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Highlights, Russian Wheat, Gloom&Doom, Export Sales, Markets & Rain Days Update 7/15/22


A/C Trading is a full service commodity brokerage located directly between Chicago and Indianapolis in Brookston, Indiana. Jim Gerlach is their President and director of their full service grain market consulting. Jim shared his perspective on the soybean situation yesterday:

The market is focusing on macro-economic gloom and doom for soybean and corn demand when it should be focusing on the weather forecast for the Midwest. If US soybean yields drop just 1% from the USDA estimate, ending stocks would slide to 185 million bushels with an ending stocks (carryover) to use ratio of 4.1% (a 15 day supply), which would be the tightest since 2013/14. If yields drop 2%, ending stocks would be 140 million bushel with a 3.1% stocks to use ratio (a 11.3 day supply).

A 1% soybean yield reduction is a half bushel. We may have already lost a half bushel.

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