BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday, the USDA reported sales of 120,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown destinations. Yesterday’s corn market action was not nearly as bullish as we hoped after losing 38¢ in 13 days, a “hook reversal” on Monday, the crop ratings after the close Monday afternoon were not as good as the market expected, and another corn flash sale yesterday morning. None-the-less, there were some positive indicators yesterday for the corn market: The lead futures mont

Tidbits U.S. Crops: On this date in 2018, December corn futures made its high at $4.29. Its low was made on 18 September at $3.42. Four of the last six years, December corn made its high for the year before this date. Parts of the Eastern Corn Belt received more than 3 inches (76 mm) in the 36 hours ending yesterday at midnight. University of Illinois ag economists report soybeans have turned profitable for Illinois farmers while corn remains in the red. Dr. Michael Cor

Old crop carryovers were just about as expected for everything except world wheat was 3.8 million mts less than expected and 2.8 million mts less than the lowest estimate. That small old crop wheat carryover and short new crop production made the new crop wheat world carryover just above the lowest estimate and well below expectations. World new crop corn carrover was 9.2 million mts less than expected. Note the world corn carryover has been relatively tight for several y

Tidbits Fuel: The Department of Treasury has scheduled a public hearing for 27 May on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. The proposed rule defines eligibility, emissions rates, and certification requirements. California’s year-end data has just been released. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) consumption reached 119.5 million gallons in 2025. U.S. Economy: Yesterday, the S&P 500 rose nearly 1% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.7% as both indexes made new highs. The Dow J

Tidbits Fertilizer: Dakota Gas has switched from making diesel exhaust fluid to making granular 46% nitrogen urea at their Great Plains Synfuels Plant near Beulah, North Dakota. The plant’s capacity is 1,100 short tons per day. The USA burns enough DEF each year to meet all of Canada’s nitrogen fertilizer needs. Brazil: Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities reported on Monday: “I’m in Goiás this week. Everywhere I’ve been, the corn looks small and stressed. I saw sunflower a

Tidbits The weather forecast is predicting limited rainfall through next week for Western Kansas, Eastern Colorado, and Nebraska with no rain in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The update to the Drought Monitor yesterday morning shows 70% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in drought. That is the largest since 2023 and the largest drought area for this time of the growing season since 2022. Total global grains production is expected to set a record during this marketing season,

Tidbits Planting Feedback: Jeff in Minnesota sent us this information yesterday morning: “Friend of mine around Charleston (far southeast) Missouri called last night. Record heat temps along with dry soils. Planting corn 2.5” deep to get in moisture. And he is a no till guy. He said guys around there planted all their corn in 4 days.” Brazilian agency CONAB estimated yesterday total corn production 1.3 million higher, at 139.6 million mts, but below last year’s 141.2 million.

Tidbits The CO2 Coalition was established in 2015 for the purpose of educating leaders, policy makers, and the public about the important contribution made by carbon dioxide to our lives and the economy. The Coalition seeks to engage in an informed and dispassionate discussion of climate change, humans’ role in the climate system, the limitations of climate models, and the consequences of mandated reductions in CO2 emissions. The CO2 Coalition’s Climate Change’s Real Story

Tidbits U.S. Acres: S&P Global Energy raised its corn plantings forecast to 95.2 million acres from its January projection of 95 million acres. USDA’s 2025 planted acres were 98.8 million. S&P projected U.S. 2026 soybean plantings at 85 million acres, up from its January forecast of 84.5 million and up from the 81.2 million acres seeded in 2025. The firm also projected total U.S. wheat plantings for 2026 at 44.050 million acres, 40,000 acres above its January projection but d

Tidbits The price of crude oil rose by more than $10 in a single day, closing at $91.27. The U.S. will allow Russian crude oil that has been stranded at sea to be sold to India to ease the potential supply shock to the global market. It is estimated there is 150 million barrels of Russian oil in those ships. Treasury Secretary ​Scott Bessent yesterday ‌said the United States could remove sanctions from more ​Russian oil, a ​day after Washington issued a ⁠30-day waiver all

Tidbits Four years ago today the war between Russia and Ukraine began. After being invaded by Hitler’s Germany in June 1941, the Soviet Union defeated Germany in 3 years and 11 months. After Japan destroyed most of the U.S. Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor, the U.S. defeated Imperial Japan in 3 years and 8 months. Wars just are not fought to win any more. That is why the Vietnam War lasted 13 years and Afghanistan was a 20 year war. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announ

February S&D Estimates The USDA will release the S&D report on February 10 at 11 AM Central Time. Market estimates U.S. soybean and wheat carryover to decrease about 1%, corn carryover is anticipated to stay unchanged. Note: "Ending Stocks" aka "Carryover." World carryover is seen a bit higher for corn and beans. Brazilian crops estimates may increase while decreasing for Argentina. Estimates compiled by DTN: Q&A: Put Options and Risk Management From a client in Iowa: "Thanks

Tidbits Beef: President Donald Trump signed an executive order Friday aimed at making beef more affordable for Americans by increasing the allowable imports of lean beef trimmings from Argentina. The executive order, titled Ensuring Affordable Beef for the American Consumer, temporarily increases the import quota quantity of lean beef trimmings under the U.S. tariff-rate quota by 80,000 metric tons, allocating the additional volume entirely to Argentina. U.S. Basis: GraInfor

Tidbits Next Tuesday, February 10, the USDA will release its S&D (WASDE) report. Reuters released its survey of analysts ahead of the report, showing an average 2025/26 carryout estimates: Corn - 2.227 billion bushels (same as in January S&D) Soybean - 347 million bushel (350 mil in January) Wheat - 918 million bushels (926 mil in January) Yesterday’s soybean trade volume reached roughly 930,000 contracts, marking a new all‑time record. U.S. net farm income would fall 0.7% to

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 198,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown. The U.S. Supreme Court did not issue a ruling yesterday on President Trump’s global tariffs. The U.S. unemployment rate edged down to 4.4% in December 2025, from a revised 4.5% in November, which had marked the highest level since October 2021. The reading also came in slightly below market expectations of 4.5%. The economy added 50,000 non-farm payrolls in D

Tidbits Tariffs: The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to announce later this morning their decision on the legality of Trump’s tariffs. The administration faces the possibility of having to refund nearly $150 billion paid in tariffs to importers if the court declares that the sweeping duties Trump has imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are illegal. Venezuela: The U.S. Senate voted yesterday to advance a resolution that would bar President Donald Trump

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 264,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China 226,000 mts of old crop beans to unknown 186,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown Crude oil: OPEC’s latest monthly report maintained a firm demand outlook due to consistent demand in China and India while reiterating that non-OPEC supply growth is set to moderate in 2026. The group also noted that OPEC+ supply management continues to anchor market stability. In its

S&D Highlights Corn: On yesterday’s S&D, corn received the strongest boost as exports increased by 125 million bushels and the carryover was reduced by the same amount to 2,029 million bushels, a 45 day supply, down 4 days from last month and well below market expectations. As is normal for December, there were no production changes on this S&D. World corn carryout was reduced by 86 million bushels, but the days’ use needle was not moved and is still at 79 days compared to 85

Tidbits Carryover, aka carryout, is the amount of old crop grain or oilseed that was not used during the marketing year. The job of the market is to make sure we never run out of food or fiber during every marketing year. When necessary, the market rations all commodities by raising the price so users will use less. USDA reports the carryovers in terms of millions of bushels for the domestic Supply and Demand (S&D) and in terms of million metric tons (mts) for the world S

Tidbits Farm Aid: U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the Trump administration will unveil a “bridge payment” for farmers next week to provide short-term relief while longer trade and aid packages are finalized, amid pressure from farm groups and Republican lawmakers. The administration faces calls for more immediate funds for the next planting season, while expanding some farm supports in the latest spending bill. Overall, the U.S. government is expected to spend