BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights The U.S. and China trade agreement details announced yesterday morning: A 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Both Countries dropped their tariff rates by 115 percent points. The U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reduced from 145% to 30%. China’s tariffs on U.S. goods will be 10%, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 91% removed. China removed all non-tariff countermeasures (all “lame” excuses like quotas, phyto-sanitary restrictions, etc.) China sent their deputy minist

The numbers were: Friendly to Bullish Corn Friendly Soybeans Negative U.S. Wheat    40 Minutes After the Report: July Corn +4 Dec corn +3...

Tidbits The day before yesterday’s trade talk between China  and the U.S. were to begin, President Trump said reducing the tariff  to 80% on Chinese goods "seems right," suggesting an alternative to the current 145% tariff. The meeting took place in Geneva as scheduled yesterday, but neither side made any comment about the discussion other than they will meet again today. Saturday's talks began in the morning and continued into the evening. It is generally considered a positi

Highlights The highly respected London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG, which bought Refinitiv, formerly the Financial and Risk business of Thomson Reuters) predicts U.S. corn acres at 94.3 million (USDA 95.3). Stats Canada reported corn for grain stocks as of 31 March 2025, were down 13% from a year ago at 7.197 million mt. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 40,000 mts of old crop corn and 165,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico 115,000 mts of old crop corn to unkn

Highlights The biggest news piece from yesterday’s S&D was the USDA increased corn exports by 100 million bushels. As many expected, the corn for feed was reduced by 25 million bushels, so the carryout was reduced by 75 million bushels, which took the carryout from a 37 day supply to a 35 day supply. The market expected a 30 million bushel reduction in the corn carryout. USDA did not change any of the corn or soybean production numbers for Brazil, Argentina, or Paraguay. Stud

The numbers were: Friendly to Bullish Corn Friendly Soybeans Negative U.S. Wheat  Neutral World Wheat    20 Minutes After the Report: May...

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 240,000 mts of old crop corn to Spain. In February, U.S. agricultural trade deficit showed slight improvement, with exports decreasing to $13.59 billion (a drop of $830 million from January) and imports falling more sharply to $17.86 billion (down $2.81 billion). This reduction narrowed the monthly trade deficit to $4.27 billion, an improvement from January's record deficit of $6.25 billion. USDA projects 2025 financia

Tidbits Today is when President Trump said his tariffs on various imported products from multiple countries will be announced. The market has probably overestimated the impact of these tariffs.     Yesterday, the USDA reported total crush for February after the CBOT closed. The corn crush was 465 million bushels, down 6% from a year ago; corn crushed for ethanol was 421 million bushels, down 5%. The soybean crush was 189 million bushels, 2% less than a year ago. The canola cr

The reports were: Neutral to Friendly Old Crop Corn Negative New Crop Corn Neutral Soybeans Friendly Wheat 20 Minutes After the Report:...

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale  of 218,604 mts of old crop corn to unknown and 20,000 mts of old crop soybean oil to unknown.   Karen Braun , Global Ag Analyst and Reporter for Reuters News Service reported the following on Thursday: "According to its own statistics agency, CONAB, Brazil’s corn supplies, as of a few weeks ago, hit the lowest level in at least 25 years.   But the USDA does not expect a scenario like that to unfold until early next year.

Highlights The USDA could have and should have increased corn exports and ethanol use on yesterday’s S&D, but it did not, as we predicted. If you noted our summary chart of weekly exports inspections we send you every Tuesday, yesterday’s chart showed you the USDA projects corn exports this marketing year to be 6.9% more than a year ago, but with half the marketing year still ahead of us, corn exports are running 38% ahead of year ago. We know corn exports will slow down in t

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Friendly Soybeans Negative Wheat     10 Minutes After the Report: May Corn +1.5 Dec corn -0.25 May beans...

Tidbits The price of April urea futures  at NOLA has declined $22 per ton since 12 February.      AgFeeds.com/br  reports: "After much complaint and pressure from the productive sector, the federal government found a way to unlock the financing of the 2024/2025 Safra Plan with subsidized credit lines which had been closed Thursday, 20 February. Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced late Friday, 21 February, the opening of an extraordinary credit line of R$4 bill

Highlights The USDA made no changes on the domestic corn and soybean S&D  other than increasing the average price expected to be paid to...

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Friendly Soybeans Slightly Friendly Wheat     10 Minutes After the Report: March Corn -1 March beans -2...

Brooke Rollins is President Trump's pick to lead USDA. She is 52 years old, grew up on a Texas farm, graduated with honors from Texas A&M with a B.S. in Agriculture Development. She was the first woman to be elected A&M student body president and served as the speaker pro tempore of the A&M Student Senate, the chair of the Texas A&M Judicial Court, as a Fish Camp counselor, and was Cotton Bowl Classic Queen. In 2007, Rollins became the first female speaker at the College Stat

Highlights The market reaction to the USDA numbers was bullish for corn and beans. Corn should have been stronger than it was given as the 2024 corn yield was reduced 3.8 bushels per acre.      The USDA pretty much admitted they do not know what they are doing or that they had been lying to us about the corn and soybean inventory.   USDA added 200,000 acres of corn harvested, but cut the yield by a whopping 3.8 bushels to 179.3. The lowest trade yield guess was 181.3.   The b

The numbers were: Bullish Corn Bullish Soybeans Neutral Wheat     45 Minutes After the Report: March Corn +13 January beans +23 March...

Market Comment Today at 11 AM Central, the USDA will release its January U.S. and World S&D, the Quarterly Grain Inventory Report for US commodities as of 1 December 2024 and U.S. winter wheat actual plantings. The market expects U.S. 2024 corn yield to be reduced by a half bushel and the soybean bean yield reduced by a tenth of a bushel. Corn carryover might be decreased due to higher ethanol usage and lower production. Soy oil exports will likely see an increase.   We expec

Highlights The USDA S&D numbers released yesterday were as neutral as can be for soybeans and wheat, but bullish for corn. When Roger saw the corn numbers, he told Olga corn should be up 10 to 15 cents higher. Corn was up 4 when the report was released and it was 5 to 6 higher for the first 15 minutes after the report was released. Late in the trading session, March corn did trade to $4.50 yesterday and settled at $4.49, up 7¼. March corn traded to $4.52¼ on 2 October after m