BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits U.S. farming: The Trump administration was expected to announce yesterday a plan to bail out U.S. farmers, but a White House spokeswoman said: “No decisions regarding new agricultural policies have been made.” Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his 2025 U.S. corn yield estimate by 1 bushel to 181 bpa, while the soybean yield forecast remained unchanged at 52 bpa. His bias is neutral-to-lower for both crops. U.S. farmers are cautiously optimistic about the long term but facing

Tidbits Wheat export:  This wheat marketing year began 1 June. Total export wheat sales for this marketing year stand at 6.5 million mts, up from 5 million mts last year at this point. By wheat class, HRW sales are 2.6 million mts, up from 1.1 million last year, white wheat at 1.3 million mts, up from 1.2 million last year, and SRW export sales at 857,000 mts, up from 804,000 mts last year.   Corn:  A South Dakota client said yesterday he has 21 fields of corn and 16 of them

Tidbits Yesterday was the last trading day of the week, the month, and the marketing year for corn and soybeans. Unusual things can happen in a market on such days and so it was yesterday!   Corn  was sharply higher yesterday without any new news. We all know that yields will most likely come down in the coming months, corn and wheat exports are great and bean exports are great considering China is not buying any U.S. beans, ethanol crush is good, dry weather and disease will

Tidbits Export Markets by Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities Saturday 9 August 2025: Soybean Premiums (basis)  Continue to Rise, Brazilian Corn Can't Compete   This past week the soybean market was marked by intense demand from China, which purchased more than 40 vessels. This strong demand is driving up premiums for Brazilian soybeans, making them increasingly expensive and difficult to trade, not only due to rising prices but also due to logistical challenges and a lack

Tidbits Last evening’s sharply lower opening for corn, beans, and wheat was expected by some while others expected a steady to better opening at the worst. The National Weather Service has the Corn Belt looking less favorable for crops and demand for U.S. origin grains looks strong as the dollar continues to decline and Brazil’s real strengthens. The ban on non-North American produced feedstocks for U.S. biofuels tax credits and subsidies beginning in 2026 is the most bullish

Highlights The 2025 Hard Red Winter Wheat Tour  hosted by the Wheat Quality Council wrapped up yesterday with scouts predicting Kansas will harvest 338.5 million bushels of wheat this year. Of the last five years, only in 2021 did Kansas produce more wheat than it will this year; 364 million bushels in 2021. Last year, Kansas produced 307 million bushels. The other three years (2020, 2022, 2023) were all less than 300 million bushels with the worst being 201.3 million bushels

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 240,000 mts of old crop corn to Spain. In February, U.S. agricultural trade deficit showed slight improvement, with exports decreasing to $13.59 billion (a drop of $830 million from January) and imports falling more sharply to $17.86 billion (down $2.81 billion). This reduction narrowed the monthly trade deficit to $4.27 billion, an improvement from January's record deficit of $6.25 billion. USDA projects 2025 financia

Highlights The main point of interest on yesterday’s S&D was what would the USDA do with corn and bean yields. The market expected both to be reduced slightly. USDA did lower bean yields one-tenth of a bushel, as expected, but increased corn yields two-tenths of a bushel while the market expected a two-tenths of a bushel reduction.   USDA increased corn demand by 73 million bushels, bringing the total increase in corn demand since 1 November to 813 million bushels! Throw in t

At least one farmer in West Central Ohio who thought he had Tar Spot on his corn had his agronomist look at his fields who said the fungus was Northern Corn Leaf Blight, not Tar Spot. Since some of the corn had started to dent, the agronomist said do not spend any money. Highlights Look what happened a day after soybean export trader, Eduardo Vanin, reported: US beans are cheaper than Brazil.   Friday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 132,000 mts new crop beans to Chin

Tidbits Jason Britt, President US Commodities, notes that soybean export sales reported this past week were 8.4 million bushels and we need 2.6 million bushels each week to meet USDA’s projections of 1700 million bushels. Corn export sales were 14.1 million bushels. Jason expects USDA to raise corn exports on the July 12th S&D.   In his Friday newsletter, Market Advisor, Kevin Duling of Maupin, Oregon included this information: "One of the news items that helped break the whe

Highlights Rain moved across ND and SD yesterday and delivered heavy rain and storms to already waterlogged Minnesota, where flooding is being reported along major rivers. The Mississippi River in St Paul is expected to reach minor flood stage in the next couple days.   The heat wave in drought-stricken Mexico will move north in a few days to bring dangerously high temperatures from Arizona to the Pacific Northwest this week. Temperatures are expected to reach triple digits (

Tidbits Saturday and Sunday cease fire talks between Hamas and Israel ended with Hamas demanding Israel end the war first and then Hamas will release hostages. Israel said that will never happen. Supposedly they will meet again on Tuesday.      Rio Grande do Sul, the second largest soybean producing state in Brazil, with the weekend rains, is now experiencing its worst flooding since 1941. About half the soybeans are still in the field.   Argentina is slashing import taxes on

Tidbits The USDA will release its monthly US and world S&D today at 10 AM Mountain Time. CONAB, Brazil’s USDA, will also release its latest production estimates this morning several hours before USDA as will StatsCanada issue its grain inventory reports.   Yesterday, March cocoa was up $190 and July was up $130 per mt. Soybeans Crush and Exports Commentary In February 1972, Nixon visited Communist China and sold them massive amounts of wheat, and he did the same in Moscow thr

Highlights The US House of Representatives passed a funding bill to keep the government open until November 17th. If things go according to plan, there will not be a partial government shutdown and the USDA reports will continue as scheduled, which is positive for CBOT prices. Markets, especially grain markets, do not like uncertainty. The USDA announced Friday morning that 223,540 mts of corn were sold to Mexico; just a reminder, Mexico bought 1.6+ million mts earlier in the

Highlights China is buying crude oil that would normally go to Europe, where oil traders are still adjusting to the phase out of Russian oil. China bought 5 million barrels of mostly Kazakh crude oil, all of which a week ago was expected to go to Europe where crude demand is growing as the economy is doing better than expected. As China recovers from covid lock-down and sickness, Chinese demand for crude will grow, especially after China’s Lunar New Year at the end of Januar

Let's talk about US Grain Export Inspections and Export Sales The USA exports about 16% of its corn production, 48% of its soybeans, 52%...

The price outlook we have remains lower wheat into August with old and new corn and beans to make new highs in the May June time frame....