BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

USDA's S&D Highlights The highlights of yesterday’s USDA data were: Corn yield: 186.5, 1.2 bushels above the highest  pre-report estimate.     Corn production was 294 million bushels more than the highest  estimate. Corn harvested acres: 900,000 more than the highest estimate with an increase of 1.22 million in January after an increase of 1.38 million in September after a 1.93 million increase  in August. Corn world carryover was 7.91 million mts more than the highest estima

The numbers were bearish for corn, wheat and beans.   CBOT 20 Minutes After Report Mar corn -17 Mar beans -14 July CBOT wheat -8 July KC wheat -9 Sept Spring wheat -1    Do not panic sell. If anything, buy some futures to offset previous cash sales. There will not be any worse news than this and users will be buying ahead. The market is not going to believe these corn production numbers.

Tidbits Flash sale:  Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 198,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown.   The U.S. Supreme Court  did not issue a ruling yesterday on President Trump’s global tariffs.   The U.S. unemployment  rate edged down to 4.4% in December 2025, from a revised 4.5% in November, which had marked the highest level since October 2021. The reading also came in slightly below market expectations of 4.5%. The economy added 50,000 non-farm payrolls i

Tidbits Tariffs: The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to announce later this morning their decision on the legality of Trump’s tariffs. The administration faces the possibility of having to refund nearly $150 billion paid in tariffs to importers if the court declares that the sweeping duties Trump has imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are illegal. Venezuela: The U.S. Senate voted yesterday to advance a resolution that would bar President Donald Trump

S&D Highlights Corn:  On yesterday’s S&D, corn received the strongest boost as exports increased by 125 million bushels and the carryover was reduced by the same amount to 2,029 million bushels, a 45 day supply, down 4 days from last month and well below market expectations. As is normal for December, there were no production changes on this S&D. World corn carryout was reduced by 86 million bushels, but the days’ use needle was not moved and is still at 79 days compared to 8

The numbers were overall a non-event: Friendly for corn Supportive for soybeans  Neutral wheat   CBOT 20 Minutes After Report Mar corn +3 Jan beans -7 July CBOT wheat -2 July KC wheat -2 Sept Spring wheat +1    The 2024-25 numbers are meaningless as that marketing year ended three months ago!

Tidbits Carryover, aka carryout, is the amount of old crop grain or oilseed that was not used during the marketing year. The job of the market is to make sure we never run out of food or fiber during every marketing year. When necessary, the market rations all commodities by raising the price so users will use less.     USDA reports the carryovers in terms of millions of bushels for the domestic Supply and Demand (S&D) and in terms of million metric tons (mts) for the world S

November S&D Last year, the USDA started the 2024 corn crop with a yield of 181 in May and continued that yield in June and July. In August, USDA put the yield at 183.2, then 183.6 in September, then 183.8 in October, 183.1 in November. There is no crop production report in December, so the December S&D always has the same yield as November S&D. This year may be different because of the shut down, but we doubt it.   On 10 January 2025, March corn was $4.52, 52¢ above its cont

The USDA WASDE (S&D) numbers were negative everything.   CBOT 40 Minutes After Report Dec corn -9 Jan beans -15 July CBOT wheat -10 July KC wheat -10 Sept Spring wheat -6    Corn will soon resume the uptrend – world supplies tighten and market does not believe 186 yield.

Tidbits Shutdown: President Trump signed the funding bill to reopen the government. Federal employees should already be back at work. S&D: At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will release a World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) for the first time since 12 September. USDA will also issue all the daily exports sales in excess of 100,000 mts of grains that should have been reported but were not reported because of the shut-down. The daily sales reports may be mo

Tidbits November USDA S&D  report will be released this Friday. A Reuters' survey shows traders expect lower U.S. corn and soybean production. The average corn production is estimated at 16.557 billion bushels, down 257 million from September. The average yield is expected to slip from 186.7 to 184 bpa, while still a record. Despite the lower production, U.S. ending stocks are expected to rise slightly to 2.136 billion bushels due to higher carry-in stocks from last year’s cr

Tidbits S&D: The USDA is not expected to release the October WASDE report tomorrow, but trade estimates were collected. The average estimate for U.S. corn production is 16.632 billion bushels with the yield of 184.8 bpa. The September WASDE report showed corn production at 16.814 billion bushels with a yield of 186.7 bpa. U.S. soybean production's average estimate is 4.267 billion bushels with a yield at 53.1 bpa, compared to 4.301 billion bushels and 53.5 bpa in September. U

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 22,000 mts of soybean oil to South Korea.   Tariffs:  U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with the Chinese Vice Premier this coming week in Madrid to discuss national security, economic and trade issues.   The Financial Times reports the U.S. is pushing a plan for all G7 partners to adopt steep tariffs on China and India because of their purchasing of Russian crude oil.   Brazil:  The former con

The numbers were: Negative Corn and Soybeans Neutral Wheat    CBOT 30 Minutes After Report Dec corn +1 Nov beans +6 July CBOT wheat -3...

Tidbits Economy: Yesterday’s news that shocked the financial markets was the number of new jobs reported by the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics for the 12 months ending in March 2025 was actually 911,000 less. This news comes after last week’s report that job growth almost stalled in August and the economy lost jobs in June for the first time in four and a half years. The revision means nonfarm payroll gains averaged about 71,000 per month, instead of the reported 147,000

S&D Report Comment The biggest surprise on yesterday’s USDA S&D was the 2.1 million increase in corn planted acres and the decrease of 2.5 million acres of soybeans. The adjustment was made primarily as a result of the FSA certified acreage totals being available. This is the third consecutive year the FSA had the certified acreage paperwork completed before the August S&D. Always before, the certified acreage numbers were not available until September.   There is probably no

The numbers were:   Bearish Corn Yield was 188.8. That was higher than the highest estimate Corn acres were increased 2.1 million Bullish...

Tidbits Trade estimates for USDA's August S&D on Tuesday: President Trump  will meet President Putin  in Alaska this Friday to discuss tariffs, sanctions, ending the war, etc.   Baker Hughes  reported there were 539 oil and gas drilling rigs in operation last week in the USA. That is 1 less than a week ago and 49 fewer than a year ago. Canada had 180 rigs drilling this past week, 3 more than the previous week, but 37 fewer than a year ago.

Highlights USDA increased their old crop corn export projection on yesterday’s S&D by 100 million bushels to 2,750 million bushels. The past four S&D reports have increased this marketing year’s corn exports a total of 300 million bushels. Unfortunately, USDA also reduced feed use for corn by 75 million bushels yesterday even though the marketing year ends 31 August. The animal numbers reported by USDA in recent months do not justify a feed cut and there was no increase in fe

The numbers were: Very Friendly to Bullish Corn Neutral to Unfriendly Soybeans Neutral Wheat Every corn number on the report was less...