Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA announced yesterday the sale of 264,000 mts of old crop corn to Mexico. Soy Crush & Exports: The total volume of soybean processing in the U.S., Argentina, and Brazil during the September–August 2025/26 marketing year reached a record high of 176.7 million mts, 5.2% higher from the previous year’s 167.9 million, according to Oil World from Germany. The U.S. crushed 72.1 million mts and 8.4% more compared to a year ago, Brazil at 61.76 million and

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Neutral to Friendly Soybeans & Wheat CBOT 28 minutes after report: Dec corn +2 Nov beans -29 July CBOT wheat -14 July KC wheat -16 Sept Spring wheat -6 For no justifiable reason, all markets were sharply lower before the report was released. After the report was released, all markets jumped higher. Then faded after the report back to where they were before the report except corn.

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA announced yesterday the sales of old crop soybeans: 272,000 mts to China and 206,500 mts to unknown. Chinese purchases of U.S. beans have likely reached 13 million mts with Chinese leader Xi visiting Washington 2 weeks away. The market expects them to buy 25 million during the marketing year. South America: Brazilian September exports of soybean are expected to reach 7.74 million mts, up 11% from a year ago. Their corn exports are expected at onl

Tidbits Field feedback from Dave, who farms just northwest of Chicago: “Took a trip to Tulsa over the weekend. In my opinion, Iowa looks great. Corn and beans along with northern half Missouri, southwest Missouri they are chopping or getting ready to harvest corn into Oklahoma, double crop beans look terrible. Came back thru St. Louis up thru Springfield, Bloomington to Rockford, corn has run out of gas, yellow green look like middle September, beans look great. Keep in mind

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Neutral to Friendly Soybeans Neutral to Friendly Wheat CBOT 30 Minutes After Report: Dec corn +11 Jan beans +5 July CBOT wheat +16 July KC wheat +24 Sept Spring wheat +16 Harvested Acres Up: Corn 1.2 million, Soybeans 1.4 million

Tidbits Crude oil prices jumped 5% yesterday as hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded. Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 105,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. Yes, the 2025 crop, with just 3 weeks left to export it! The USDA is extending the deadline for farmers to apply for Stages 1 and 2 of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) to 30 September 2026. Additionally, USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) is prov

S&D The USDA will issue its August S&D on Wednesday. This is the first 2026 crop production report in which yields will not be accounting estimates based upon unknown assumptions. While the yield numbers will not be based on field survey results, the yield numbers will be based on survey reports from approximately 15,000 farmers across the country of their individual crop conditions, expectations, and projected yields based on what they see in their fields at the beginning of

USDA’s July S&D Yesterday’s USDA numbers were supportive for corn, wheat, and beans, but wheat got an extra boost from Russia restricting access to waterways leading to the Sea of Azov (southeast of Ukraine) following Ukrainian attacks on oil tankers operating in the region. Analysts calculate that could take 735 million bushels off the world wheat market. Russia is the world’s leading wheat exporter. Confirmation from USDA that U.S. 2026 wheat production is the lowest in 56

The report was: Friendly Wheat Friendly Soybeans Bullish Corn: Old Crop World Corn Carryover 3 mil mts less than the lowest estimate US Corn exports and feed use increased 50 Minutes after the July S&D Was Issued: Dec Corn +8 Nov Beans +5 Sept SRW Wheat +21 Sept HRW Wheat +23 Sept HRS Wheat +14 There were no corn or soybean yield changes

Tidbits Some analysts said the sharply higher crude oil was why CBOT prices were smartly lower yesterday while other analysts said it was the belt of scattered showers from Kansas to Minnesota with more in the forecast for today and tomorrow. We will side with the rain for the lower prices. When it is July and rain is falling on Iowa, corn and beans will be down. Some weakness is caused every month by the fear of the USDA monthly S&D, which will be released tomorrow at 11 AM

June S&D Yesterday’s USDA June S&D was about as expected except for the increase of South American corn crops. USDA increased old crop corn imports by 3 million bushels which carried through to the carryover. Old crop soybean exports were reduced by 20 million bushels, but the old crop soybean crush was increased the same 20 million bushels, which left the carryover unchanged at 340 million bushels, a 29 day supply. There was no change in the 2026 corn or bean production numb

Numbers were: Slightly Friendly Wheat Slightly Negative Corn due to increased world carryovers Neutral Soybeans 25 Minutes after the June S&D Was Issued: July Corn -3.5 Dec Corn -4 July Beans -8.5 Nov Beans -5 July SRW Wheat +1 July HRW Wheat +5 Sept HRS Wheat +2

Tidbits June S&D: At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will issue its June S&D. It most likely will have very little impact on the markets. It is too early for USDA to change yields or acres for corn and beans. Wheat production could be interesting, but wheat harvest is just getting a good start. The demand side could see an increase in corn exports, a decrease in soybean exports with an increase in soybean crush. Will USDA reduce or increase the size of Brazil’s safrinha co

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday, the USDA reported sales of 120,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown destinations. Yesterday’s corn market action was not nearly as bullish as we hoped after losing 38¢ in 13 days, a “hook reversal” on Monday, the crop ratings after the close Monday afternoon were not as good as the market expected, and another corn flash sale yesterday morning. None-the-less, there were some positive indicators yesterday for the corn market: The lead futures mont

Tidbits Yesterday’s S&D was decided bullish for wheat, friendly for soybeans and longer term friendly for corn because the world corn carryout on 31 August 2027 is projected to be a 77 day supply. Four years ago this week, December corn traded to $7.66 with the world new crop corn carryout projected to be a 94 day supply. Granted, the U.S corn carryout that year was projected to be 34 day supply whereas this year’s domestic new crop corn carryover is projected to be a 44 day

Old crop carryovers were just about as expected for everything except world wheat was 3.8 million mts less than expected and 2.8 million mts less than the lowest estimate. That small old crop wheat carryover and short new crop production made the new crop wheat world carryover just above the lowest estimate and well below expectations. World new crop corn carrover was 9.2 million mts less than expected. Note the world corn carryover has been relatively tight for several y

Tidbits Fuel: The Department of Treasury has scheduled a public hearing for 27 May on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. The proposed rule defines eligibility, emissions rates, and certification requirements. California’s year-end data has just been released. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) consumption reached 119.5 million gallons in 2025. U.S. Economy: Yesterday, the S&P 500 rose nearly 1% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.7% as both indexes made new highs. The Dow J

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday, the USDA reported sales of 136,000 mts of old crop corn to South Korea. Annual U.S. retail inflation was reported at 2.8% in February, the same pace as in the previous month and matching expectations. Core annual inflation excluding food and energy was 3%, down from 3.1% in the prior month. Both remain well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 on the week ending April 4th, higher than was expected, t

CBOT 10 Minutes After The April S&D Report May corn -4 Dec Corn -3 May beans +2 Nov Benas +1 July CBOT wheat -10 July KC wheat -9 Sept Spring wheat -5 Above prices were just slightly weaker after the report than before the report. Biggest news is soybean exports were reduced by 35 million bushels, but soybean crush was increased by the same amount. No changes in South A merican crop sizes.

Tidbits S&D: As expected, the USDA did not make any significant changes to the U.S. balance sheets, as ending stocks of corn, soybeans, and wheat remained unchanged. Corn global inventories rose nearly 3 million mts; production rose 1.7 million mts in Ukraine and 1 million mts in Brazil, while down 1 million mts in Argentina. The average U.S. Farm price for 2025/26 at $4.10 and for 2026/27 it was pegged at $4.20 in February.