Highlights
The USDA numbers did not justify a 25 to 30¢ lower close on soybeans. The 50.1 bu yield was in line with expectations. The 220-million-bushel 2023 crop carryover is tight enough to justify $17+ beans. The USDA actually increased 2022 crop corn and soybean exports!
The 800,000 acreage increase of corn acres to 94.9 million and increased harvested corn acres for grain to 87.1 million acres was about 150,000 acres more than expected. Soybean acres were raised by 100,000 to 83.6 million planted acres and 82.8 million harvested.
The states with corn yields reduced were Minnesota, 3 bu; Nebraska, 7 bu; Illinois, 3 bu; and Iowa, 3 bu. Those are the top four corn states and we will most certainly see more yield declines in all of those states. That is simply the way USDA handles reduced production, very slowly.
December corn traded down to the year’s low made August 16th of $4.73½ and settled 3¢ above it. Today will be the best indicator if the low for the year has been made for corn and wheat.
Aside from some of the soybean numbers being a bit bearish compared to what was expected, there was nothing bearish about the soybean S&D. The US 2023 crop yield was reduced, the USA’s 2022 and 2023 crop soybean carryover was reduced and the world’s 2022 and 2023 crop carryover was reduced. How does that justify a 25¢ drop in bean prices?