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Covid in Shanghai, Wheat, Export Sales, Markets & Rain Days Update 04/08/2022

Highlights


USDA will issue its monthly S&D at 11 AM CT today. It is not likely to be a market shaper. We already know the stocks as of March first and the weekly exports and crush. What we don’t know is what USDA will do with South American crop production.

Brazil’s USDA, CONAB, increased their corn production estimate 3.3 million mt to 115.6 million mt. They knocked 400,000 mt off the bean crop, down to 122.4 million mt.

Gulf corn basis was 2 to 3 cents lower April thru July. Soybean basis was a penny lower for April and May.

The US Congress voted to revoke Russia’s most favored nation trade status. That means there will be trade tariffs on Russian goods.

 

Minimal chance of rain over the next two weeks in the Southern Plains (hard red winter wheat) with the eastern areas of Oklahoma and Texas expected to get some rains in a week, but Kansas looks dry.

Australia is a major wheat exporter when they have a good crop and they completed harvest a few months ago of their largest wheat crop ever. La Nina episodes bring above normal rainfall to Aussie wheat country. Their wheat basis to CBOT wheat remains at a very large discount throughout the country as they price-in that very large crop.

 

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