BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Nitrogen Fertilizer: Get it Priced Roger has been recommending not to forward price fertilizer, including nitrogen, for more than a year. Natural gas futures have not made a new low since June 1st when it made a double bottom (trend change indicator) and from June 25th, 3 years ago. Winter is getting closer and the war in Europe is escalating. The world's longest ammonia pipeline runs from Tolyatti Azot's plant in Russia to Odessa, Ukraine. The “Tolyatti – Odessa” pipeline u

Highlights Tonight’s opening prices will probably be primarily influenced by news about the Ukraine Corridor Deal which expires at midnight Monday. Whether prices are higher or lower because of that news, do not be making any cash grain marketing decisions based on the Ukraine deal. Weather is far more important. La Niña and El Niño episodes can have a profound impact on world crop production. Some areas of the world see their weather turn warmer and drier while other areas

Q&A: Safrinha Corn Roger, a few days back you mentioned corn demand was likely to improve at the current price levels. How would this time be different as opposed to mid-May when Dec Corn was in the $5 range. Also, what is the status of the late planted Brazilian Safrinha crop? Watching your daily rain days they have been dry for a while and look to be having plus 90 temps. Was the late planted crop already mature enough when this dry season came to light? I see that Brazil'

Highlights The nation’s corn crop is rated 50% and the bean crop is rated 51% good or excellent are at their second lowest point for this week in history. Only 1988 was worse. The market was expecting a 2% decline in the top two categories for corn and beans. Corn lost 5% from the good and excellent categories and beans lost 3%. Illinois’ corn crop dropped a whopping 8% to just 25% good or excellent; 26% of Illinois’ corn is rated poor or very poor. When was the last time p

Highlights July CBOT options expire today. The day before and the day options expire are usually down days for CBOT futures. President Biden at a west coast fundraiser called China’s President Xi a "dictator" Wednesday evening. Xi was not pleased one bit and he let the US Ambassador know that Biden’s comment was "political provocation." In hindsight, that added pressure to the soybeans yesterday on top of the biodiesel blending disappointment. Secretary of Treasury Janet Yel

Highlights Suddenly yesterday morning, the market became very concerned about a lack of rain on Canada’s canola crop and Europe’s rapeseed crop. That supposedly was the reason beans traded 42¢ higher yesterday midday. Soyoil traded sharply higher Tuesday and closed above its 100-day moving average. Yesterday morning, the consumer price index for May was reported to be up 0.1% and up 4% from a year ago, the lowest annual gain in about two years. This morning at 7:30 Central,

Highlights The Weekly Crop Condition Report was a shocker to the market. The market expected the nation’s corn crop to be 67% good or excellent, down 2% from last week, but it was down 5% from last week at 64% good or excellent. This year’s corn crop is rated 9% lower in the good to excellent categories than a year ago this date. Last year’s crop yielded 173 bushels and USDA projects this year’s crop at 181.5, the trend yield. The market expected the first soybean crop rati

Highlights China is still a big buyer of Brazilian soybeans despite their “poor” economic data. Cash bean traders in Brazil say China bought five more shiploads this week for July shipment in addition to the 10 to 12 last week. Some analysts estimate Chinese soybean imports this marketing year will be a record large 102-104 million mt compared to the USDA’s estimate of 98 million. Three vessels loaded with 120,000 mt of soybeans will ship from Brazil between June 4 and 11 to

Highlights Dr. Michael Cordonnier reported yesterday: "Dryer weather has encompassed most if not all the safrinha corn area of central and south-central Brazil. There is little rainfall in the forecast for central Brazil with a slight chance of rain this week in south-central Brazil. Some of the safrinha corn areas have been dry for about four weeks and there is little rainfall in the forecast. Temperatures are forecasted to warm up and the Brazilian National Weather Service

Highlights The fast planting progress for corn and beans with a favorable weather forecast kicked those two markets lower Monday evening. The sellers got a boost from a batch of Chinese economic data which showed industrial output and retail sales growth in April was less than expected and real estate investment values fell again. Both domestic and export growth engines were lackluster. Slow economy in China means reduced food demand. That means less pork (pigs eat a lot of

Highlights The crop progress report was supportive for wheat, but corn and bean planting progress was 1% more planted than the market expected, so a bit negative for prices. The national numbers: Corn: 49% planted vs expectation of 48%; the 10 year average is 42% planted. Beans: 35% planted vs expectation of 34%; the 10 year average is 11% planted. Spring wheat: 24% planted vs expectation of 28%; the 10 year average is 38% planted. Winter wheat: 29% rated good or excellent; t

Highlights

Your futures broker and your merchandiser want all May futures positions and basis contracts liquidated or rolled by the close of business today. Friday is the first day the CBOT will issue delivery assignments to the oldest long May contract futures contract on the books; Friday is what the trade calls “First Notice Day” (FND). For CBOT ag contracts, FND is always the last business day of the calendar month preceding the futures contract month. To learn about how the deliver

Highlights Ukraine has reached an agreement with Poland on the resumption of the transit of Ukrainian food through Poland to the Baltic Sea beginning this evening. The U.S. Ag Attaché in Argentina lowered his estimate of the country’s soybean production to 23.9 million mts (USDA at 27). That would be the lowest in 24 years and a yield estimate of 23.5 bu/acre would be the poorest in almost 50 years. Russia is blocking Turkey’s inspection of ships loaded with Ukrainian grain

Tidbits The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a "disbursement" of $5.4 billion to Argentina on Friday. That is money down a rat-hole. Weather ENSO Analysis El Niño-Southern Oscillation, aka ENSO , is the measurement of the factors that cause the warm and cool phases across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean from South America into the Indian Ocean. These water temperature changes also change world weather. The pattern shifts back and forth irregularly every two to seven

Highlights There is a growing sense of relief and optimism that the banking shock is abating, the Federal Reserve’s vice chairman for supervision, Michael Barr, and FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg told US lawmakers on Tuesday. They said that depositor funds in U.S. banks are safe and sound. The market believed them for at least one day. They also said tougher regulations will be forthcoming. China announced it will ease regulatory crackdowns and support private enterprises’ t

Highlights Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Victoria Abramchenko told reporters after her report to the Duma (legislature), that Russia was considering banning wheat and fertilizer exports. Another source said the discussions included taking the government-owned wheat reserve from 3 million mts to 10 million. After producing more wheat than ever before in 2022, Russia substantially increased its wheat export tax on January first and again, to a lesser extent, on February first

Highlights The USDA’s domestic corn and world corn carryover projections were both larger than expected. Corn finished the day down 8 to 9¢. The USDA’s domestic wheat and world wheat carryover projections were both less than expected. Soft red winter and hard red spring wheat finished the day down 9 to 11¢. Hard red winter was up 1 to down 5¢. The USDA’s domestic soybean and world soybean carryover projections were both less than expected. Soybeans finished the day up 2

Highlights The USDA monthly S&D and World Production reports will be issued today at 10 AM Mountain Time. Russian military units are moving into Eastern Ukraine; rumor is February 15th is the day of attack. Last year, it was February 24th. The struggling Indian conglomerate, Adani Enterprises Ltd, stock prices were up 14.64% Tuesday, as the investment world breathed a collective sigh of relief. Tidbits Mexico’s Secretary of Economy said this about US GMO corn imports in 202

Highlights The UN Secretary-General who is at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, said the world economy is in sad shape with multiple negative issues, which compound each other. The debate about the US debt ceiling is always a negative for markets. The Democrats are saying the Republicans are willing to stop social security checks, medicare payments and default on the national debt. It did not help attitudes when Microsoft and Amazon both laid-off 10,000