, according to Brazil’s Minister of Agriculture and Livestock, Carlos Fávaro.   Quotes of Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins :   11 April: "Just finished a p

Highlights India is, by far, the largest world buyer of nitrogen fertilizer and they prefer urea. This past week India finally issued their first urea tender of 2025. It was expected to be issued from late January to the end of February. The nitrogen market-makers have been nervous and nitrogen retailers have been stressed the past few months waiting to see how much urea India would seek to buy and what price they would be willing to pay for it. That information is needed to

Highlights AgrInvest Commodities cash grain trader for exports, Eduardo Vanin , yesterday morning: "The soybean basis rally continues. For May, at +75sk (75¢ over May soybean futures)  new highs, +50¢ per bushel from last week. This is one of the most aggressive weekly rallies I have ever seen. The April/May cash price is nearly equal to the June/July (very little carry) ."   Earlier this week, a conveyor belt system collapsed  at the TGPM grain loading port terminal at the B

Highlights March CBOT options expire today which usually means lower prices. The expected hot weather in Argentina this weekend sent soybeans higher yesterday, but not so much the corn. We think the faint rumors from the New York Times of a Trump trade deal with China boosted soybeans more than weather. Due to high prices, India cancelled the purchase of 70,000 mts of Malaysian palm oil which had been scheduled for delivery March through June. Sunflower oil futures rose above

Tidbits The grain markets will close at 12:05 PM CT this week Tuesday, December 24th. The markets will be closed all day on Wednesday, December 25th. They will open back up on Thursday at 8:30 AM CT, December 26th. The U.S. government pushed through a funding bill at the last minute, President Biden signed it on Saturday, putting off the next fight over the debt ceiling until March, when it will become a problem for President-elect Trump.   The bill included a one-year extens

Highlights The market action this week will be dominated by the looming:  Dock workers’ strike on the US East and Gulf Coasts where 5 of the 10 busiest ports in North America are located. US government shutdown 1 Oct due to a lack of funding being approved by Congress and the President.   The expectation of either happening will be negative for grains, but much worse for the stock markets. Those of you with a stock portfolio (which includes a 401K or IRA) should seriously con

Market Comment After 4 to 6 days of gains, corn, wheat, and beans all closed lower Friday, which is a down day if the markets had been decided higher in the days before Friday. Traders know a lot of things can change over a weekend.   If you are looking for a place or time to get long futures or call options, this is the week to probably do that. The USDA S&D on Thursday at 11 Am Central time usually causes the market to trade lower in the days before the report. The coming S

Highlights Late Saturday afternoon, three of Libya’s oilfields received instructions to resume production, engineers at the fields told Reuters. A standoff between rival political factions shut most of the country's oil fields last week. The resumption order was made by the fields' operator, the Arabian Gulf Oil Company, which did not provide any reasons, according to the engineers. A struggle to control the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) sparked a blockade of oil production and

Tidbits The 3-day ProFarmer tour starts on Tuesday and will cover OH, IN, IL, IA, SD, NE and MN. State yield estimates will be issued each day. ProFarmer will release its own US national yield estimates on Friday. Out of the past 10 years, ProFarmer's corn yield estimate has been below USDA's final yield by an average of 1.5% and soybean estimates averaged 2.6% below USDA’s final yield. In 2023, Pro Farmer's corn yield estimate was 168.1 bpa vs. USDA's final 177.3 (5.0% under

Highlights On Wednesday, a giddy euphoria about the US economy prevailed on the “certain” prospects for lower interest rates in September. Thursday morning, the U.S. jobs data showed 114,000 jobs were added in July; the market expected 176,000. Worse yet, the June new jobs number was revised lower from 206,000 to 179,000 and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.3%, up 0.2%. That was the largest one month increase in many years. Suddenly, the giddy euphoria turned to gloom and do

Highlights Fears that China’s economy will falter and substantially reduce demand for imports of everything has been a consistent bearish theme since 2020 and the intensity increased in 2024. The real estate developers’ crushing debt has been milked for all its worth by everyone who wants grain prices to go down.   One of the two biggest developers, Evergrande, filed bankruptcy in 2023 in the USA and a Hong Kong court ordered Evergrande assets to be liquidated 6 months ago. T