Highlights
Russia admitted it fired the missiles into the harbor at Odessa, but they say the target was military infrastructure and that the grain deal still stands.
Yesterday afternoon, a UN spokesperson said all parties to the Ukraine Black Sea export deal have confirmed they are still on board even after the missile attack.
Ukraine hopes to get the first vessel load of grain on the water this week from Chornomorsk, just south of Odessa.
Cargill and Continental Grain Company announced the completion of the acquisition of Sanderson Farms, Inc.
The Wheat Quality Council’s annual spring wheat tour begins today.
USDA will continue field evaluation of the oral rabies vaccine bait ONRAB in seven states to test its effectiveness on raccoons, skunks and other wildlife.
The difference of dryland versus irrigated corn in Southern Kansas:
The map of 24 hour ending yesterday morning:
Corn Demand
Last evening Lance sent Roger an article by Darin Newsom discussing corn demand. Darin is a grain market analyst and commentator who, over the last 30 plus years, has built his own way of analyzing markets. All farmers alive today have read some of his work. His latest article, Let's talk About Corn Demand, was published by Barchart.
In a nutshell, Darin points out the Barchart National Corn Basis Index (NCBI) last Friday was 85.2 cents over September futures. Last year was an incredibly strong corn basis, yet, a year ago this week, the NCBI was 75.6 cents over September. Additionally, the 2016 to 2020 five-year average close for the third week of July was 8.2 cents UNDER September.
Just a reminder the low in December corn in 2020 was $3.20 on August 4th, which is next week, Folks. Less than 12 weeks later, December corn traded over $4.20. Some of you sold 2020 corn in the spring of 2021 well over $7.00.
Darin's point was there has been no "demand destruction" for the corn market. In fact, just the opposite. There is no truer measure of demand than basis. Futures reflects world supply and demand. Since the futures market does not require or allow delivery until some future date, it is the basis which reflects the real, here and now, demand.
One year ago today, September 2021 corn settled at $5.49¾, up 2½ cents. As I (Roger) write this, September 2022 corn is $5.94¼, 45 cents firmer than a year ago and yet the national basis is 9½ cents firmer than a year ago. Those of you who know even a little about grain marketing, know that the basis usually weakens when the futures are firm and the basis is usually firm when futures are weak. Darin is warning all the young market analysts not to buy into this popular baloney of demand destruction. It simply is not happening. It is a great article and we recommend you read it at: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/9304190/let-s-talk-about-corn-demand
Export Inspections Tracker
Market Data
This morning:
Crude oil is at $98.42, up $1.72
The dollar index is at 106.47, down 0.01
December palm oil is at 3,837 MYR, up 118. The contract high was made April, 29th at 6,384 MYR. Palm oil owns 36% and soybean oil owns 28% world market share.
December cotton is at $92.70, up $1.64 per cwt. The contract high was made May, 17th at $133.79 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres.
December natural gas is at $8.807, up 0.101. The contract high was made June, 8th at $9.675. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer.
December ULSD is at $3.3678 per gallon, up 0.0528. The contract high was made June, 17th at $4.0719. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.
September Dow Futures is at 31,870, down 97. The lifetime high is 36,832 on January 5th, 2022.
Rain Days Update
The Western Corn Belt has 1 less rain days in the 10 day forecast than yesterday and the Eastern Corn Belt has 3 more rain daysthan yesterday.
The 6 to 10 day forecast updated every day at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
Explanation of Rain Days
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