The numbers we reported to you yesterday afternoon compared to what was expected were friendly for corn and negative for soybeans. The wheat numbers were also friendly as the US wheat carryover was 40 million bushels less than expected, 29 million bushels less than last month and peeled 7 days’ worth of use off the carryout. Despite all that, the USDA lowered the national average price expected to be paid to farmers for 2022 wheat by a whopping $1.25 to $9.25 a bushel. The spring wheat production came in at 512 million bushels, 2 million more than expected, which is nothing, but it was 9 million bushels more spring wheat production than the USDA saw in July; 9 billion is something, but not much. Durum wheat production was at 74 million bushels vs. 77 million expected and 77 million in July.
Corn yield was four-tenths of a bushel less than expected and 1.4 less than the July estimate. This yield estimate was done by satellite. We are guessing satellites cannot detect pollination problems, which there seems to be more than usual pollination problems this year. In September, USDA will go into the fields to do plant population, ear counts and kernel rows and weights. That just might result in a very bullish production number in September or October. In any case, it is very unlikely corn yields will improve on later reports.