BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Flash sale:  Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 198,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown.   The U.S. Supreme Court  did not issue a ruling yesterday on President Trump’s global tariffs.   The U.S. unemployment  rate edged down to 4.4% in December 2025, from a revised 4.5% in November, which had marked the highest level since October 2021. The reading also came in slightly below market expectations of 4.5%. The economy added 50,000 non-farm payrolls i

Tidbits Tariffs: The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to announce later this morning their decision on the legality of Trump’s tariffs. The administration faces the possibility of having to refund nearly $150 billion paid in tariffs to importers if the court declares that the sweeping duties Trump has imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are illegal. Venezuela: The U.S. Senate voted yesterday to advance a resolution that would bar President Donald Trump

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 264,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China 226,000 mts of old crop beans to unknown 186,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown Crude oil: OPEC’s latest monthly report maintained a firm demand outlook due to consistent demand in China and India while reiterating that non-OPEC supply growth is set to moderate in 2026. The group also noted that OPEC+ supply management continues to anchor market stability. In its

S&D Highlights Corn:  On yesterday’s S&D, corn received the strongest boost as exports increased by 125 million bushels and the carryover was reduced by the same amount to 2,029 million bushels, a 45 day supply, down 4 days from last month and well below market expectations. As is normal for December, there were no production changes on this S&D. World corn carryout was reduced by 86 million bushels, but the days’ use needle was not moved and is still at 79 days compared to 8

Tidbits Carryover, aka carryout, is the amount of old crop grain or oilseed that was not used during the marketing year. The job of the market is to make sure we never run out of food or fiber during every marketing year. When necessary, the market rations all commodities by raising the price so users will use less.     USDA reports the carryovers in terms of millions of bushels for the domestic Supply and Demand (S&D) and in terms of million metric tons (mts) for the world S

Tidbits Farm Aid: U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the Trump administration will unveil a “bridge payment” for farmers next week to provide short-term relief while longer trade and aid packages are finalized, amid pressure from farm groups and Republican lawmakers. The administration faces calls for more immediate funds for the next planting season, while expanding some farm supports in the latest spending bill. Overall, the U.S. government is expected to spend

Tidbits OPEC+  agreed to leave oil output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 at its meetings on Sunday as the group slows down its push to regain market share amid fears of a looming supply glut. The U.S. Manufacturing  PMI by S&P showed continued expansion in November, with a reading of 52.2, from 52.5 in October and well above 50, indicating sector growth for a fourth consecutive month; the index suggests slow improvement in operating conditions, driven by a str

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 330,000 mts of old crop beans to China. The U.S. administration will soon announce details of payments to farmers hurt by low crop prices and trade disputes, Secretary Rollins said yesterday. She also said that the USDA will be making an announcement about "structural changes" to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, also known as food stamps, the week after Thanksgiving. She has said all SNAP recip

Tidbits Shutdown: President Trump signed the funding bill to reopen the government. Federal employees should already be back at work. S&D: At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will release a World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) for the first time since 12 September. USDA will also issue all the daily exports sales in excess of 100,000 mts of grains that should have been reported but were not reported because of the shut-down. The daily sales reports may be mo

Tidbits November USDA S&D  report will be released this Friday. A Reuters' survey shows traders expect lower U.S. corn and soybean production. The average corn production is estimated at 16.557 billion bushels, down 257 million from September. The average yield is expected to slip from 186.7 to 184 bpa, while still a record. Despite the lower production, U.S. ending stocks are expected to rise slightly to 2.136 billion bushels due to higher carry-in stocks from last year’s cr

Tidbits Chinese and U.S.  officials will be meeting this weekend to prepare the agenda for next Thursday’s meeting of Trump and Xi to discuss “important issues”. Yesterday afternoon, Reuters reported that the Chinese oil majors have suspended purchases of Russian oil due to the U.S. sanctions. It seems like questionable news, because yesterday, commenting on U.S. sanctions against Russian oil companies, a representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated at a briefing tha

Tidbits Mid-day Saturday, President Trump issued this statement: Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment… The USA wants to help China, not hurt it.   Later Trump posted: China’s President Xi “just had a bad moment.”       China has softened their stance on their Friday announcement about rare earth mineral export controls. On Sunday morning, China issued this press release specifically about rare earth minerals: The re

Tidbits S&D: The USDA is not expected to release the October WASDE report tomorrow, but trade estimates were collected. The average estimate for U.S. corn production is 16.632 billion bushels with the yield of 184.8 bpa. The September WASDE report showed corn production at 16.814 billion bushels with a yield of 186.7 bpa. U.S. soybean production's average estimate is 4.267 billion bushels with a yield at 53.1 bpa, compared to 4.301 billion bushels and 53.5 bpa in September. U

Tidbits Basis bids: With all the recent talk about shallow water on the Lower Mississippi reducing barge capacity and increasing the cost of freight, we were surprised to learn that the soybean basis on the Lower River actually firmed 6 to 7¢ last week. Even more surprising is the soybean basis on the Upper Mississippi firmed 11 to 22¢ yesterday! What do they know that we do not know? Our guess is they know China will be buying U.S. soybeans. Rapid harvest progress, no China

Tidbits The corn stocks  number yesterday was 82 million bushels higher than the highest estimate and 196 million bushels more than the average estimate. Yesterday’s low on December corn was lower than the last two lows made on corrections after making new highs for the move in September. The trend of higher highs and higher lows since 12 August has been broken and the price went below the 20-day moving average, which is a bearish technical indicator. However, the SuperTrend

Tidbits Ag support:  Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke L. Rollins announced last week an aggressive three-point plan that will support American agricultural producers and exporters. “President Trump is putting American agriculture first by negotiating fair, reciprocal deals that benefit U.S. producers, farmers, and ranchers,”  said Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke J. Lindberg. “Secretary Rollins is focused on expanding market access, enforcing tr

Tidbits Soybeans: The U.S. may not be selling soybeans to the world’s largest soybean importer (China), but it looks like the U.S. will be selling beans to the world’s largest soybean producer (Brazil), which sells most of its beans to China. Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, Brazil soybean crushing plants near Brazil’s ports are running the numbers on importing U.S. soybeans instead of trying to get beans from the West Central area of Brazil, which is 600 to 1,000 miles away from t

Tidbits Economy: Yesterday’s news that shocked the financial markets was the number of new jobs reported by the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics for the 12 months ending in March 2025 was actually 911,000 less. This news comes after last week’s report that job growth almost stalled in August and the economy lost jobs in June for the first time in four and a half years. The revision means nonfarm payroll gains averaged about 71,000 per month, instead of the reported 147,000

Tidbits Trade estimates for USDA's August S&D on Tuesday: President Trump  will meet President Putin  in Alaska this Friday to discuss tariffs, sanctions, ending the war, etc.   Baker Hughes  reported there were 539 oil and gas drilling rigs in operation last week in the USA. That is 1 less than a week ago and 49 fewer than a year ago. Canada had 180 rigs drilling this past week, 3 more than the previous week, but 37 fewer than a year ago.

Tidbits The National Oilseed Processors Association ( NOPA ) reported yesterday at midday they crushed 185.709 million bushels of soybeans in June, a 6% increase from June 2024. The NOPA soybean crush has now set new monthly records 8 of the 10 months this marketing year. Soybean oil stocks were down 6.7 million to 1.366 billion lbs., slightly higher than trade expectations. This is the smallest June oil inventory since 2004, and 16% lower than a year earlier. To learn more a