BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Market Plan Utilizing Put Options Last weekend, we presented a market plan to lock in a floor price for soybeans near breakeven at no cost upfront while using puts options to capture further price gains should additional price gains become available.   A feature of that plan is it removes all stress from catching a price near or even above the high for the year.   The first step is to use a HTA to lock-in a floor price. Then place open orders to buy puts at ever higher strike

A trend direction can be bullish or up, bearish or down, or sideways. Also, longer trends have more power and contain smaller trends. Primary trend lasts about a year or more, secondary trend takes a month to several months, and a minor trend goes for days to weeks. Take a look at this 2025 corn chart illustration: However, it is easier to say what the trend was rather than to decide what phase it is now or when it is likely to change. Our friend Allen Gard with Clear Focus H

We've prepared general marketing recommendations for U.S. farmers which are absolutely necessary to know and practice. How to get better at marketing? Everyone’s marketing skills are different. You must learn and improve yours. Start by learning the marketing lingo and practice. Find a friend to talk about markets until the lingo becomes comfortable in conversation. Consider working with an adviser or service that will help you learn. Let’s cover basic marketing techniques be

Tidbits Harvest report:  From Central Ohio, double crop soybeans made 56 bushels after 12 tons of chopped triticale. Unlike most of the Eastern Corn Belt, this field had a 3 inch rain on the first day of August and another 1.5 inches through the first week of September.     Crude oil:  The OPEC+ members met yesterday to decide if they should increase daily production in November by 137,000 or 548,000 barrels per day or some amount in between. Saudi Arabia wanted a big increas

Tidbits Wheat export:  This wheat marketing year began 1 June. Total export wheat sales for this marketing year stand at 6.5 million mts, up from 5 million mts last year at this point. By wheat class, HRW sales are 2.6 million mts, up from 1.1 million last year, white wheat at 1.3 million mts, up from 1.2 million last year, and SRW export sales at 857,000 mts, up from 804,000 mts last year.   Corn:  A South Dakota client said yesterday he has 21 fields of corn and 16 of them

Tidbits Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. President Trump expressed hope that their White House summit yesterday with European leaders could eventually result in trilateral talks with President Putin over ending Russia’s war on Ukraine. Meanwhile, the war continues with no end in sight. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 124,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown. Pesticides:  The Make America Healthy Again Commission expects to recommend no action

Tidbits Trump and Putin  talked for 2 hours and 45 minutes yesterday afternoon in Alaska. After the meeting, they held a press conference where they said there was no deal made, but a lot of progress was made. Trump said he will contact European leaders and Ukraine’s President Zelensky to fully brief them on the details discussed, there would be preparations for a three side meeting between Ukraine, Russia and the United States, and the Ukraine should make a deal. Trump said

Tidbits Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 125,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown. Relationship of the U.S. dollar exchange rate and grain prices Conventional wisdom is the exchange rate of the dollar is a major factor in the sale of U.S. products to foreign buyers and it most certainly is. For example, Japan used to be the number one importer of U.S. agricultural products for decades before the emergence of China, Mexico, and Canada as big buyers, but Japan is

Q: What are indications the soybean basis will firm? Basis will firm as demand increases and/or available supply decreases. What are the...

Tidbits President Trump said Friday evening he increased tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%.  Head-and-Shoulders Formation A head-and-shoulders  formation is a technical indicator of a trend change from up to sideways or down. Such formations are formed on charts where one vertical line (a bar) represents the trading range for one day or one week. During a few weeks multiple bars form a pattern that resembles a head above a left and right shoulder. Usually

Tidbits The National Weather Service predicts the Eastern Corn Belt  will finally get some dry weather in the next two weeks. Perhaps all the corn will get planted in Indiana and Ohio after all. Tractors were in the West Central Ohio fields yesterday, but the soil is really too wet for a good crop growth. Compaction will be a problem in the Eastern Corn Belt. Aluísio Pancracio is the owner of Sastra Consultoria based in the municipality of Rio Verde, in the state of Goiás, Br

Tidbits Trump and Putin  have a phone call scheduled for today. Moscow is 8 hours ahead of Central Time.   On 10 November 2023, Moody’s changed its outlook on the U.S. credit rating  from “stable” to “negative,” signaling a potential future downgrade. Last week, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating for the first time in history, citing the increase of U.S. government debt; rating downgraded from AAA to AA1 with negative outlook.   Palm oil  is the world’s leading vegetable

By Roger Wright. Sent to Wright on the Market Clients 9 February 2025 The big spec funds (aka managed money) have bought a very large...

Tidbits Agriculture futures markets will not trade until tomorrow evening at normal times. Crude oil will trade normal hours this evening...

Tidbits Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in Panama  and met with the President yesterday. Rubio presented him with an ultimatum regarding the Panama Canal: President Trump has determined that “The current position of influence and control of the Chinese Communist Party over the Panama Canal area is a threat to the canal,” according to State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce.   “Absent immediate changes regarding Chinese influence, the US will take measures necessary to pr

Ag market futures will resume trading at normal time this evening. Crude oil began trading as its usual time last evening, namely 5 PM Central, and will trade today until its normal close at 4 PM Central.   Wayne Bacon is traveling, so there will be no world FOB grain price and ocean freight rate report this week. Tidbits Much of Argentina’s crop areas received between three and four tenths (~10 mm) on Saturday.     Sunday morning weather update for crop areas of Argentina: "

Highlights William Edwards Deming was born in 1900 in Sioux City, Iowa , was raised in the community of Polk City, Iowa , on his...

A German Lesson In the days before paper currency, there were very few money supply problems. As populations grew and society shifted...

Carryover and S&D The three most important factors in governing the future price direction of a given commodity are carryover, carryover, carryover. What is the current carryover, aka ending stocks?  Is it more than enough to last until the next crop is harvested? If not, the price will rise to make sure the world does not run out of that commodity. That is the job of the market; to make sure we never run out of a commodity. Higher prices require users to reduce consumption b

Jon Scheve with weekly market commentary made on September 6, 2024 With harvest nearly in full swing across the US, many farmers are...