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Tidbits, Safrinha Corn, Yields, ENSO, Markets & Rain Days Update 7/6/23

Q&A: Safrinha Corn


Roger, a few days back you mentioned corn demand was likely to improve at the current price levels. How would this time be different as opposed to mid-May when Dec Corn was in the $5 range.

Also, what is the status of the late planted Brazilian Safrinha crop? Watching your daily rain days they have been dry for a while and look to be having plus 90 temps. Was the late planted crop already mature enough when this dry season came to light? I see that Brazil's projections keep increasing. Simmy

In mid-May, it was dry but plenty of time for the rains to come. Corn users were most certainly not concerned about any more than necessary to keep the animals fed and the mill running. Now, things are a bit dicey. Yea, the rains came but too late to eliminate the fear of some yield loss and not enough rain yet to ensure no more yield declines. This week, there are some purchases of old crop corn being bought for future use, even into the new crop year. It appears farmers have shut the corn bin doors and it will take a lot of money or rain to get farmers to re-open these doors.

Other than the production estimates, everything we see indicates the safrinha crop has been losing yield. Even farmers are saying yields are less than expected. The predicted rain days for Rondonópolis in Mato Grosso May 10th to June 30th were slightly fewer than a year ago and Campo Grande in Mato Grosso do Sul has even fewer than Rondonópolis since May 10th. Throw-in the 2023 crop was planted 20 to 30 days later than the previous year’s crop, meaning its maturity was 20 to 30 days less when the rains stop, it simply defies logic this safrinha crop is bigger than last year’s.

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