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Tidbits, Grain Corridor, Nitrogen Fertilizer Pricing, ENSO, Markets & Rain Days Update 7/19/23

Nitrogen Fertilizer: Get it Priced

Roger has been recommending not to forward price fertilizer, including nitrogen, for more than a year. Natural gas futures have not made a new low since June 1st when it made a double bottom (trend change indicator) and from June 25th, 3 years ago. Winter is getting closer and the war in Europe is escalating.

The world's longest ammonia pipeline runs from Tolyatti Azot's plant in Russia to Odessa, Ukraine. The “Tolyatti – Odessa” pipeline used to carry 3 million mts of ammonia per year 1,530 miles (2,500 km) to load on ships and to provide nitrogen fertilizer to the world. It has been shut down since the early days of the war. One of the conditions Russia stipulated to renew the grain export deal was that the Tolyatti – Odessa pipeline be reopened. Ukraine refused to allow Russian ammonia to flow across its land.

Now that Russia has ended its cooperation on the grain export corridor, Odessa port is being attacked by drones and missiles, and Ukraine’s leadership think they are rulers of the world with all the money and material flowing to them, there is little to no chance we will see Russian ammonia coming into the world marketplace from Odessa before next spring.

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