Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Acres: Matt Bennet of Agmarket.net expects actual planted corn acres to be less than the March Intentions due to high fertilizer prices, supply challenges, and excessive moisture across regions of the United States. However, the firm says rallying corn prices during the spring kept the reduction from being more significant. Bennett says any acres lost in corn most likely shifted directly to soybeans. The firm believes combined corn and soybean acres are at 180.2 milli

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits July CBOT options expire Friday. All long July futures and July basis contracts must be liquidated or rolled no later than Monday to avoid any possibility of being assigned delivery. July corn was a bit stronger than September corn yesterday. That is good if you have July futures or basis contracts to roll to September. Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale of 30,000 mt of old crop corn and 70,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico. Livestock: The num

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 51,565, +362 points for the week, then 51,712 on Monday. Crude oil settled at $77.54, -6.75, then to $74.82 on Monday. Dollar Index settled at 100.76, +0.95, then to 101.02 on Monday. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,722, -9

Tidbits Brazil: Safras & Mercado lowered their Brazilian corn production forecast 200,000 mts to 139.9 million mts, still slightly above the USDA estimate of 138 million mts. IMEA reports the 2nd corn harvest in Mato Grosso has reached 21% vs. only 14% a year ago, however behind the historical average of 23%. AgRural reports that across Brazil 2nd crop harvest has reached 16% just above the year ago pace of 13%. Argentine corn harvest has reached 48% while the Buenos Aires Gr

Tidbits The Corn Belt weather a week from now is going to be hot and wet. Iran: President Trump threatened to restart war with Iran on Sunday even as Vice President JD Vance met Iranian officials for the first talks under an interim peace deal that was overshadowed by Tehran's announcement it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz. Q&A: Inflation Hyperinflation: Gilbert asked when will we see hyperinflation? Economists follow Philip Cagan's classic definition of hyperinfla

Tidbits The Heart of the Midwest is having some rough weather this morning. Be careful and be safe! Weekly Basis: Because Friday was a Federal holiday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) did not issue its weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report. The COT will be issued on Monday afternoon. Therefore, our Weekly Basis report will be issued Tuesday morning. December corn made its high for the year on this date in 2023 at $6.29¾. The U.S. new crop corn carryo

Tidbits Baker Hughes reported there were 563 oil and gas drilling rigs in operation last week in the USA. That is 1 more than last week and 9 more than a year ago. Canada had 186 rigs drilling this past week, 6 more than the previous week and 47 more than a year ago! CGB at Gladstone Bluff, Illinois (on The River) Friday evening compared to last week: Corn spot delivery: -16N (16 under July), 2¢ weaker = $4.02 Fall delivery: -32Z (32 under December), steady = $4.12 Soybean

Tidbits The CBOT futures markets are closed today for Juneteenth Day. They will reopen Sunday evening at usual times. Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sales of: 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China 120,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown 285,775 mt of new crop corn to Mexico Algeria bought between 800-850,000 mts of milling wheat yesterday at $265/mt CFR (Cost and Freight) for August shipment. The grain is likely sourced from the Black Sea and E

Tidbits The U.S. and Iran released the text of an interim agreement their presidents have signed to end their war on Wednesday, with the U.S. President threatening to resume attacks and kill Iranian officials if they failed to honour their ​commitments. Iran's leaders did not address the new threats. The memorandum of understanding stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, with Iran agreeing to allow “safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only,

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits After the CBOT breakfast break yesterday morning, corn, wheat, and beans jumped sharply higher for no apparent reason. More than an hour later, Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities reported that China was rumored to be asking for quotes on U.S. soybeans for Oct to Mar shipment because Brazil’s FOB quotes were so much higher than they were a year ago for the same shipment period. DTN reports old crop corn basis is perking up in the PNW for July-Sep +130 to +135; June

Market Comment The grain futures will not trade this Friday, 19 June for Juneteenth Day. After this week’s three day weekend, two weeks later will be another three day weekend with the 4th of July. July grain options expire on 26 June, that is a week from this Friday. Long July futures and basis contracts must be rolled or cashed out by the close of business on Monday 29 June. Your grain merchandiser may have house rules that require July basis contracts rolled or liquidated

Iran Yesterday at 5:29 PM Eastern Daylight time Donald Trump announced that the agreement between Iran and the U.S. has been concluded. This was also reported by Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif: "After intensive negotiations, we are pleased to announce that a peace agreement between the US and Iran has been reached. Both sides have announced an immediate and final cessation of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. The official signing ceremony wil

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 51,202, +335 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $84.29, -5.96. Dollar Index settled at 99.81, -0.26. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,818, -163. Corn July futures settled at $4.12¾, -4¾¢ for the week. December corn se

Tidbits Iran: Reuters News Service reported yesterday afternoon: U.S. President Donald Trump and mediator Pakistan said on Saturday an initial deal to end the war in the Middle East would be signed on Sunday, although Iran denied the signing would take place so soon. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the two sides had agreed on a framework for a peace deal and that Islamabad was preparing for an electronic signing on Sunday, ‌to be followed by technical-level talks

Tidbits Red Tape Removed: According to Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab, a government agency), annual grain production over the past 10 years has grown by an average of nearly 7%, while storage capacity has increased only 2.4%. Currently, Brazil has the capacity to store approximately 60% to 63% of its annual grain production, more than 130 million mts less than needed. That is why their cash prices are so low during harvest; there just is no place to put the grain exc

June S&D Yesterday’s USDA June S&D was about as expected except for the increase of South American corn crops. USDA increased old crop corn imports by 3 million bushels which carried through to the carryover. Old crop soybean exports were reduced by 20 million bushels, but the old crop soybean crush was increased the same 20 million bushels, which left the carryover unchanged at 340 million bushels, a 29 day supply. There was no change in the 2026 corn or bean production numb

Numbers were: Slightly Friendly Wheat Slightly Negative Corn due to increased world carryovers Neutral Soybeans 25 Minutes after the June S&D Was Issued: July Corn -3.5 Dec Corn -4 July Beans -8.5 Nov Beans -5 July SRW Wheat +1 July HRW Wheat +5 Sept HRS Wheat +2

Tidbits June S&D: At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will issue its June S&D. It most likely will have very little impact on the markets. It is too early for USDA to change yields or acres for corn and beans. Wheat production could be interesting, but wheat harvest is just getting a good start. The demand side could see an increase in corn exports, a decrease in soybean exports with an increase in soybean crush. Will USDA reduce or increase the size of Brazil’s safrinha co