BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Marketing year change The wheat, oats and barley marketing years begin June 1. The canola and flaxseed marketing years begin July 1. The...

Marketing Tool Analysis Fourteen weeks ago, we proposed several marketing tool alternatives to leaving corn in the bin. It was more for educational purposes than anything, but for those of you who felt you had to do something in January, we proposed these alternative tools. The maximum risk was set at 20¢ a bushel, meaning, if any of these tools lost 20¢, the position would be liquidated.   May options were two of the alternative options to leaving corn in the bin. The expira

Highlights Yesterday afternoon US time, Iran launched hundreds of drones and then missiles aimed at Israel. Russia also attacked Ukraine’s northeast city of Kharkiv with the same Iranian-made Shahed drones yesterday afternoon. US intelligence believes Iran has as many as 500 drones and missiles to launch from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. US and British air forces participated in neutralizing threats before entering Israeli airspace. Minor damage sustained at an Isra

Carbon Cycle, Credits & Intensity Sharon asked Roger to share his thoughts on carbon credits.   From the time I was in elementary science class through soil science courses at Colorado State and Ohio State, I was taught there is a carbon cycle. Every living thing contains carbon. Organic matter is anything that is alive or was alive.   Animals and humans release carbon into the atmosphere when they exhale their breath and pass gas. By the way, there were more buffalo passing

Tidbits World urea prices this past week were down ~4%, despite the Indian tender. Phosphate prices were mostly unchanged except Single Super Phosphate 20% (SSP) was a bit stronger. MOP prices were mostly steady to up ~3% at around $310 per mt CFR Brazil (delivered to the ports).   Brazil’s farmers are waiting to decide what fertilizer and seeds to purchase for the new crop growing season. Weather and prices are out of whack.   Our clients in the Southeast USA are saying cott

Tidbits March U.S. manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers index) was better than expected at 52.5, services PMI was below expectation at 51.7, values above 50 imply expansion. Existing home sales were better than expected at 4.38 million. Jobless claims at 210k were less than expected.   Iowa is facing drought for the 4th year in a row. Today's drought monitor showed at least abnormally dry conditions with 23% for corn and 19% for beans. Seasonal outlooks, released by NOAA to

Planting Intentions Survey At noon Eastern Time on Thursday, 28 March, the USDA will issue results of its survey of farmers planting intentions for corn, beans and spring wheat as well as the inventory of grains and oilseeds on hand as of March 1st. So, both new and old crops will get a major dose of information that could move the market sharply up or down.   CBOT will be closed on Good Friday, March 29. No markets Thursday evening. Trade resumes normal evening session on Ea

Tidbits The Director of Russian Foreign Intelligence Service says France is preparing to deploy 2,000 troops to Ukraine to help fight Russia. France’s President Macron, earlier this month, suggested NATO troops could support Kyiv forces. He has not ruled out the suggestion of French infantry intervention.   The Financial Times reports that the EU is set to place a 95 euro per mt tariff on grain imports from Russia and Belarus. EU imports of Russian grain hit a record 4 mil mt

Tidbits President Putin re-elected President of Russia yesterday with 87.3% of the vote.     The European Union announced yesterday a 7.4 billion euro ($8 billion) aid package for Egypt as concerns mount that economic pressure and conflicts in neighboring countries could drive more migrants to European shores. The aid package includes both grants and loans over the next three years. Marketing Tools You Need to Use: HTA Hedge to Arrive Contracts:  HTA contracts lock-in the fut

Tidbits CBOT markets will not open until Monday evening. NOAA released its monthly 3-month long-range outlook for the US, joining several private services predicting warmer temperatures for the summer and potential dryness for the Western Corn Belt.     Baker-Hughes reported there were 621 oil and gas drilling rigs in operation last week in the USA, 2 less than the previous week and 139 less than a year ago. Canada had 234 rigs drilling, 2 more than the previous week, but 14

Tidbits The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has 12 members: the 7 members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. The FOMC will begin a 2-day meeting today to decide if they should change the Fed’s discount rate, which determines the interest rate for the US economy. No interest rate change is expected th

Tidbits Agroconsult sees Brazil’s bean crop at 153.8 mil mts, down from 158.8 in December (USDA 157).   Panama Canal officials announced they will reduce the daily number of vessels allowed to transit the 50 mile long canal to 24, down from the average of 36 this time last year.   Each vessel requires an average of 50 million gallons of fresh water from Gatun Lake on the high ground to feed locks on both sides of the Continental Divide.   The Canal opened in 1914 with two set

Friend or Foe: Marketing Example A farmer produced 200,000 bu of corn in 2023. Then he delivered 100,000 bushels of cash corn in September, he sold it on Sept 29th at $5.07, with a +30¢ basis.   He transferred $35,000 of his new crop corn income to his futures account.   Bought 100,000 bushels of December 2023 corn futures at $4.77 on the open (opening of trading day) on Oct. 2nd.    On October 19th, Dec corn traded above $5.00 for the first time in two months. With $5.00 bei

Nick and I (Eugene) began learning about the commodities market two years ago with Roger’s and Olga's help. Previously, we had some...

Highlights The Ukrainian army has launched a missile strike on the port of Feodosia in Crimea and claims to have destroyed a Russian landing ship, but reliable details of the aftermath, including casualties, have yet to emerge. This came just after Russia claimed full control of the village of Maryinka, an important strategic point for which battles have been fought since the spring of 2022.   Between midnight last Tuesday and midnight yesterday, Rondonópolis received a total

Highlights Seasonal Marketing Roger has very painfully developed, over the decades, progressively more respect for seasonal price trends....

Originally written by Roger Wright for FarmProgress.com in September 2021 Here is why you need to be a basis seller and a futures seller,...

Crop Feedbacks Bill in North Central Kentucky called Roger yesterday shortly after noon to let us know that ADM at Silver Grove, KY, across the Ohio River from Cincinnati, pushed (firmed) their soybean bid to $13.00 cash, which was 13¢ firmer than their posted offer. Dave in Northeast Illinois has cut 2200 acres of beans which averaged 55 bu, down 7 bushels from the past two year average. Thanks, Dave. Matt in Northwest/Central Ohio harvested 15 tons of cereal rye forage la

Tidbits Chris farms near Andrew, in Central Alberta, Canada northeast of Edmonton. He reported Friday morning: "Good morning, Roger, We finished our spring wheat harvest last night. I figure we averaged about 92 bushels an acre." Hard Red Spring Wheat harvest is nearly complete and this year’s crop currently grades at U.S. No. 1 Northern Spring Wheat. Northern Durum is more than 75% harvested and it is grading as U.S. No. 1 Hard Amber Durum. Black Sea grain market guru, And

Highlights The USDA numbers did not justify a 25 to 30¢ lower close on soybeans. The 50.1 bu yield was in line with expectations. The 220-million-bushel 2023 crop carryover is tight enough to justify $17+ beans. The USDA actually increased 2022 crop corn and soybean exports! The 800,000 acreage increase of corn acres to 94.9 million and increased harvested corn acres for grain to 87.1 million acres was about 150,000 acres more than expected. Soybean acres were raised by 100,