Yesterday’s rumors were China bought 2-3 cargos of US soybeans and as many as 6 bean cargos from Brazil all for September shipment. Considering US beans at the Gulf are $25 per ton cheaper than Brazilian beans and Brazil’s short crop this past harvest means they have about 20 million fewer mts of beans to export, we are thinking it is more likely most of those rumored beans sales were US beans. China may be Communist, but they are not stupid Communists. A Benson-Quinn analyst wrote after the close Thursday:
In beans, the price pattern of late has been 3 hard days followed by a quick recovery rally. This recovery rally felt a little different, but I think we’ll have to wait until the overnight for confirmation. From a technical standpoint, I like the price action in beans and meal. Despite signs of weakening over the last couple of weeks, old crop cash values remain firm and indicate there are some needs.
Given the crush margin at the start of this week was $3.70 a bushel compared to $2.37 a year ago and $1.44 two years ago, do not be thinking demand for beans is poor.