BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has 12 members: the 7 members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. The FOMC will begin a 2-day meeting today to decide if they should change the Fed’s discount rate, which determines the interest rate for the US economy. No interest rate change is expected th

Tidbits A Farm Futures survey of 825 growers resulted in them predicting US farmers will plant: 92.798 million acres of corn, 94.6 mil in 2023 84.953 million acres of soybeans, 83.6 mil. in 2023 47.994 million acres of wheat, 49.6 mil in 2023   Dr. Cordonnier left unchanged his corn production estimate for Brazil at 115 mil mts. He also kept his Argentine corn estimate steady at 56 mil mts, with 23% of the crop pollinating; 46% rated good or excellent.   The good doctor left

Highlights OPEC has postponed their Sunday meeting to consider production cuts. That news caused crude oil to sell-off over $3 yesterday before recovering nicely by the close, but weaker over night.   Edurado Vanin, an export grain and soybean manager in Brazil reported yesterday China continues to buy US soybeans. He said this week China is looking to buy 8-10 shiploads (~400,000 to 500,000 mts) of US soybeans. Yesterday, brokers in various Asian countries were asking about

Highlights OPEC members, Nigeria and Iran, have been cheating on their crude oil quota the past two months while other OPEC members did maintain reduced production. OPEC produced more crude in August than they did in July, but OPEC leaders (aka Saudi Arabia) swept that under the rug to keep prices on an upward trajectory. However, after the same two “villians” over produced again in September, the Saudis “blew the whistle” yesterday and crude oil prices slumped $2 and settled

Highlights Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results Thursday: Drought Monitor: % change of crop area in drought Corn +1, Cotton +8, Sorghum +1, Soybean 0, Spring Wheat 0, Winter Wheat +1

Written yesterday morning: "Roger, I am in one of the dry pockets of NE Iowa (about 45 minutes north of Waterloo). I have had a little over an inch of rain since the 4th of July. Yesterday, when I was taking a load of beans to Shell Rock, I saw 3 choppers taking corn. I don't ever remember seeing choppers rolling by Aug 17. I walked some fields last night and pollination was good but seed depth is lacking. Several farmers I talked to have speculated we will have lower test we

Highlights Ukraine and Russia attacks on each other early Wednesday were not as aggressive as the previous two days which allowed some barges on the Danube to be loaded with Ukrainian grain. Two days ago, the railroads to the Danube River loading terminals were destroyed. If so, there will not be many barges loaded any time soon. Three weeks into the Russian wheat harvest, Black Sea grain guru Andrey Sizov reports only 14% of the wheat areas had been harvested as persistent

Highlights A daily “key reversal” higher is created when a price makes a new low for the move and then closes higher than the previous day’s high. It is a very bullish technical indicator. If the day’s opening trade price is higher than the previous day’s settlement before making the new low that day, it is even more bullish. A weekly “key reversal” higher is created when a price makes a new low for the move and then closes higher than the previous week’s high. If the week’s

Tidbits The Corn Belt will see progressively warmer and drier weather into the end of July moving west to east. Nasty hail in Nebraska and Kansas Sunday. The ethanol plant at Onida, South Dakota had a major fire yesterday shortly after noon. Corn in China traded $9.60 per bushel Friday. Weekly crop condition report today. You can see the full report a few minutes after 3 PM Central today at www.grainstats.com USDA monthly S&D will be issued Wednesday 11 AM Central. Courag

Highlights Kevin Duling, market advisor and futures broker in Maupin, Oregon (kdinvestors@gmail.com and phone 541 980 4554) said: "The...

Highlights The April CPI (inflation at the retail level) shows the US inflation rate the past 12 months was 4.9%, below the expected 5.0%. This is the 10th consecutive monthly drop in the US inflation rate. We get the PPI (inflation at wholesale level) tomorrow. Note the chart of US inflation rate since 2005: We are 9 days into the CBOT May deliveries. There has not been any corn delivered on a May futures contract, not one. That is bullish, Folks, very bullish! USDA will is

Highlights The USDA announced yesterday morning the cancellation of 272,000 mts of old crop corn to China. That news and better than expected planting progress, four days without a lower settlement, and a good weather forecast is why corn and beans were so weak yesterday. Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN will meet in Istanbul today and tomorrow to discuss the grain corridor deal. CPI (measures inflation at the retail level) will be released this morning at 7:30 Central.

Highlights A giant ash cloud from a volcano in Eastern Russia has caused massive disruptions in air traffic into Alaska and blanketed a Peninsula in Russia. Ash from the Shiveluch volcano on Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula spewed as high as 20 kilometers (12.5 miles) and laid an 8-inch layer of dust on the land down wind. Dozens of flights in and out of Alaska have been cancelled. The eruption began Tuesday, the first one since Shiveluch erupted in 2007. Given the jet stream of

Highlights Farm Futures 2023 acreage survey released Friday favors beans over corn: Corn: 87.677 million (88.579 last year, USDA Outlook: 91.0) Soybean: 89.620 (87.45 last year, USDA Outlook: 87.5) All wheat: 45.744 (45.738 last year, USDA Outlook 49.5) Winter wheat: 34.417 (33.271 last year) Spring wheat: 10.152 (10.835 last year) Durum wheat: 1.175 million (1.632 last year) Cotton NA (13.76 last year) Sorghum NA (6.3 last year) Barley NA (2.945 last year) Oa

Highlights After trashing the markets yesterday afternoon when she said there would be no government guarantee on 100% of bank deposits, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, had a different story Thursday when it came to the ongoing debate over insuring bank deposits beyond the $250,000 limit. In prepared remarks to a House committee, Yellen repeated that the Biden administration’s actions tied to recent banking meltdowns were “taken to ensure that Americans’ deposits are saf

Highlights Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify today and tomorrow before a congressional committee. The market expects him to affirm the Fed Fund rate will peak 5½ to 6% by September to November. The monthly USDA S&D will be issued tomorrow at 11 AM Central Time. The expectations are:

Highlights China's February manufacturing PMI was expected to be 50.5, but it came in at 52.6 this morning, the highest since April 2012... eleven years, Folks! The non-manufacturing PMI was highest since March 2021. An expanding Chinese economy means more crude oil, soybeans, corn, pork and beef. Many of you are looking for a respected market advisor who will tell you to sell your corn, wheat, and beans. We are not going to do it, so Bill Crowder is your man. Bill is a cot

We have a communication problem when it comes options. With rare exception, when trading options on futures and stocks, people say they...

Highlights Mexico has officially scrapped the ban on GMO corn imports for animal feed and industrial use that was due to start in January. Mexico still plans to prohibit glyphosate and GMO corn for human consumption. That human consumption corn has never been a sizable percent of their corn imports. President Biden Administration said yesterday morning another 26 million barrels will be released from Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as Russia cuts production. That and the C

Highlights The Nord Stream Pipeline is a natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany running through the Baltic Sea, financed by Russia’s Gazprom and several European energy companies. A Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, Seymour Hersh, reported last Wednesday that the Biden Administration decided to damage the pipeline to prevent Russia from boosting its income while reducing the dependence of Western Europe on inexpensive Russian gas. Now, four days later, it appears that