Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 1 PM Central Time today. The market expects a quarter percent point increase. Did China suspend the tariffs on U.S. soybeans? Around 11 AM Central time yesterday a marketing service reported China had lifted the tariff on U.S. beans. However, we could find no confirmation of such action. We do expect that will be one of the positive things that will be announced next week when China’s President Xi comes t

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA announced yesterday the sales of old crop soybeans: 272,000 mts to China and 206,500 mts to unknown. Chinese purchases of U.S. beans have likely reached 13 million mts with Chinese leader Xi visiting Washington 2 weeks away. The market expects them to buy 25 million during the marketing year. South America: Brazilian September exports of soybean are expected to reach 7.74 million mts, up 11% from a year ago. Their corn exports are expected at onl

Tidbits Presidents Putin and Trump had an hour long telephone conversation yesterday. It was strictly confidential, but was described as positive. Canada: The U.S. banned a broad swath of Canadian alcoholic beverages, motorcycles and dairy products from import on Tuesday, sharply escalating ​an already acrimonious trade spat. The import bans, which go into effect on September 29 and were published on the White House's website, came after Canada's own retaliatory tariffs on U.

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA reported yesterday sales of 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown. Iran & China: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced “Operation Economic Outcast” yesterday, saying “If (countries) facilitate transactions and are part of the ecosystem that turns Iranian oil into money, into repression, they will be targeted.” This includes any country that participates in Iran’s aviation, shipping, and technology sectors. Bessent said that China will n

Tidbits At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will issue its monthly USA and world S&D. Conab is also expected to update their Brazilian production forecasts today. Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 136,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China and 180,000 mts of new crop soybean meal to the Philippines. The Black Sea: The Deputy Director of the Commercial Operations Department for Ukraine was cited as the source of a rumor among international grain trade par

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 122,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Weather: The drought monitor as of August 4th shows 70.9% of the U.S. is experiencing abnormal dryness or drought, up 3 points from the previous week, with 48.5% in D1 level drought or higher: corn at 28% (down 1), soybeans at 26% (unchanged), and 58% (up 16 points) of spring wheat acres also impacted. The National Weather Service 7-day forecast expects rain to be lighter

Tidbits Flash Sales: Yesterday, the USDA announced the sale of 252,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown. China's Soybean Auctions: China's Sinograin auctioned 504,000 metric tons (18.5 million bushels) of imported soybeans on Friday. They sold roughly half of the offered volume in its largest reserve auction since January. Sold beans moved into commercial channels, and Sinograin has scheduled another auction of 501,158 metric tons for Wednesday, involving soybeans produced

Tidbits Just before the CBOT trading day ends today, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rate change. The CME's Fed Watch Tool shows the market has priced-in a 29.4% chance of a rate hike. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 197,272 mts of new crop corn to unknown. When a sales tonnage is not an even thousand mts, it means the grain is going to be shipped by train. Modern rail hopper cars have a maximum gross weight of 286,000

USDA’s July S&D Yesterday’s USDA numbers were supportive for corn, wheat, and beans, but wheat got an extra boost from Russia restricting access to waterways leading to the Sea of Azov (southeast of Ukraine) following Ukrainian attacks on oil tankers operating in the region. Analysts calculate that could take 735 million bushels off the world wheat market. Russia is the world’s leading wheat exporter. Confirmation from USDA that U.S. 2026 wheat production is the lowest in 56

Tidbits July CBOT options expire Friday. All long July futures and July basis contracts must be liquidated or rolled no later than Monday to avoid any possibility of being assigned delivery. July corn was a bit stronger than September corn yesterday. That is good if you have July futures or basis contracts to roll to September. Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale of 30,000 mt of old crop corn and 70,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico. Livestock: The num

Tidbits The Heart of the Midwest is having some rough weather this morning. Be careful and be safe! Weekly Basis: Because Friday was a Federal holiday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) did not issue its weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report. The COT will be issued on Monday afternoon. Therefore, our Weekly Basis report will be issued Tuesday morning. December corn made its high for the year on this date in 2023 at $6.29¾. The U.S. new crop corn carryo

Tidbits After the CBOT breakfast break yesterday morning, corn, wheat, and beans jumped sharply higher for no apparent reason. More than an hour later, Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities reported that China was rumored to be asking for quotes on U.S. soybeans for Oct to Mar shipment because Brazil’s FOB quotes were so much higher than they were a year ago for the same shipment period. DTN reports old crop corn basis is perking up in the PNW for July-Sep +130 to +135; June

Tidbits Mexico’s main meat industry group said yesterday it aims to double beef exports to the ‌United States next year, seeking to offset losses from a border closure triggered by a screwworm outbreak. In the first four months of the year, Mexican beef exports to the U.S. increased by about 23% according to officials of the Mexican ​Meat Chamber, who said fresh meat accounts for most of what is exported. The U.S. border has been closed to Mexican livestock for about a year.

Highlights Biofuel: Jarrett Renshaw is a White House reporter for Reuters with a focus on energy policy. He reported late yesterday afternoon: “The Trump administration will release biofuel quotas 2026/27 this week, sometime before Friday's farm event at White House. The quotas have not been materially changed by Iran war price spike concerns, I'm told.” Later yesterday, Renshaw reported: “Trump is expected to waive summer gasoline blending rules - pave way for summer E15 sal

Highlights: Iran Shortly after 6 AM Central time yesterday morning, Trump wrote on Truth Social that Iran and the U.S. had engaged in “good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution” of the hostilities. Consequently, Trump wrote that he had ordered the Department of War to postpone all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. That sent crude oil down $10 and CBOT markets went from smartly higher to low

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 336,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. China’s state stockpiler Sinograin purchased 10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week, totaling about 600,000 mts for March–May shipment, the total U.S. crop purchases are now estimated at 8.5–10 million mts, up to 80% of the 12 million mts Secretary Scott Bessent said China pledged to buy by end-February. Venezuela’s Stock Market was up 17% on Monday and 50% yesterday after Nicolás

Tidbits Farm Aid: U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the Trump administration will unveil a “bridge payment” for farmers next week to provide short-term relief while longer trade and aid packages are finalized, amid pressure from farm groups and Republican lawmakers. The administration faces calls for more immediate funds for the next planting season, while expanding some farm supports in the latest spending bill. Overall, the U.S. government is expected to spend

Tidbits September CBOT options expire today. All September basis contracts and long September futures positions need to be liquidated or rolled forward by the close of business on 28 August, next Thursday. Your merchandiser’s “house rules” may require action before the 28th. Soybeans to China: Fox News reported late yesterday U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent told President Caleb Ragland of the American Soybean Association and the Governor of Ohio: “We are in the process of

Tidbits Yesterday at midday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the trade talks with China in London were going well and he hoped they would end on Tuesday night but said they could run into Wednesday. Later, he said the two sides have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between their respective presidents. ADM reports Trump is looking at rolling back the port fees on China vessels scheduled to take effect in October. Dr. Cordonnier inc

Tidbits Barchart.com is one of the most popular charting services for every market (stocks, bonds, options, commodities, indexes, etc.). Barchart provides a lot of free information as well as many other services for a fee. Every business day, Barchart reports the conclusion of thirteen purely technical analysis systems to recommend if an investor should buy, sell, or hold a given investment item. The results are computer generated. Therefore, we conclude there is no human opi