BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits The Quarterly Grain Stocks Report  will be issued tomorrow at 11 AM Central. This September stocks report includes a look back at the last three marketing years to see if the current inventory is reasonable given the crop production and consumption numbers of each of those years. Once every 10 or so years, there is a huge surprise in September. However, during the past six years, USDA has made some adjustments “out-of-schedule” for past marketing years.   The most rec

Tidbits Yield report  from a NE Kansas County adjacent to Nebraska: "Yields are variable depending on farming practices. APH at 150, our yields are 200, last year 211, but if you skipped on fungicide or fertilizer, around 175."   Thanks, Ron      Crude oil:  The purpose of the meeting on Tuesday of the military top brass called by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has been described as a forum for Hegseth to explain the credo of "warrior ethos" (a warrior mentality) which includ

Tidbits Additional financial aid  to American farmers will soon be provided by the Trump administration as Agriculture Secretary Rollins said an announcement could come “perhaps in the next couple of weeks." The USDA  will lead a trade mission to Taipei, Taiwan , to expand trade opportunities for U.S. companies and boost U.S. agricultural exports. The mission takes place from September 29 to October 1 and includes 39 agribusinesses, trade organizations, and representatives fr

Highlights Yesterday’s U.S. commodity market was down on harvest pressure and China sent a record 125 military aircraft to encircle Taiwan “as a resolute punishment for Taiwan’s president's continuous fabrication of ‘Taiwan independence’ nonsense.”     The commodity markets fear that politicians may pull a Jimmy Carter stunt and “punish” China like Carter punished the Soviet Union for its Christmas Eve 1979 invasion of Afghanistan. On 4 January 1980, Carter banned U.S. grain

Tidbits Independent financial news service, Caixin Global, reported China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) announced yesterday policies for local governments to buy land and housing from property developers and promised intensive support to help localities with their hidden debts.   These highly anticipated fiscal measures are expected to complement a slate of monetary and other initiatives announced by the country’s central bank last month to boost the sluggish economic recovery.

Highlights Monday’s corn and bean trade will most likely be dominated by weekend harvest yield reports. Here is a start:   Dave in Northeast Illinois: "We have cut about a third of our beans; they are just not there, period. Yes, everyone has that one good field. We have cut more mid-40 beans than over 50; 9 to 10% moisture."   Jason Britt, President of U.S. Commodities in Kansas City: "Hearing more soybean yields that are "disappointing". In no way a disaster, but the poor f

Highlights Yesterday morning, CHS’s comments started with this paragraph: "The USDA released their long-term projections yesterday. The market seems to be reacting to the yield projections for all three of our major commodities."   Our first thought was 183.5 bushels of corn per acre yield in 2024 is not reasonable as CHS reported it, even though the market expects negative numbers from USDA this morning. Apparently, CHS used last year's report for their commentary by mistake

AG Outlook Forum USDA's 100th Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, Cultivating the Future  will take place this Thursday and Friday (Feb 15-16) at the Crystal City Gateway Marriott in Arlington, VA.   USDA describes the Outlook Forum: With over 30 sessions and 120 speakers, the forum offers a rich and diverse program covering a range of timely topics such as commodity markets, trade, technology, climate change and more.   Roger describes it as a very expensive dog and pony show

Highlights Two weeks ago, 8 out of 10 farmers we talked to said they were expecting less bushels per acre than a year ago. While they would not put a number on the beans, most were saying corn would be 20 to 30 bushels less. That translates to about 10 bushels less per acre. Half of the 1 in 10 said yields would be the same and the same number said better than 2022. Now, 6 out of 10 say corn is not as good as 2022 and the others are split between the same and better. Yield

Crop Feedback Jake has a marketing service in Wahpeton, North Dakota. He sent this information Sunday afternoon: "Hello Roger, I have received quite a few yield results from my customers. In general, we look for 45 - 50 bushel yields on soybeans as an across the farm average. Our yields so far have been anywhere from 28 - 48. I would say in general we are 5 bushel lower than most years. We are about 50% done with harvest with just the later beans left. I am projecting a d

Marketing Comment The soybean meal and soybean oil marketing years end September 30. As always, there are shipments previously bought to be shipped this marketing year, but, for any one of hundreds of reasons, the actual shipments get delayed until after the end of the marketing year, making the shipment in the next marketing year. Yesterday’s Weekly Export Sales showed net cancellations for the current marketing year for meal and oil. Those who want lower prices are making

Highlights The USDA numbers did not justify a 25 to 30¢ lower close on soybeans. The 50.1 bu yield was in line with expectations. The 220-million-bushel 2023 crop carryover is tight enough to justify $17+ beans. The USDA actually increased 2022 crop corn and soybean exports! The 800,000 acreage increase of corn acres to 94.9 million and increased harvested corn acres for grain to 87.1 million acres was about 150,000 acres more than expected. Soybean acres were raised by 100,

Tidbits USDA announced yesterday morning China bought 121,000 mts of soybeans. Corn crushed in July for ethanol was 454 million bushels, up 3% from a year ago. August corn ethanol crush needs to be 491.9 million bushels to meet USDA’s projection for the marketing year which ended August 31st. That is not likely to happen. The US Census Bureau is the final authority on US food and fiber consumption and exports. Through the first 11 months of the old crop marketing year, Ce

Jacob of Wahpeton, North Dakota reports: "Wheat harvest is rolling in the southeastern part of the Red River valley in North Dakota. I just wanted to give you a little update. Hearing a lot of 35 to 50 bushel yields with very low test weights. Typical for around here is 55 to 70 bushel yields with pretty good test weight. Proteins have been high though, so likely no premium for protein being that everybody's wheat got stressed this year." Jake has a very successful grain mar

Nitrogen Fertilizer: Get it Priced Roger has been recommending not to forward price fertilizer, including nitrogen, for more than a year. Natural gas futures have not made a new low since June 1st when it made a double bottom (trend change indicator) and from June 25th, 3 years ago. Winter is getting closer and the war in Europe is escalating. The world's longest ammonia pipeline runs from Tolyatti Azot's plant in Russia to Odessa, Ukraine. The “Tolyatti – Odessa” pipeline u

From Dave northeast Illinois: Our area is holding. We will have some tassels this week which is normal; went to dinner at a supper club in Milton Wisconsin last night, that area around Janesville, Wisconsin is some of the best dirt God Created, lots of waist to chest high corn getting ready to tassel, but beans haven't even shaded the row. Lots of beans less than a foot tall, it just seems more bean acres than what I normally see. From I 88 north is looking tough; some have c

Q&A: Safrinha Corn Roger, a few days back you mentioned corn demand was likely to improve at the current price levels. How would this time be different as opposed to mid-May when Dec Corn was in the $5 range. Also, what is the status of the late planted Brazilian Safrinha crop? Watching your daily rain days they have been dry for a while and look to be having plus 90 temps. Was the late planted crop already mature enough when this dry season came to light? I see that Brazil'