BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits The only excuse given for corn’s sharp losses yesterday was the planting progress being 2% more than a year ago. No doubt, yesterday being the last trading day before first notice day for deliveries on May futures had something to do with the decline. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of old crop corn to Spain and 110,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown. Also, an importer in Taiwan purchased 65,000 mts of U.S. corn and a South Korean im

Tidbits There was some progress with China yesterday. China stated it wants to see a number of steps from Donald Trump’s administration before it will agree to  trade talks , including showing more respect by reining in disparaging remarks by members of Trump's cabinet. China’s leadership wants the U.S. to appoint a point person for talks with China’s top trade negotiator. California on Wednesday filed a lawsuit seeking to block U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 240,000 mts of old crop corn to Spain. In February, U.S. agricultural trade deficit showed slight improvement, with exports decreasing to $13.59 billion (a drop of $830 million from January) and imports falling more sharply to $17.86 billion (down $2.81 billion). This reduction narrowed the monthly trade deficit to $4.27 billion, an improvement from January's record deficit of $6.25 billion. USDA projects 2025 financia

Highlights India is, by far, the largest world buyer of nitrogen fertilizer and they prefer urea. This past week India finally issued their first urea tender of 2025. It was expected to be issued from late January to the end of February. The nitrogen market-makers have been nervous and nitrogen retailers have been stressed the past few months waiting to see how much urea India would seek to buy and what price they would be willing to pay for it. That information is needed to

Tidbits Yesterday, May corn  futures contract made a new low at $4.42 for “the move” (meaning since the recent high was made at $5.18¾ on 19 February) and then closed higher for the day. Technicians call that a “key reversal” and regard it as a trend changer. While very encouraging, nothing is 100% in this business.     Jason Britt  is President of Central States Commodities. He wrote yesterday:   "Brazil’s corn better get more rain than this before the dry season actually st

Tidbits The Trump administration has urged oil and biofuels  producers to collaborate on a new biofuels policy to prevent political conflicts similar to those in his first term. This initiative has led to at least two meetings, including one hosted by the American Petroleum Institute. Key discussions included increasing the mandate for renewable diesel and biodiesel from 3.35 billion gallons to between 4.75 billion and 5.5 billion gallons. Ethanol blending mandates are curren

Highlights Pro Farmer released their U.S. planting projections  on Friday. They expect 3.5% more corn acres at 93.75 million acres and a 2.4% decrease in soybean acres to 85 million. Spring wheat acres are expected to be down while durum wheat may see a slight increase in plantings. They see total wheat at 45.5 million acres, down 1.5% from last year. Some other surveys showed estimates about 95.4 million of corn and 82.75 million of soybeans. The CHS outlook for U.S. spring

Highlights CONAB ( Brazil’s  USDA) updated its production estimates yesterday (all numbers are million mts): Soybeans: 167.369, up 1.346 from last month (USDA 169) All Corn: 122.760, up 440,000 (USDA 126) Second crop corn: 95.515, down 533,000 (USDA NA) The basis for corn, soybean, and soybean meal in Brazil was firmer yesterday despite the higher futures prices.   In Argentina , the Rosario Stock Exchange has once again reduced its projection for the corn harvest by 1.5 mill

Highlights AgrInvest Commodities cash grain trader for exports, Eduardo Vanin , yesterday morning: "The soybean basis rally continues. For May, at +75sk (75¢ over May soybean futures)  new highs, +50¢ per bushel from last week. This is one of the most aggressive weekly rallies I have ever seen. The April/May cash price is nearly equal to the June/July (very little carry) ."   Earlier this week, a conveyor belt system collapsed  at the TGPM grain loading port terminal at the B

Highlights First thing this morning the USDA will release its projections for 2025  crops and that includes the S&D with acres planted, yields, and price projections. The average estimate for tomorrow’s acreage numbers are 93.6 million for corn, 84.4 million for soybeans, and 46.7 million for wheat. Drew Learner, Senior Agricultural Meteorologist at World Weather expects drier than normal weather for Brazil’s safrinha corn:   “While monsoon precipitation is expected to prevai

Highlights March CBOT options expire today which usually means lower prices. The expected hot weather in Argentina this weekend sent soybeans higher yesterday, but not so much the corn. We think the faint rumors from the New York Times of a Trump trade deal with China boosted soybeans more than weather. Due to high prices, India cancelled the purchase of 70,000 mts of Malaysian palm oil which had been scheduled for delivery March through June. Sunflower oil futures rose above

Highlights After the ag futures close today, they will not reopen until Monday evening at normal times. Crude oil will be trading normal hours Sunday night and Monday. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate of Argentine corn production by 2 million mts to 46 million mts (USDA 50) and lowered soybean production by 5 million to 47.5 million mts (USDA 49). CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) reduced their Brazilian soybean production estimate by a mere 310,000 mts to 166 million mts

Highlights The weather pattern Mato Grosso and Goias through Wednesday is expected to allow a sharp advance in the harvest pace. Weather forecasts indicate alternating rain and sun, with higher temperatures. Elevators in Mato Grosso reported a three to fourfold increase in soybean deliveries the past two days. Crushers report very low protein content (below 33%), but high oil content.   In Brazil’s leading corn and bean producing state, Mato Grosso (MT), the prices in July fo

Ag market futures will resume trading at normal time this evening. Crude oil began trading as its usual time last evening, namely 5 PM Central, and will trade today until its normal close at 4 PM Central.   Wayne Bacon is traveling, so there will be no world FOB grain price and ocean freight rate report this week. Tidbits Much of Argentina’s crop areas received between three and four tenths (~10 mm) on Saturday.     Sunday morning weather update for crop areas of Argentina: "

Highlights Agricultural markets will close at 12:15 PM CST tomorrow, January 9th in a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. The grain markets will reopen at their regular times Thursday evening and trade normal hours on Friday, January 10th, the day of the USDA S&D at 10 AM Mountain Time. The weather forecast for South America has not improved in the past 24 hours. If anything it is hotter and drier in Rio Grande do Sul and Argentina and rain is in the f

Tidbits If you have beans on a January basis contract, get them rolled today to March. This market may go inverted (January premium to...

Tidbits A 25% tariff on imported Canadian crude oil  would have a major impact on North American energy markets, driving up prices for refiners in the U.S. Midwest and potentially hitting differentials for Canadian oil.   The U.S. imported about 4.0 million barrels of Canadian crude and petroleum products per day in 2024.   Refiners in the Midwest rely heavily on Canadian crude. Those facilities are configured to run heavier oil grades which are preferred for diesel fuel. Abo

Highlights December CBOT options expire today.   As we wrote earlier, President Biden authorized Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with long-range missiles, after that Ukraine launched two missile strikes on Russian regions. Experts say those missiles have to be operated by NATO specialists. Yesterday, Russia launched a strike with the “Oreshnik” Hypersonic Intercontinental Ballistic Missile  at a military plant in Ukraine. It is said hypersonic missiles have a sp

Highlights Leaders of foreign countries who sell products to the U.S. markets, are scurrying to prepare to deal with President Trump’s...

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 124,000 mts of corn to unknown.   Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his South American corn and soybean crop estimates unchanged from last month (in million mts):   Corn: Brazil 125 (USDA 127), Argentina 48 (USDA 51)  Soybeans: Brazil 165 (USDA 169), Argentina 57 (USDA 51)   Egypt purchased 290,000 mts of wheat this week: 120,000 mts Romania 120,000 mts Ukraine 50,000 mts Bulgaria   Chinese manufacturing purchasing manage