Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Friday's key reversal on the soybeans (new contract high followed by a close lower than the previous day's low) was negated by yesterday's higher close. As a general rule, a lack of follow through on the next trading day is needed to confirm a technical trend change. Fuel & Fertilizer: Diesel prices are climbing fast, and farmers are feeling it in real time. U.S. diesel prices have surged 60% since the start of the war in Iran. With another 30¢ jump in just a week, th

Tidbits Iran & China: On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced new sanctions to strangle Iran economically and target countries and businesses doing business with Iran. Bessent put countries on notice that they will have to work with the United States or face losing access to the global dollar-based financial system. Late Wednesday, a Treasury spokesperson said China would be exempt, which means the soybean market dodged a bullet. High temperatures and heavy rain have

Market Comment There was no new news yesterday that justified such strong action. It felt like the buying was more of a ground-swell of bullish news that had not been fully priced into these markets for the past two years. Eduardo Vanin is a soybean export trader with AgrInvest Commodities said: “Seems market realized Brazil will not have enough beans to cover China and Brazil's local industry. Soybean meal up ~2.5% today. Market in China turned to (government) auctions, Arge

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA announced yesterday morning the sale of 136,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Biofuel: Vietnam has completed its rollout across all urban areas of a mandatory E10 blending requirement in its most popular gasoline grade, which is expected to eventually generate annual ethanol demand of 240 million gallons. The policy ensures 100% of gasoline grades sold in Vietnam will contain ethanol, beginning in June 2026. The US Grains & BioProducts Counc

Tidbits U.S. Crops: The USDA’s 180.7 corn yield reported on 12 August was based upon conditions as of the first of August. Ohio and Indiana were both projected to have record corn yields. Since those numbers were gathered, all 92 counties in Indiana have been declared a disaster due to excessive rain, as have 2 in Ohio, which will probably see several more added in the coming days. The historic flooding, record river crests, downed corn, some hail, and standing water from cen

Tidbits Photos From East Central South Dakota: 16X30 29,000 population on the field where these ears came from. Fertilizer: Mosaic Company is an American chemical company based in Tampa, Florida, which mines phosphate, potash, and collects urea through various international distribution networks and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It is the largest USA producer of potash and phosphate fertilizers. Drew Crawford is an American financial whiz living in Brazil who established a busi

S&D The USDA will issue its August S&D on Wednesday. This is the first 2026 crop production report in which yields will not be accounting estimates based upon unknown assumptions. While the yield numbers will not be based on field survey results, the yield numbers will be based on survey reports from approximately 15,000 farmers across the country of their individual crop conditions, expectations, and projected yields based on what they see in their fields at the beginning of

Tidbits The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast Sunday evening predicted above normal rainfall and above normal temperatures for the next two weeks in the Corn Belt. This is August, the month that makes or breaks soybean yields. The USDA predicted an average yield of 53 bushels on its July S&D, the same as a year ago, but 2.25 bushels more than 2024 and 2.4 bushels more than 2023. Matt Makens is an atmospheric scientist. He says the current Super El Niño is unlike any

Tidbits Markets: November soybean futures lost nearly 30¢ and corn lost 9¢ Wednesday as some weather forecasts indicated rain relief for the Western Corn Belt with widespread rains into the early part of next week, with heaviest amounts seen for Iowa, Southern Minnesota and Northern Illinois. Those areas could see 1.25 inches to over 2 inches by Tuesday, based on a National Weather Service five-day outlook. Frankly, we cannot find a NWS five-day outlook with that prediction.

Tidbits Weather: Contrary to most private forecasts, the National Weather Service and 247AG predicted Saturday evening that extreme heat will return next weekend to the Central and Western Corn Belt with normal rainfall amounts. Ukraine: There are rumors that corn and wheat exporters in Ukraine will declare force majeure in Ukraine due to war damage to their grain handling equipment. “Force majeure” is a term used in contracts allowing either party to legally break th

Tidbits China evacuated more than 1.9 million people as Typhoon Bavi churned toward the major eastern city of Wenzhou. Farmers raced this past week to harvest crops. At the greatest risk were rice, corn, vegetables, and fruits. The category 1 typhoon made landfall with 90 mph (144 kmph) around 11:20 pm Saturday local time. Rice is the world’s number one competitor for wheat. In Asia, wheat and rice demand is determined by price for the average consumer. Reuters reports Ch

Tidbits May Crushings data released yesterday by the USDA: Total corn consumed for alcohol and other uses was 524 million bushels, up 9% from April and up 5% from May 2025, 92% of it was for alcohol and 8% for other purposes. Soybeans crushed for crude oil was 6.39 million tons (213 million bushels), down 2.3% from April but up 4.4% from a year ago. Canola seeds crushed for crude oil was 164,947 tons in May 2026, 18% less from April but up 56% from May 2025. Cottonseed once r

Tidbits The U.S. and Iran released the text of an interim agreement their presidents have signed to end their war on Wednesday, with the U.S. President threatening to resume attacks and kill Iranian officials if they failed to honour their ​commitments. Iran's leaders did not address the new threats. The memorandum of understanding stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, with Iran agreeing to allow “safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only,

Tidbits Iran: Reuters News Service reported yesterday afternoon: U.S. President Donald Trump and mediator Pakistan said on Saturday an initial deal to end the war in the Middle East would be signed on Sunday, although Iran denied the signing would take place so soon. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the two sides had agreed on a framework for a peace deal and that Islamabad was preparing for an electronic signing on Sunday, ‌to be followed by technical-level talks

Tidbits June S&D: At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will issue its June S&D. It most likely will have very little impact on the markets. It is too early for USDA to change yields or acres for corn and beans. Wheat production could be interesting, but wheat harvest is just getting a good start. The demand side could see an increase in corn exports, a decrease in soybean exports with an increase in soybean crush. Will USDA reduce or increase the size of Brazil’s safrinha co

Tidbits December corn closed below its key technical support level of $4.80¼ yesterday. We discussed this technical situation on Tuesday when we stated December corn was no longer in an uptrend but was in a sideways trading range until it either traded above $5.06½ or below $4.80¼. Yesterday’s settlement was $4.77½. December corn is now in a down trend using the technical analysis system of higher highs and higher lows versus lower highs and lower lows. Barchart.com’s 13 tech

Tidbits The CBOT grains will not trade again until Monday evening after the markets close today. The energy, equities, and interest rate futures will open normal times on Sunday. Energy futures will quit trading at 1:30 PM Monday and interest rate and equity futures will halt trading at noon Central Time Monday. China’s peak U.S. agriculture import year of $38 billion was 2022. They bought just $8 billion worth of agriculture products in 2025. Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commo

Tidbits Given corn, wheat, and beans all opened 14 to 20+ higher last evening, last week's heavy selling was not justified. Brazil: From AgrInvest Commodities on Saturday: "In Brazil, corn remains pressured by comfortable physical supply and low liquidity, while fertilizers are experiencing greater downward pressure on nitrogen fertilizers. Soybean premiums (basis) showed firmness despite the sharp drop on the CBOT, in a market that remains cautious and stagnant." China:

Tidbits After Iran rejected the U.S. proposal to end the war, on Sunday, President Trump rejected Iran's counter response to the U.S. proposal. Crude oil opened $2.77 higher at $98.19 last evening and then traded as high as $98.85 in the first hour of trading and higher from there. Iranian state media said the response focused on ending the war on all fronts and on the safety of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz without indicating how or when the waterway might reopen

Tidbits Iran’s military said United States forces targeted an Iranian oil tanker in coastal waters and a second vessel near the United Arab Emirates’ Fujairah port, while U.S. air strikes hit civilian areas in southern Iran. The U.S. military’s Central Command said its naval forces came under Iranian missile, drone and fast-boat attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump described the attacks on Iranian targets as a “love tap”, telling U.S. broadcast media that “