BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits S&D: The USDA is not expected to release the October WASDE report tomorrow, but trade estimates were collected. The average estimate for U.S. corn production is 16.632 billion bushels with the yield of 184.8 bpa. The September WASDE report showed corn production at 16.814 billion bushels with a yield of 186.7 bpa. U.S. soybean production's average estimate is 4.267 billion bushels with a yield at 53.1 bpa, compared to 4.301 billion bushels and 53.5 bpa in September. U

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 22,000 mts of soybean oil to South Korea.   Tariffs:  U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with the Chinese Vice Premier this coming week in Madrid to discuss national security, economic and trade issues.   The Financial Times reports the U.S. is pushing a plan for all G7 partners to adopt steep tariffs on China and India because of their purchasing of Russian crude oil.   Brazil:  The former con

The numbers were: Negative Corn and Soybeans Neutral Wheat    CBOT 30 Minutes After Report Dec corn +1 Nov beans +6 July CBOT wheat -3...

Tidbits Economy: Yesterday’s news that shocked the financial markets was the number of new jobs reported by the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics for the 12 months ending in March 2025 was actually 911,000 less. This news comes after last week’s report that job growth almost stalled in August and the economy lost jobs in June for the first time in four and a half years. The revision means nonfarm payroll gains averaged about 71,000 per month, instead of the reported 147,000

S&D Report Comment The biggest surprise on yesterday’s USDA S&D was the 2.1 million increase in corn planted acres and the decrease of 2.5 million acres of soybeans. The adjustment was made primarily as a result of the FSA certified acreage totals being available. This is the third consecutive year the FSA had the certified acreage paperwork completed before the August S&D. Always before, the certified acreage numbers were not available until September.   There is probably no

The numbers were:   Bearish Corn Yield was 188.8. That was higher than the highest estimate Corn acres were increased 2.1 million Bullish...

Tidbits Trade estimates for USDA's August S&D on Tuesday: President Trump  will meet President Putin  in Alaska this Friday to discuss tariffs, sanctions, ending the war, etc.   Baker Hughes  reported there were 539 oil and gas drilling rigs in operation last week in the USA. That is 1 less than a week ago and 49 fewer than a year ago. Canada had 180 rigs drilling this past week, 3 more than the previous week, but 37 fewer than a year ago.

Highlights USDA increased their old crop corn export projection on yesterday’s S&D by 100 million bushels to 2,750 million bushels. The past four S&D reports have increased this marketing year’s corn exports a total of 300 million bushels. Unfortunately, USDA also reduced feed use for corn by 75 million bushels yesterday even though the marketing year ends 31 August. The animal numbers reported by USDA in recent months do not justify a feed cut and there was no increase in fe

The numbers were: Very Friendly to Bullish Corn Neutral to Unfriendly Soybeans Neutral Wheat Every corn number on the report was less...

Tidbits Estimates for USDA’s S&D  to be released tomorrow at 10 AM Mountain Time: CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) later this morning will release its revisions for Brazil’s crop production estimates.   All products from Brazil  imported to the U.S. will have a 50% tariff  separate from Sectoral Tariffs (specific product tariffs), effective 1 August, as President Trump announced yesterday in an open letter to Brazil’s president. Brazil’s President Lula responded he will use the tariff r

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Neutral Soybeans Friendly Wheat    40 Minutes After the Report: July Corn unchg Dec corn -1 July beans -9...

Highlights Today at 10 AM Mountain Time, the USDA will release its June S&D . The biggest questions are what changes, if any, will USDA make on old crop corn exports and will an increase be offset by increased production from 2024 or a decrease of feed use and will the Brazilian corn crop be increased? USDA increased that crop by 4 million mts last month and most other crop predictions have been catching up to USDA’s number since then and now the average estimate is 131.5 mil

Highlights The U.S. and China trade agreement details announced yesterday morning: A 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Both Countries dropped their tariff rates by 115 percent points. The U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reduced from 145% to 30%. China’s tariffs on U.S. goods will be 10%, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 91% removed. China removed all non-tariff countermeasures (all “lame” excuses like quotas, phyto-sanitary restrictions, etc.) China sent their deputy minist

The numbers were: Friendly to Bullish Corn Friendly Soybeans Negative U.S. Wheat    40 Minutes After the Report: July Corn +4 Dec corn +3...

Tidbits The day before yesterday’s trade talk between China  and the U.S. were to begin, President Trump said reducing the tariff  to 80% on Chinese goods "seems right," suggesting an alternative to the current 145% tariff. The meeting took place in Geneva as scheduled yesterday, but neither side made any comment about the discussion other than they will meet again today. Saturday's talks began in the morning and continued into the evening. It is generally considered a positi

Highlights The biggest news piece from yesterday’s S&D was the USDA increased corn exports by 100 million bushels. As many expected, the corn for feed was reduced by 25 million bushels, so the carryout was reduced by 75 million bushels, which took the carryout from a 37 day supply to a 35 day supply. The market expected a 30 million bushel reduction in the corn carryout. USDA did not change any of the corn or soybean production numbers for Brazil, Argentina, or Paraguay. Stud

The numbers were: Friendly to Bullish Corn Friendly Soybeans Negative U.S. Wheat  Neutral World Wheat    20 Minutes After the Report: May...

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 240,000 mts of old crop corn to Spain. In February, U.S. agricultural trade deficit showed slight improvement, with exports decreasing to $13.59 billion (a drop of $830 million from January) and imports falling more sharply to $17.86 billion (down $2.81 billion). This reduction narrowed the monthly trade deficit to $4.27 billion, an improvement from January's record deficit of $6.25 billion. USDA projects 2025 financia

Highlights The USDA could have and should have increased corn exports and ethanol use on yesterday’s S&D, but it did not, as we predicted. If you noted our summary chart of weekly exports inspections we send you every Tuesday, yesterday’s chart showed you the USDA projects corn exports this marketing year to be 6.9% more than a year ago, but with half the marketing year still ahead of us, corn exports are running 38% ahead of year ago. We know corn exports will slow down in t

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Friendly Soybeans Negative Wheat     10 Minutes After the Report: May Corn +1.5 Dec corn -0.25 May beans...