The price outlook we have remains lower wheat into August with old and new corn and beans to make new highs in the May June time frame.
Yesterday’s USDA numbers were mildly bearish for both domestic and world wheat markets and friendly for both corn and beans.
Brazil’s soybean crop was reduced 7 million mt to 127 million and the Argentine crop was reduced 2 million mt to 43 million. All private estimates are less for both countries and the market fully expects USDA to be lower in the coming months. It is just the way USDA does things. By the way, Paraguay’s soybean crop was reduced a million mt to 5.3 million, about half a crop for those folks. Brazil’s bean exports were reduced by 5 and Argentina’s bean exports were reduced by 1 million mt while US soybean exports were increased 1.1 million mt (40 million bushels). China’s soybean imports were reduced from 97 to 94 million mt.
Ukrainian corn exports were reduced 6 million mt to 27.5 million, while Russia’s corn exports were left unchanged at 4.5 million mt as were Argentina’s at 39 million and Brazil’s at 43 million mt. China’s corn imports were left unchanged at 26 million mt.
Who do you think will supply those 6 million mt of corn exports Ukraine will not be shipping? USDA thinks the USA will do some because US corn exports were increased by 100 million bushels or about 3 million mt. USDA also increased corn for ethanol use by 25 million bushels, taking the US corn carryover down 3 days to a 35 day supply.