Highlights
AgrInvest Commodities cash grain trader for exports, Eduardo Vanin, yesterday morning:
"The soybean basis rally continues. For May, at +75sk (75¢ over May soybean futures) new highs, +50¢ per bushel from last week. This is one of the most aggressive weekly rallies I have ever seen. The April/May cash price is nearly equal to the June/July (very little carry)."
Earlier this week, a conveyor belt system collapsed at the TGPM grain loading port terminal at the Barcarena Port in northeast Brazil. It is not a major port, but during the harvest of 170 million mts of soybeans, losing the ability to load two 55,000 mts vessels a week is very inconvenient, to say the least. Some say the TGPM terminal will not be repaired until June, if they are lucky.
China has announced tariffs on U.S. agricultural products as high as 15%, effective on March 10th. Agriculture products included chicken, pork, soy, and beef. China has never removed the tariff on U.S. soybeans applied during the first Trump Administration, but China stopped enforcing the tariff after signing the two year trade deal on 15 January 2020. Will these new tariffs be enforced? Note that U.S. sales and shipments of old crop soybeans to China after the Brazilian harvest begins is usually zero.