BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Russia was selling oil at just $50 a barrel to India and China. Now that India has a waiver to buy Russian gas and oil, Russia is telling India it will not give any more discounts. Russia is charging India $90 a barrel according to energy expert Amos Hochstein. Many producers of crude oil like to lock in a profitable price for future production when possible. Most producers know within a few bucks what their cost of production will be for the year ahead because most

Tidbits U.S. and Chinese trade officials will meet in Paris tomorrow and Monday to lay the groundwork for the summit between President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. Bloomberg reports topics of discussion include tariffs, fentanyl, Taiwan, and soybean purchases. Crude oil: Saudi Arabia is flanked by the Red Sea on the west and the Persian Gulf on the east, north of Strait of Hormuz. Satellites that track ship transponders show a massive number of vessels are now he

Tidbits 8 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, 5 more than the previous day, as S&P Global reported. Two of the ships were sanctioned vessels loaded with Iranian natural gas. Iran's new leader made his first statements, calling for national unity and stating that the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed. Brazilian soybeans were having trouble getting phyto-sanitary certificates, as we mentioned yesterday. Cargill announced later yesterday it had suspended soyb

Written 22 April 2022 In lesson 1, I wrote about clients who bought September wheat puts with September wheat futures right at $11.00. People were paying 60¢ per bushel for the right to sell September wheat futures at $10.00 and 20¢ for the right to sell September wheat at $9.00. Why would anybody pay so much money for the right to sell September wheat $1 and $2 below the current price? Why not just sell the September wheat futures at $11.00 and not spend $2,943.75 for the ri

Tidbits Crude Oil: Two tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were attacked within the territorial waters of Iraq last evening, causing both to catch fire in the Persian Gulf. A total of 25 crew members onboard the vessels have been evacuated so far by authorities in Iraq. Despite Donald Trump's statements, the U.S. refuses to escort civilian ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing the high risk of attacks, Reuters reports. The International Energy Agency (IEA) approved yesterday

Tidbits S&D: As expected, the USDA did not make any significant changes to the U.S. balance sheets, as ending stocks of corn, soybeans, and wheat remained unchanged. Corn global inventories rose nearly 3 million mts; production rose 1.7 million mts in Ukraine and 1 million mts in Brazil, while down 1 million mts in Argentina. The average U.S. Farm price for 2025/26 at $4.10 and for 2026/27 it was pegged at $4.20 in February.

Last week, (third week in April 2022), we recommended our clients purchase September Soft Red Winter Wheat Put Options and most likely within the next two and half months, we will be recommending the purchase of December corn puts and November soybeans puts. We will present a series of educational explanations about put options. Even though most of you do not grow wheat, you need to understand how put options work and what they can do for you. The wheat market is “ripe” for

Tidbits How will the markets react to the attack on Iran? Logically, one would expect crude oil to trade higher. There will be fools buying crude oil futures on the opening this evening. They don't realize traders have already Bought the Rumor (U.S. will attack Iran) and those same traders Will Sell the Fact (U.S. did attack Iran). The only reason crude oil would maintain its $12 gain since mid-December is if the insurance companies refuse to insure ships sailing to and from

Tidbits First notice day for March futures is this coming Friday. Panama has reassigned control of two key ports from Chinese operator CK Hutchinson to two European operators after nearly three decades in Chinese hands. CK Hutchison said Panama's decision to cancel key port contracts and grant temporary licences to Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping was “unlawful” as it considers national and international legal action against Panama and third parties. U.S. President Donald Tr

Tidbits Iran: The ongoing protests in Iran escalated the past two days. The Iranian government cut internet access and telephone service in the major cities on Thursday. The demonstrations now span all 31 Iranian provinces. The protests began as a protest against an economy in freefall but soon broadened to demand the overthrow of the government. Rebels report they have complete control of two major Iranian cities. The Human Rights Activist News Agency, which tallies only vic

Tidbits

Tidbits Carryover, aka carryout, is the amount of old crop grain or oilseed that was not used during the marketing year. The job of the market is to make sure we never run out of food or fiber during every marketing year. When necessary, the market rations all commodities by raising the price so users will use less. USDA reports the carryovers in terms of millions of bushels for the domestic Supply and Demand (S&D) and in terms of million metric tons (mts) for the world S

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 330,000 mts of old crop beans to China. The U.S. administration will soon announce details of payments to farmers hurt by low crop prices and trade disputes, Secretary Rollins said yesterday. She also said that the USDA will be making an announcement about "structural changes" to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, also known as food stamps, the week after Thanksgiving. She has said all SNAP recip

Tidbits November USDA S&D report will be released this Friday. A Reuters' survey shows traders expect lower U.S. corn and soybean production. The average corn production is estimated at 16.557 billion bushels, down 257 million from September. The average yield is expected to slip from 186.7 to 184 bpa, while still a record. Despite the lower production, U.S. ending stocks are expected to rise slightly to 2.136 billion bushels due to higher carry-in stocks from last year’s cro

Tidbits U.S. harvest of soybeans was estimated 96% complete by a Reuters poll (last week 91%) and corn 92% complete (last week 83%). Winter wheat planting was about 95% complete, up from 91% last week, and 52% of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, unchanged from last week. U.S. imports of containerized goods declined 7.5% year-over-year in October, with shipments from China dropping 16.3% as importers tempered expectations amid evolving tariff policies. China’

Tidbits Inflation: Two weeks ago, the U.S. inflation rate for the past 12 months was reported to be 3%, way above the Federal Reserve’s stated goal of 2%. Three days later, the Fed reduced the Fed Fund Rate. Chairman Jerome Powell said, “Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal." In August 1971, the U.S. annual inflation rate reached an "intolerable" 3% and all financial “experts” pr

Market Plan Utilizing Put Options Last weekend, we presented a market plan to lock in a floor price for soybeans near breakeven at no cost upfront while using puts options to capture further price gains should additional price gains become available. A feature of that plan is it removes all stress from catching a price near or even above the high for the year. The first step is to use a HTA to lock-in a floor price. Then place open orders to buy puts at ever higher strike

Tidbits Tariffs: Yesterday, President Trump signed trade deals with Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia. Tariffs on most of their exports to the U.S. will remain at 19%. Thailand and Malaysia will increase exports of rare earth minerals to the U.S. while allowing increased access of U.S. products to all three countries' markets. At the annual summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, President Lula of Brazil and Trump talked for nearly an hour yesterday and indicat

Tidbits Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. President Trump expressed hope that their White House summit yesterday with European leaders could eventually result in trilateral talks with President Putin over ending Russia’s war on Ukraine. Meanwhile, the war continues with no end in sight. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 124,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown. Pesticides: The Make America Healthy Again Commission expects to recommend no actions

Tidbits Russia-Ukraine: On the surface, Trump’s meeting with President Putin was a total failure. Trump had said he wanted a cease fire in Russia’s war with Ukraine and a framework for a lasting peace. The culture of Eastern Europe and a lack of a Ukrainian representative made Trump’s goals highly unlikely. The anti-Trumper news media is jumping all over this failure. However, Trump and Putin showed friendliness and mutual respect at their press conference. Trump was asked to