BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits September CBOT options  expire today. All September basis contracts and long September futures positions need to be liquidated or rolled forward by the close of business on 28 August, next Thursday. Your merchandiser’s “house rules” may require action before the 28th.   Soybeans to China: Fox News reported late yesterday U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent told President Caleb Ragland of the American Soybean Association and the Governor of Ohio:  “We are in the process of

Tidbits Yesterday at midday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the trade talks  with China in London were going well and he hoped they would end on Tuesday night but said they could run into Wednesday. Later, he said the two sides have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between their respective presidents. ADM reports Trump is looking at rolling back the port fees  on China vessels scheduled to take effect in October. Dr. Cordonnier i

Tidbits Barchart.com is one of the most popular charting services for every market (stocks, bonds, options, commodities, indexes, etc.). Barchart provides a lot of free information as well as many other services for a fee. Every business day, Barchart reports the conclusion of thirteen purely technical analysis systems to recommend if an investor should buy, sell, or hold a given investment item. The results are computer generated. Therefore, we conclude there is no human op

Highlights Crude oil  was higher yesterday in past because of this press release yesterday morning from the U.S. Treasury : Today, the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating a “teapot” oil refinery and its chief executive officer for purchasing and refining hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Iranian crude oil, including from vessels linked to the Foreign Terrorist Organization, Ansarallah, commonly known as the Houthis, and

Tidbits Federal Reserve  Chairman Jerome Powell said yesterday afternoon interest rates will not be changed this month, but he weighed in on the state of the US economy. His outlook was not reassuring, which was not a surprise knowing he hates Trump. Powell said Trump’s policies are one reason why inflation is reigniting. Powell said the Fed sharply reduced its 2025 growth projection for the U.S. economy and noted that uncertainty around the slowing economy is increasing. Pow

Highlights Early yesterday afternoon, President Trump said, "After speaking with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement until April 2nd.   Mexico’s President Sheinbaum said, "We had an excellent and respectful call in which we agreed that our work and collaboration have yielded unprecedented results, within the framework of respect for our sovereignties."   Sheinbaum

Highlights The USDA made no changes on the domestic corn and soybean S&D  other than increasing the average price expected to be paid to...

Highlights Several of our Eastern Corn Belt clients informed us yesterday afternoon and evening that the wind on the wet corn stalks really knocked a lot of corn down late Friday to Saturday morning. Bob told us the Case IH dealer in Urbana of Champaign County, Ohio sold two corn reels yesterday morning.       Soybean yields from about a dozen farms in northeast Illinois range from 25.4 to 65.1. Three in the 20's, one 39 bu, three in the 40's, one 53.7, and two in the 60's. T

Tidbits March U.S. manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers index) was better than expected at 52.5, services PMI was below expectation at 51.7, values above 50 imply expansion. Existing home sales were better than expected at 4.38 million. Jobless claims at 210k were less than expected.   Iowa is facing drought for the 4th year in a row. Today's drought monitor showed at least abnormally dry conditions with 23% for corn and 19% for beans. Seasonal outlooks, released by NOAA to

FSA Program News and Updates   The 2024 ARC/PLC Program enrollment and election change deadline is March 15, 2024. To be enrolled in the program you MUST sign a contract every year; the program does not auto-renew.   CRP General Sign Up is underway. All General offers need to be submitted by March 29, 2024, for the ranking process.   CONAB production report to be released within a few hours. Highlights Definition of “B3” is short for the São Paulo Stock, Commodities and Futur

Tidbits USDA reported yesterday morning China canceled their purchase of 130,000 mts of old soft red winter wheat.   China’s exports and imports for the first two months of the year were above expectations. This is viewed as an indication that demand may be improving, and the Chinese government has been attempting to speed up its economy. Exports were up 7.1% from a year ago, while imports were up 3.5% as compared to the same period last year. Dr. Michael Cordonnier reports t

Tidbits According to AgriCensus, the Russian government may decrease the unofficial “floor price” for Russian wheat to $235 per mt FOB,...

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale of 206,834 mts of old crop soybeans to Mexico. December bean crush was reported at 204 mil bu. vs 206.5 mil expected, up 9.1% from a year ago. Corn used for ethanol was 481.7 mil bu. vs 474.4 mil expected, up 13.1% from prior year. Brazil's soybeans estimates were updated lower: Datagro: 148.55 mmt (was 152.88 mmt) Agresource: 145.4 mmt (was 150.7 mmt) StoneX: 150.35 mmt (was 152.8 mmt) January agency estimates, as a re

Tidbits AGRural lowered Brazil soybean production estimate by 9 million to 150.1 mil mts.   Dr. Michael Cordonnier: Lowered Brazil soybean estimate by 2 mil to 149 mil mts (USDA at 157). Lowered Brazil corn estimate by 2 mil to 115 mil mts (USDA at 127). Increased Argentine soybean estimate by 2 mil to 52 million mts. Increased Argentine corn estimate by 3 mil to 56 million mts.   Farmers’ protests continue in Germany blocking highways and accumulating in Berlin. Demand is to

Highlights China is still a big buyer of Brazilian soybeans despite their “poor” economic data. Cash bean traders in Brazil say China bought five more shiploads this week for July shipment in addition to the 10 to 12 last week. Some analysts estimate Chinese soybean imports this marketing year will be a record large 102-104 million mt compared to the USDA’s estimate of 98 million. Three vessels loaded with 120,000 mt of soybeans will ship from Brazil between June 4 and 11 to

Highlights The USDA announced yesterday morning the sale of 110,000 mts of soybeans to unknown. The biggest near term Black Swan Event (terrible, shocking news to crush a market) is the EU has a major bird flu problem; some say it is the worst ever with over 50 million birds “affected”. Does “affected” mean 50 million will be destroyed? Probably, but the bigger Black Swan concern is can the infection be contained? Chickens eat a lot of corn and bean meal. The US corn crop is

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