BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Corn basis  continues to firm. Dan reported Heritage Coop in West Central Ohio firmed from -45Z (45¢ under Dec futures) last Friday, to -40Z on Monday, to -37Z yesterday. More than half the corn is still in the field in that area where yields are not as good as expected in early August, but above average. Agronomists have identified the area west of Galesburg, Illinois, including communities of Alexis, Joy, Monmouth, Kirkwood, etc., as the Tarspot Ground Zero of the C

Tidbits Politics and economics:  Thursday evening, the U.S. Senate passed its version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2026. It authorizes $913.9 billion in defense spending. The NDAA sets policy and funding priorities for the Department of Defense (or War), including modernization of military capabilities, support for service members, and enhancements to national security technologies. It now heads to the conference committee for reconciliatio

Tidbits S&D: The USDA is not expected to release the October WASDE report tomorrow, but trade estimates were collected. The average estimate for U.S. corn production is 16.632 billion bushels with the yield of 184.8 bpa. The September WASDE report showed corn production at 16.814 billion bushels with a yield of 186.7 bpa. U.S. soybean production's average estimate is 4.267 billion bushels with a yield at 53.1 bpa, compared to 4.301 billion bushels and 53.5 bpa in September. U

Tidbits Farm aid: The Trump administration is expected to announce a plan as soon as Tuesday to bail out U.S. farmers stung by trade disputes and big harvests, with the initial outlay potentially totaling up to $15 billion. The plan, however, could be difficult to roll out as an ongoing government shutdown prevents the kind of Congressional action needed to approve such a large payout, and existing government reserves fall short. Analysts estimate U.S. corn harvest was 29% co

Tidbits Basis Bids:  On Thursday, St. Louis basis changes were: Soybean -12X (12¢ under November futures), was 10¢, the strongest level since August 13th. Corn 8¢ firmer to 4 over the December futures price. Soft Red Winter wheat was up 16¢ at -17Z (17¢ under December futures price). The Lower Mississippi is expected to drop below 8 feet by next Friday.   President Trump and Chinese President Xi  are scheduled to meet on 31 October.   Crude oil:  With crude oil refinery runs

Tidbits Basis bids: With all the recent talk about shallow water on the Lower Mississippi reducing barge capacity and increasing the cost of freight, we were surprised to learn that the soybean basis on the Lower River actually firmed 6 to 7¢ last week. Even more surprising is the soybean basis on the Upper Mississippi firmed 11 to 22¢ yesterday! What do they know that we do not know? Our guess is they know China will be buying U.S. soybeans. Rapid harvest progress, no China

Tidbits Basis: Delphos, Ohio Bunge soybean crush plant weakened their fall delivery basis by 5¢ to -35X (35¢ under November futures) on Monday or Tuesday. Producers Ag’s Canton, Kansas facility weakened their fall delivery corn basis by 5¢ to -35Z (35¢ under December) yesterday as did Cargill at its corn syrup plant in Dayton, Ohio to -25Z.   If you have not made a decision about setting fall delivery basis, make it today. That does not mean you should blindly set the basis o

Tidbits Today is the day that all August futures positions and basis contracts must be liquidated before the close and the Federal Reserve will announce its decision about interest rates  about the time the CBOT grain quits trading. Iowachill.com reported maximum wind speed  Monday night/Tuesday morning: U.S. and Chinese  officials agreed to seek an extension of their 90-day tariff truce after two days of talks in Stockholm, with no major breakthroughs announced. The decision

Tidbits Multiple weather forecasters stated yesterday conditions were forming that could produce a Derecho last night from Central South Dakota southeast through Iowa into Illinois.     Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 35,000 mt of old crop corn to unknown 194,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown 225,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico.   US and Chinese  officials met Monday in Sweden, trying to agree to extend the trade truce that is set to expire August 12.

Tidbits The U.S. struck a framework trade deal with the EU  on Sunday, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, but averting a spiraling battle between the two economic powers which account for almost a third of global trade. The announcement came after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen traveled for talks with President Trump at his golf course in Western Scotland. They shook hands on a hard-fought deal.   The deal mirrors key parts of the framework agr

Tidbits Those of you who must deliver corn and beans this fall , if you have not already assessed production in your area versus normal production compared to the fall delivery basis being offered now, get with it. Normally, fall delivery basis needs to be set very late July or the first week of August. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes  closed at record highs  yesterday, as optimism over strong corporate earnings outweighed ongoing trade tensions. It is very discouraging

Q: What are indications the soybean basis will firm? Basis will firm as demand increases and/or available supply decreases. What are the...

Tidbits New contract lows were set in corn yesterday. July set it at $4.08 and December hit a low at $4.21. The July soybean contract traded down 21½¢ to settle at $10.25¼ and November finished down 18½¢ to settle the day at $10.18½. Soybean meal and soybean oil were lower on the day. The seasonal trend is a tough one to fight with. The Argentine province of Buenos Aires received snow yesterday for the first time in 18 years. Brazil’s  state of Paraná reported widespread fros

Tidbits The U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steven Wittkoff, was scheduled to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran to discuss Iran's response to the U.S. nuclear deal proposal. The meeting was cancelled.   Iran has reached out to Oman and Qatar, requesting that they mediate with Washington to halt the ongoing Israeli strikes and restart nuclear talks, a source familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post Sunday.   Saudi Arabia is also working

Q&A: Old Crop Soybean Basis Question from a client: Thanks for all the good info in your emails.   I wanted to share some local basis info and suggest you encourage farmers not to wait too long like I did to lock in basis.   I sold soybeans on a July futures contract last winter and waited for the basis to improve at our local processor in Mankato, MN over the past several months it has been improving going from -.40 a few cents at a time time -.35, -.25, -.20 etc usually sta

Tidbits Corn was sharply lower yesterday because of the weekly ethanol report (see below) and the fear of Monday’s USDA acreage and inventory report as well as continued tariff rhetoric. New orders for durable goods in the U.S.  unexpectedly increased $2.7 billion or up 0.9% in February versus January following an upwardly revised 3.3% jump in January. The market expected February durable goods to be down 1%. Later this morning, we will get the U.S. GDP update. The market exp

Highlights The Producer Price Index for July was reported yesterday +0.1%, better than the expected +0.2%. As a result, the dollar was sharply weaker because interest rates are more likely to be reduced sooner rather than later. A lower dollar makes US products cheaper for foreign buyers. Usually, crude oil is higher when the dollar is weaker, but it is not working that way this week. CBOT commodities used to be supported by a sharply weaker dollar, but not in 2024 and yester

Tidbits Strategies Grain lowered their EU soft wheat production estimate by 5.8 million to 116.5 million tons, 8.4% lower from 2023.   The USDA expects the EU 2024/25 wheat crop to decline by 6% from the previous year to 127.4 million tons. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) also revised its projection for the 2024/25 EU corn crop 4.2 million lower to 59.8 million mts. Overall, the EU is projected to produce 267.3 million tons of grain, down more than 8 million from t

Make Decision This Week About Fall Delivery Basis Last year the same recommendation was made about setting fall delivery basis in late July and again the first week in August.   Several clients called the first half of September and asked if they should be setting fall delivery basis?   Roger remembers one of the conversations very well and it went like this on 12 September 2023:   – Should I be setting fall delivery basis on my beans? I will not have enough storage for all o

Highlights Early Friday morning CrowdStrike deployed a content update to its Falcon Sensor agents, which triggered a system-level error that prevented Windows operating systems from booting properly. This resulted in a "Blue Screen of Death" or BSOD error on many Windows systems across various sectors, including banking, healthcare, government, and critical infrastructure. There is no indication of a hack; somebody simply made a mistake.     In premarket trading Friday mornin