Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

USDA’s July S&D Yesterday’s USDA numbers were supportive for corn, wheat, and beans, but wheat got an extra boost from Russia restricting access to waterways leading to the Sea of Azov (southeast of Ukraine) following Ukrainian attacks on oil tankers operating in the region. Analysts calculate that could take 735 million bushels off the world wheat market. Russia is the world’s leading wheat exporter. Confirmation from USDA that U.S. 2026 wheat production is the lowest in 56

The report was: Friendly Wheat Friendly Soybeans Bullish Corn: Old Crop World Corn Carryover 3 mil mts less than the lowest estimate US Corn exports and feed use increased 50 Minutes after the July S&D Was Issued: Dec Corn +8 Nov Beans +5 Sept SRW Wheat +21 Sept HRW Wheat +23 Sept HRS Wheat +14 There were no corn or soybean yield changes

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday, the USDA reported new crop soybeans sales: 136,000 mts to China and 120,000 mts to unknown destinations. Soybean crush margins are record high and the U.S. crush pace is reaching breakneck speeds, according to the quarterly report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange released on July 8. Total soybeans crushed for the marketing year-to-date are up 8% compared to a year ago, with the pace consistently reaching monthly records. High diesel prices foll

Tidbits Some analysts said the sharply higher crude oil was why CBOT prices were smartly lower yesterday while other analysts said it was the belt of scattered showers from Kansas to Minnesota with more in the forecast for today and tomorrow. We will side with the rain for the lower prices. When it is July and rain is falling on Iowa, corn and beans will be down. Some weakness is caused every month by the fear of the USDA monthly S&D, which will be released tomorrow at 11 AM

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits Iran & Crude: The U.S. has renewed some sanctions and military strikes on Iran after three crude oil tankers were being struck by unknown projectiles in and near the Strait of Hormuz. August crude oil finished yesterday $1.89 higher and was another $2.05 higher after two hours of trading last evening. S&D: The USDA will issue its July S&D this Friday at 10 AM Mountain Time. Planted acres will be changed to the numbers on the 30 June USDA acreage report. Demand numbers

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 52,900, +1,024 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $68.78, -1.46. Dollar Index settled at 100.88, -0.49. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,717, +193. Corn September futures settled at $4.23 on Friday, +1¼¢ for the week.

Tidbits Super Typhoon Bavi’s near world record low barometric pressure captured the world headlines Monday morning as weather services connected the low pressure to the strong El Niño and global warming. Then pointed out the El Niño will continue to strengthen into December and January and exaggerated the potential worldwide crop production problems. The strength at the CBOT yesterday was all because of the “hype” and not because of any serious immediate crop problems. There

Tidbits Weather: On Friday, the seven locations we track in the Western Corn Belt were predicted to receive rain 40 out of a possible 70 days in the ten day forecast. Today, those same locations were predicted to receive rain in 17 days in the ten day forecast. Check this morning’s rain day chart and you will know why corn and beans are trading the way they are. The Mariana Islands are roughly halfway between the Philippines and Hawaii. Guam is the southernmost island of th

America on its 250th anniversary of Declaration of Independence In 1776, America was the first colony which had ever dared to declare itself independent from another country. Haiti was the second country of the world to declare and win its independence twenty some years later. From George Washington's First Inaugural Address: "It would be peculiarly improper to omit in this first official act my fervent supplications to that Almighty Being who rules over the universe, who p

Tidbits Wheat: The Bangladeshi government has approved the purchase of 220,000 mts of U.S. wheat. Under the new agreement signed in July 2025, Bangladesh began large-scale wheat imports from the United States for the first time. According to the deal, around 700,000 mts of wheat will be imported annually, with the first phase bringing in 220,000 mts at a price of $302–$308 per mt (~$8.30/bu.). Saudi Arabia has issued a tender to purchase 655,000 mts of wheat. Delivery is sche

Tidbits May Crushings data released yesterday by the USDA: Total corn consumed for alcohol and other uses was 524 million bushels, up 9% from April and up 5% from May 2025, 92% of it was for alcohol and 8% for other purposes. Soybeans crushed for crude oil was 6.39 million tons (213 million bushels), down 2.3% from April but up 4.4% from a year ago. Canola seeds crushed for crude oil was 164,947 tons in May 2026, 18% less from April but up 56% from May 2025. Cottonseed once r

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

30 June 2026: USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks USDA reported farmers did not decrease corn acres from their March Intentions. They planted as much corn as they said they would in March, 95.3 million acres. The friendly corn news was the corn demand. June 1 corn stocks at 5.295 billion bushels, 14% above last year, with on-farm holdings up 16% to 2.96 billion. The real story is the less than expected corn stocks. The actual corn inventory was 97 million bushels less than one pre-

Tidbits Today at 11 AM Central, the USDA will release its Actual Planted acres and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports. The USDA reported total corn disappearance from 1 December 2025 to 1 March 2026 was 4.258 billion bushels, up 350 million bushels from a year ago. Winter demand is always more than warmer weather demand. The market expects corn disappearance from 1 March to 1 June 2026 to be 3.632 billion bushels, up 128 million bushels from a year ago. Export inspections for the

Tidbits All CBOT July basis contracts and long July futures contracts need to be rolled or liquidated today to avoid any chance of being assigned delivery through the CBOT. Weather: With all the hot weather in Europe the past two weeks and the heat coming into the crop areas of the U.S. this weekend and predicted to stay over the next two weeks, we were surprised to see corn and soybeans futures drop 4 to 5¢ after opening Sunday evening. A brutal Western European hea

Tidbits Iran: Fox News reported the U.S. military launched a new round of airstrikes against Iranian targets Saturday afternoon after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC) attacked a second commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a senior U.S. official. The strikes are targeting Iranian air defenses, drone storage facilities, cruise missiles, targeting radars, minelaying capabilities and surface-to-air missile systems. Despite this, media reports sugges

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 51,876, +311 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $70.24, -7.30. Dollar Index settled at 101.37, +0.61. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,524, -198. Corn July futures settled at $4.12¾, -4¾¢ for the week. December corn s

Rolling HTA Contracts A client came up short on bushels to fill a July HTA contract for June delivery. The merchandiser suggested the client roll the portion of the undelivered bushels from July to November and deliver the bushels this fall. Our client agreed. He was surprised to learn his new November HTA price was higher than his July HTA. He asked how that could happen? The gain or loss on the roll from July to November has nothing to do with the price of the July HTA, w

Tidbits July CBOT Options expire today because this is the last Friday of the month with at least two business days the following week. Every corn futures contract from July 2026 through July 2027 made a new contract low yesterday and closed higher than the high for the previous day. That is what technicians call a “key reversal,” a fairly reliable indication of a price trend change. In recent weeks, corn futures contracts made two “hook reversals,” which is a new low followe