BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits November USDA S&D  report will be released this Friday. A Reuters' survey shows traders expect lower U.S. corn and soybean production. The average corn production is estimated at 16.557 billion bushels, down 257 million from September. The average yield is expected to slip from 186.7 to 184 bpa, while still a record. Despite the lower production, U.S. ending stocks are expected to rise slightly to 2.136 billion bushels due to higher carry-in stocks from last year’s cr

Tidbits Chinese and U.S.  officials will be meeting this weekend to prepare the agenda for next Thursday’s meeting of Trump and Xi to discuss “important issues”. Yesterday afternoon, Reuters reported that the Chinese oil majors have suspended purchases of Russian oil due to the U.S. sanctions. It seems like questionable news, because yesterday, commenting on U.S. sanctions against Russian oil companies, a representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated at a briefing tha

Tidbits Mid-day Saturday, President Trump issued this statement: Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment… The USA wants to help China, not hurt it.   Later Trump posted: China’s President Xi “just had a bad moment.”       China has softened their stance on their Friday announcement about rare earth mineral export controls. On Sunday morning, China issued this press release specifically about rare earth minerals: The re

Tidbits S&D: The USDA is not expected to release the October WASDE report tomorrow, but trade estimates were collected. The average estimate for U.S. corn production is 16.632 billion bushels with the yield of 184.8 bpa. The September WASDE report showed corn production at 16.814 billion bushels with a yield of 186.7 bpa. U.S. soybean production's average estimate is 4.267 billion bushels with a yield at 53.1 bpa, compared to 4.301 billion bushels and 53.5 bpa in September. U

Tidbits Basis bids: With all the recent talk about shallow water on the Lower Mississippi reducing barge capacity and increasing the cost of freight, we were surprised to learn that the soybean basis on the Lower River actually firmed 6 to 7¢ last week. Even more surprising is the soybean basis on the Upper Mississippi firmed 11 to 22¢ yesterday! What do they know that we do not know? Our guess is they know China will be buying U.S. soybeans. Rapid harvest progress, no China

Tidbits The corn stocks  number yesterday was 82 million bushels higher than the highest estimate and 196 million bushels more than the average estimate. Yesterday’s low on December corn was lower than the last two lows made on corrections after making new highs for the move in September. The trend of higher highs and higher lows since 12 August has been broken and the price went below the 20-day moving average, which is a bearish technical indicator. However, the SuperTrend

Tidbits Ag support:  Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke L. Rollins announced last week an aggressive three-point plan that will support American agricultural producers and exporters. “President Trump is putting American agriculture first by negotiating fair, reciprocal deals that benefit U.S. producers, farmers, and ranchers,”  said Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke J. Lindberg. “Secretary Rollins is focused on expanding market access, enforcing tr

Tidbits Soybeans: The U.S. may not be selling soybeans to the world’s largest soybean importer (China), but it looks like the U.S. will be selling beans to the world’s largest soybean producer (Brazil), which sells most of its beans to China. Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, Brazil soybean crushing plants near Brazil’s ports are running the numbers on importing U.S. soybeans instead of trying to get beans from the West Central area of Brazil, which is 600 to 1,000 miles away from t

Tidbits Economy: Yesterday’s news that shocked the financial markets was the number of new jobs reported by the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics for the 12 months ending in March 2025 was actually 911,000 less. This news comes after last week’s report that job growth almost stalled in August and the economy lost jobs in June for the first time in four and a half years. The revision means nonfarm payroll gains averaged about 71,000 per month, instead of the reported 147,000

Tidbits Trade estimates for USDA's August S&D on Tuesday: President Trump  will meet President Putin  in Alaska this Friday to discuss tariffs, sanctions, ending the war, etc.   Baker Hughes  reported there were 539 oil and gas drilling rigs in operation last week in the USA. That is 1 less than a week ago and 49 fewer than a year ago. Canada had 180 rigs drilling this past week, 3 more than the previous week, but 37 fewer than a year ago.

Tidbits The National Oilseed Processors Association ( NOPA ) reported yesterday at midday they crushed 185.709 million bushels of soybeans in June, a 6% increase from June 2024. The NOPA soybean crush has now set new monthly records 8 of the 10 months this marketing year. Soybean oil stocks were down 6.7 million to 1.366 billion lbs., slightly higher than trade expectations. This is the smallest June oil inventory since 2004, and 16% lower than a year earlier. To learn more a

Tidbits Estimates for USDA’s S&D  to be released tomorrow at 10 AM Mountain Time: CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) later this morning will release its revisions for Brazil’s crop production estimates.   All products from Brazil  imported to the U.S. will have a 50% tariff  separate from Sectoral Tariffs (specific product tariffs), effective 1 August, as President Trump announced yesterday in an open letter to Brazil’s president. Brazil’s President Lula responded he will use the tariff r

Tidbits Every month the USDA issues a Cold Storage Report . They are usually not significant for grains, but Wednesday’s report showed all but one of the food categories in the nation’s commercial freezers are substantially less than a year ago: red meat down 4%; beef down 1%; pork down 7% including bellies down 26% (just before BLT season), cheese down 2%, and butter down 5%. Only American cheese inventory was up, 5% more than a year ago. “American cheese” is a distinct prod

Highlights Today at 10 AM Mountain Time, the USDA will release its June S&D . The biggest questions are what changes, if any, will USDA make on old crop corn exports and will an increase be offset by increased production from 2024 or a decrease of feed use and will the Brazilian corn crop be increased? USDA increased that crop by 4 million mts last month and most other crop predictions have been catching up to USDA’s number since then and now the average estimate is 131.5 mil

Tidbits Yesterday at midday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the trade talks  with China in London were going well and he hoped they would end on Tuesday night but said they could run into Wednesday. Later, he said the two sides have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between their respective presidents. ADM reports Trump is looking at rolling back the port fees  on China vessels scheduled to take effect in October. Dr. Cordonnier i

Highlights The highly respected London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG, which bought Refinitiv, formerly the Financial and Risk business of Thomson Reuters) predicts U.S. corn acres at 94.3 million (USDA 95.3). Stats Canada reported corn for grain stocks as of 31 March 2025, were down 13% from a year ago at 7.197 million mt. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 40,000 mts of old crop corn and 165,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico 115,000 mts of old crop corn to unkn

Tidbits The only excuse given for corn’s sharp losses yesterday was the planting progress being 2% more than a year ago. No doubt, yesterday being the last trading day before first notice day for deliveries on May futures had something to do with the decline. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of old crop corn to Spain and 110,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown. Also, an importer in Taiwan purchased 65,000 mts of U.S. corn and a South Korean im

Tidbits There was some progress with China yesterday. China stated it wants to see a number of steps from Donald Trump’s administration before it will agree to  trade talks , including showing more respect by reining in disparaging remarks by members of Trump's cabinet. China’s leadership wants the U.S. to appoint a point person for talks with China’s top trade negotiator. California on Wednesday filed a lawsuit seeking to block U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 240,000 mts of old crop corn to Spain. In February, U.S. agricultural trade deficit showed slight improvement, with exports decreasing to $13.59 billion (a drop of $830 million from January) and imports falling more sharply to $17.86 billion (down $2.81 billion). This reduction narrowed the monthly trade deficit to $4.27 billion, an improvement from January's record deficit of $6.25 billion. USDA projects 2025 financia

Highlights India is, by far, the largest world buyer of nitrogen fertilizer and they prefer urea. This past week India finally issued their first urea tender of 2025. It was expected to be issued from late January to the end of February. The nitrogen market-makers have been nervous and nitrogen retailers have been stressed the past few months waiting to see how much urea India would seek to buy and what price they would be willing to pay for it. That information is needed to