Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA announced yesterday the sales of old crop soybeans: 272,000 mts to China and 206,500 mts to unknown. Chinese purchases of U.S. beans have likely reached 13 million mts with Chinese leader Xi visiting Washington 2 weeks away. The market expects them to buy 25 million during the marketing year. South America: Brazilian September exports of soybean are expected to reach 7.74 million mts, up 11% from a year ago. Their corn exports are expected at onl

Tidbits Presidents Putin and Trump had an hour long telephone conversation yesterday. It was strictly confidential, but was described as positive. Canada: The U.S. banned a broad swath of Canadian alcoholic beverages, motorcycles and dairy products from import on Tuesday, sharply escalating ​an already acrimonious trade spat. The import bans, which go into effect on September 29 and were published on the White House's website, came after Canada's own retaliatory tariffs on U.

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA reported sales of 202,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. U.S. Crops: A farmer survey conducted by agricultural commodity brokerage and analysis firm Allendale forecast the U.S. 2026 corn crop at 15.833 billion bushels, with an average yield of 178.7 bushels per acre, which is below the USDA's outlook of 16.013 billion bushels and 180.7 yield. Their 2026 soybean crop forecast is at 4.515 billion bushels, with an average yield of 52.

Tidbits Corn was not nearly as strong yesterday as soybeans and wheat were for the first time in many weeks. Soybeans and wheat made new highs by substantial margins. September and December corn both made new highs, but not by much. It is simply the first sign of a market that may be nearing a top or it simply needs some new bullish news to propel the price higher. China buying U.S. corn or confirmation that the corn yield will be near the Pro Farmer number (173.2) rather tha

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA reported yesterday sales of 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown. Iran & China: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced “Operation Economic Outcast” yesterday, saying “If (countries) facilitate transactions and are part of the ecosystem that turns Iranian oil into money, into repression, they will be targeted.” This includes any country that participates in Iran’s aviation, shipping, and technology sectors. Bessent said that China will n

Tidbits Pro Farmer Crop Tour and USDA corn yield comparison: The Pro Farmer corn yield is obviously supportive for corn prices, but until the USDA prints a similar yield, the market’s reaction will be subdued. Given pollination problems which have been confirmed in August, it is reasonable to expect USDA to reduce their corn yield in the coming months. S&D Possible Changes and Comparisons:

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday morning the USDA announced sales of: 205,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown 712,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China 720,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown Market Comment: That is 1.432 million mts of soybeans booked for export and November beans traded lower most of the day yesterday but did manage to settle 3¢ higher. The contract high was made on 24 July and yesterday’s settlement was 17¢ below the contract high. We have had a lot of b

Tidbits Corn and Soybean Facts of Life: The only years that corn and soybean futures decline after the first half of September are the years that yields are uniformly better than expected across the Corn Belt. If you think yields across the Corn Belt are not going to be better than the market expects, do not be pricing corn or soybeans yet. Key Put Option Premiums: $4.80 December Corn Put: 12-3¢ (12 and three-eighths) $12.00 November Soybean Put: 17-3¢ $11.00 November Soybean

Tidbits The U.S. President announced late on Tuesday he was putting a three-day pause on new ​50% tariffs set to go into effect on Canadian goods yesterday, saying the two countries had reached a deal. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 4.4 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels in the week ended August 14, marking a third consecutive weekly increase. Gasoline stocks rose by 0.7 million barrels and the market was looking for a decline, while distillate stockpiles fell by 1.

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA announced yesterday morning the sale of 136,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Biofuel: Vietnam has completed its rollout across all urban areas of a mandatory E10 blending requirement in its most popular gasoline grade, which is expected to eventually generate annual ethanol demand of 240 million gallons. The policy ensures 100% of gasoline grades sold in Vietnam will contain ethanol, beginning in June 2026. The US Grains & BioProducts Counc

Tidbits U.S. Crops: The USDA’s 180.7 corn yield reported on 12 August was based upon conditions as of the first of August. Ohio and Indiana were both projected to have record corn yields. Since those numbers were gathered, all 92 counties in Indiana have been declared a disaster due to excessive rain, as have 2 in Ohio, which will probably see several more added in the coming days. The historic flooding, record river crests, downed corn, some hail, and standing water from cen

Tidbits Crude oil prices jumped 5% yesterday as hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded. Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 105,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. Yes, the 2025 crop, with just 3 weeks left to export it! The USDA is extending the deadline for farmers to apply for Stages 1 and 2 of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) to 30 September 2026. Additionally, USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) is prov

S&D The USDA will issue its August S&D on Wednesday. This is the first 2026 crop production report in which yields will not be accounting estimates based upon unknown assumptions. While the yield numbers will not be based on field survey results, the yield numbers will be based on survey reports from approximately 15,000 farmers across the country of their individual crop conditions, expectations, and projected yields based on what they see in their fields at the beginning of

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sales of 238,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China 29,808 mts of new crop corn and 256,289 mts of 2027 crop corn to Mexico. One has to wonder why Mexico is committing to buy so much 2027 corn this far in advance. What do they know that we do not know? Their expected demand for corn in the 2027-28 marketing year. Russian drones damaged two vessels on Friday per multiple reports, one of them carrying wheat. Andrey S

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of: 340,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China 256,634 mts of new crop soybeans to Mexico 110,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown The International Grains Council (IGC), in its latest Grain Market Report, sees global grains crop dropping by 2.7% (69 million mts) from last year’s record of 2.49 billion mts. Much of the fall is reflected in smaller anticipated corn and wheat crops, but with oats, sorghum and rye

Tidbits Some analysts said the sharply higher crude oil was why CBOT prices were smartly lower yesterday while other analysts said it was the belt of scattered showers from Kansas to Minnesota with more in the forecast for today and tomorrow. We will side with the rain for the lower prices. When it is July and rain is falling on Iowa, corn and beans will be down. Some weakness is caused every month by the fear of the USDA monthly S&D, which will be released tomorrow at 11 AM

Rolling HTA Contracts A client came up short on bushels to fill a July HTA contract for June delivery. The merchandiser suggested the client roll the portion of the undelivered bushels from July to November and deliver the bushels this fall. Our client agreed. He was surprised to learn his new November HTA price was higher than his July HTA. He asked how that could happen? The gain or loss on the roll from July to November has nothing to do with the price of the July HTA, w

Tidbits After the CBOT breakfast break yesterday morning, corn, wheat, and beans jumped sharply higher for no apparent reason. More than an hour later, Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities reported that China was rumored to be asking for quotes on U.S. soybeans for Oct to Mar shipment because Brazil’s FOB quotes were so much higher than they were a year ago for the same shipment period. DTN reports old crop corn basis is perking up in the PNW for July-Sep +130 to +135; June

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday, the USDA reported sales of 120,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown destinations. Yesterday’s corn market action was not nearly as bullish as we hoped after losing 38¢ in 13 days, a “hook reversal” on Monday, the crop ratings after the close Monday afternoon were not as good as the market expected, and another corn flash sale yesterday morning. None-the-less, there were some positive indicators yesterday for the corn market: The lead futures mont

Tidbits U.S. Crops: On this date in 2018, December corn futures made its high at $4.29. Its low was made on 18 September at $3.42. Four of the last six years, December corn made its high for the year before this date. Parts of the Eastern Corn Belt received more than 3 inches (76 mm) in the 36 hours ending yesterday at midnight. University of Illinois ag economists report soybeans have turned profitable for Illinois farmers while corn remains in the red. Dr. Michael Cor