Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Highlights The U.S. and China trade agreement details announced yesterday morning: A 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Both Countries dropped their tariff rates by 115 percent points. The U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reduced from 145% to 30%. China’s tariffs on U.S. goods will be 10%, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 91% removed. China removed all non-tariff countermeasures (all “lame” excuses like quotas, phyto-sanitary restrictions, etc.) China sent their deputy minist

Tidbits There were two major factors that crushed the corn market yesterday: A weather forecast which will allow most of the nation’s remaining 60% corn acres to be planted in the next 10 days and the market’s conclusion that Brazil’s safrinha crop will be a bin buster because April rainfall was more than it was last year. The market ignored that the dry season has started for the safrinha corn and 40% of it was planted after the ideal planting window closed on 22 February an

Tidbits Today is the day to liquidate all May long futures positions and basis contracts to avoid any chance of delivery on May futures. Both classes of winter wheat made new contract lows in the new crop contracts yesterday. New crop spring wheat traded within 5¢ of its contract low and settled 8¢ above the 28 March low. Wheat used to trade inversely of the dollar index, but not this spring. The dollar index is down 11% from its 13 January high and just 1% above its low ma

Tidbits China made several announcements yesterday which show they are going to advance their effort to counter the U.S. trade actions that are forcing China to the negotiation table. China will convene an informal U.N. Security Council meeting on April 23 to accuse Washington of bullying and weaponizing tariffs, according to a document that outlines the key elements of a proposed project, initiative, or program at the United Nations. All 193 U.N. members are invited to atten

Tidbits The markets will be closed on 18 April, Good Friday. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of old crop corn to Japan. USDA's second Crop Progress report had spring wheat now at 7% planted, corn at 4%, soybean at 2%. Winter wheat conditions fell slightly to 47% good or excellent. The USDA on Monday said it had canceled a $3 billion program for climate-smart farming projects after a review found it did not align with the priorities of the Trump a

Highlights On 2 April, Trump applied an additional 34% reciprocal tariffs on China added to the existing 20% duties already applied to Chinese imports. Together, they bring the total tariff rate to 54%, affecting nearly $600 billion in annual trade to combat currency manipulation, dumping (selling below the cost of production) of industrial products, and a host of other lesser offenses. China responded over the weekend with a series of countermeasures, including tighter expor

Highlights Often we have written and said: “The expectation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of that event.” Yesterday’s market action demonstrated that axiom. For two months, the endless talk has been about many more corn acres and fewer bean acres. That is exactly what the USDA reported. Corn acres were up 5% from 2024, while soybean area was 4% lower. Corn closed higher in most contracts yesterday and beans were down 8 to 9¢.

Highlights Pro Farmer released their U.S. planting projections on Friday. They expect 3.5% more corn acres at 93.75 million acres and a 2.4% decrease in soybean acres to 85 million. Spring wheat acres are expected to be down while durum wheat may see a slight increase in plantings. They see total wheat at 45.5 million acres, down 1.5% from last year. Some other surveys showed estimates about 95.4 million of corn and 82.75 million of soybeans. The CHS outlook for U.S. spring w

Tidbits President Trump and President Putin are scheduled to have a phone conversation this morning regarding the negotiations of a ceasefire and possibly the end to the Ukraine/Russia war. The discussion will be centered on the allocation of assets, primarily of land and power plants that must be settled before a lasting peace can be maintained. Mark Carney was sworn in as the first new Canadian prime minister in nine years on Friday. He visited the UK and France as his firs

Highlights At 11 AM Central Time, the USDA will release its March S&D. It will be neutral for the market at the worst. Despite all the tariff rhetoric yesterday, the big news was the corn weekly export inspections. CHS summed it up this way: “Corn inspections were outstanding with the total setting a marketing year high. Inspections have been above one million tons for nine consecutive weeks. This is also the ninth week in a row where corn inspections have been above both la

Highlights President Trump will give his State of the Union Address this evening at 8 PM Central Time. He says he will make a major announcement. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would impose tariffs on "external" agricultural products starting April 2, urging American farmers to increase domestic production. In a Monday social media post, he stated, “Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural products to be sold INSIDE of the United States.” However, he di

Tidbits Corn was hit hard yesterday by the expected increase in 2025 acres, improved weather in South America, and first notice day for deliveries on March futures, all of which is old news. Improved weather for soybean harvest means more safrinha corn will get planted and Argentina’s dry areas will get a drink, but that does not change the fact the world is short of corn. After Friday’s price decline, we were surprised to see corn so weak yesterday. Soybeans traded to the bo

Highlights Yesterday, Saudi Arabia hosted the first talks between Russia and the U.S. since the start of the war in Ukraine. President Donald Trump commented on their outcome, here are the main points: Trump called the meeting between the U.S. and Russian delegations ‘very good’ and admitted that after it he became ‘much more confident’ in reaching a deal on a settlement in Ukraine; Trump said he was not against sending European troops to Ukraine, but there would be no Americ

Highlights At 11 AM Central time this morning, the USDA will release its monthly S&D. We sent the estimates to you as part of Saturday’s mailing. We expect the numbers to be friendly corn, negative for soybeans, neutral to friendly wheat. Brazil’s situation paraphrased from AgrInvest last evening: “Soybean basis for the export market is rising, especially for March shipments. Sales are increasing rapidly, but soybean stocks at ports are still low. Soybean sales by farmers thi

Highlights Colombia’s President Petro late Sunday agreed to all of President Trump’s terms on the deportation of migrants. Colombia is a top 5 buyer of U.S. corn and soybean meal while the U.S. is Colombia’s number one trading partner and buys nearly one-third of Colombia’s total exports. Colombia sends crude oil, gold, bananas, fresh-cut flowers, and more than one-quarter of US coffee imports come from Colombia. U.S. tech stocks were sharply lower yesterday, after Chinese AI

Highlights S&P Global published their estimates for US spring planting intentions for corn and beans. We added the past three years: Corn: 93.5 million acres, 90.6(2024), 94.6(2023), 88.2(2022) Beans: 83.3 million acres, 87.1(2024), 83.6(2023), 87.5(2022) Trump said no tariffs will be imposed until 1 February and then only on Canada and Mexico. The dollar index has lost 2 full points the past two days because tariffs were postponed or cancelled.

Highlights We really do not have a logical explanation why soybeans futures are up 68¢ the past 3 trading days and up $1.06 the past 15 trading days. South America most likely will harvest the largest crop they have ever harvested. The world carryover is a 116 day supply; it is truly a burden for $10.50 futures. Last year’s world carryover was a 107 day supply and you well remember what a painful experience $9.52 soybean futures were last August. The dollar index was 100.

Tidbits Yesterday, March corn traded over $4.60 for the first time since late June. South American weather is not improving, but make no mistake, the South American soybean crop will be overwhelmingly large. The USDA is likely to increase its Brazilian bean production estimate on Friday. It is also reasonable the USDA will reduce corn production in the U.S. and world wide. Yesterday’s Commitment of Traders Report (COT) showed managed money holds the largest net long corn pos

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 23,000 mts of old soybean oil to India. China and India usually buy palm oil from Indonesia or Malaysia, but those two countries are going big on biodiesel and have greatly restricted palm oil exports. Egypt's public procurement agency, Mostakbal Misr, has secured direct contracts for 1.267 million mts of primarily Russian wheat, sufficient to meet the country's needs until June 2025. In the first half of the 2024/25

Highlights The Equatorial Pacific Surface Water temperature has dropped a half °C the past two reporting weeks and is now 1° below normal. That is why it is turning dry in Argentina and Southern Brazil and so very wet in Northern Brazil where 85% of their beans are grown. That much rain is great for the beans in that sandy soil until they are mature. As you know, soybeans cannot be harvested when the stems are wet or even damp. Harvest will be delayed and the quality of the b