BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits A 25% tariff on imported Canadian crude oil  would have a major impact on North American energy markets, driving up prices for refiners in the U.S. Midwest and potentially hitting differentials for Canadian oil.   The U.S. imported about 4.0 million barrels of Canadian crude and petroleum products per day in 2024.   Refiners in the Midwest rely heavily on Canadian crude. Those facilities are configured to run heavier oil grades which are preferred for diesel fuel. Abo

Highlights OPEC+ on Thursday has postponed the revival of its oil production by three months, now set to begin in April 2025 instead of January 2025, marking the third such delay amid struggling crude prices and a potential surplus. The planned initial increase of 180,000 barrels per day will now be part of a slower unwinding of cuts expected to conclude in September 2026. Despite this delay, the UAE is permitted to gradually increase its production by 300,000 barrels per day

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale of 30,000 mts of old crop soybean oil and 35,000 mts of rice to South Korea.   Cargill began laying off employees across its operations on Tuesday in a drive to slash headcount by 5%. Cargill is facing a downturn in returns in cattle, grains and oilseeds businesses. In Minnesota, home to its headquarters, Cargill plans to terminate 475 employees. Cargill has more than 160,000 employees worldwide, and a spokesperson said al

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, December 2 , 2024: March corn settled yesterday at $4.32¼, +4¼¢ since last Tuesday.

Highlights Benson Quinn  reported yesterday afternoon: Corn usage the first two months of this marketing year is a 6 year high. Soybean oil stocks are at a 10-year low and crush net profit margins are up 7¢ to just over $1.10 per bushel. Russian wheat conditions are the worst in 10 years, rated 37% poor, as the crop enters mid-season and heads into winter exposure.   The U.S. Labor department  reported yesterday there were 1.11 job openings for every unemployed person in the

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 44,782, +485.49 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $68.8, -2.38. Dollar Index  settled at 106.22, -1.27. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,298, -239 for the week. Corn March futures  at $4.32½, -2¾¢ for the week. Basis   (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash pri

Highlights Yesterday, S&P Global reported China’s PMI rose to 51.5 in November, the highest since June as new export orders rose for the first time in four months. The market expected China’s PMI to be only 50.5. This is one the strongest one-month PMI gain ever for any country! China's November factory production expanded at the fastest pace in five months in November. New orders, including those from abroad, led to a solid rise in production, pushing manufacturers' optimism

Tidbits The Institute for Supply Management (ISM)  manufacturing index, also known as the purchasing managers' index (PMI), is a monthly economic activity based on a survey of purchasing managers at manufacturing firms nationwide. It is considered to be a key indicator of the state of the economy. In the U.S., several organizations conduct a survey and report their PMI results.   The ISM PMI, which is announced on the first business day of each month, can greatly influence in

Highlights Trump’s newly appointed counterterrorism adviser, Sebastian Gorka, says Trump plans to end the Ukraine war by threatening to flood Ukraine with military aid, making current U.S. support look like “peanuts.”    Andrey Sizov, the guru of Black Sea wheat market, reported yesterday afternoon that Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter, is gradually running out of inventory. "Russian total on-farm stocks: Lowest in three years, but still above average. Southern regi

Tidbits The American economy  expanded at a healthy 2.8% annual pace in the third quarter of 2024 on strong consumer spending and a surge in exports, the government said Wednesday, leaving unchanged its initial estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter, which was 0.2% less growth than in the second quarter.   U.S. GDP expansion has topped 2% for 8 of the last 9 quarters. The Commerce Department will issue its final third quarter 2024 GDP report on Dec. 19.   Consumer spendi

Tidbits President Elect Trump  said he spoke with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Wednesday. He said she agreed to stop migration across Mexico’s border with the U.S. Trump said,  “We also talked about what can be done to stop the massive drug inflow into the United States, and also, U.S. consumption of these drugs. It was a very productive conversation!”   In a post on X, Sheinbaum confirmed she spoke with Trump by phone and that the two discussed "strengthening colla

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China.    The 2 to 5 trading days before the delivery notices  are issued are usually more down days than up. December deliveries will be assigned to the oldest long positions tomorrow. Yesterday was the last day to liquidate December positions to avoid any chance of delivery. Soft red winter wheat was down 4 of the last 6 days; Dec hard red winter wheat was down 4 of the last 6 days

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, November 26 , 2024: December corn settled yesterday at $4.20¾, -6½¢ since last Tuesd

Markets will be closed on Thanksgiving, November 28, reopen on Friday, at 8:30 am CDT, and close early at 12:05 pm CDT. The Commodity Exchange Act states all U.S. futures exchanges cannot be closed more than three consecutive days. Highlights Israel and Hezbollah  have agreed to a permanent cease-fire beginning today.     Trump's statement that he will slap a 10% tariff on everything imported from China is supporting soybean oil because the tariff will increase the cost of im

Tidbits The market will be closed  on Thursday observing the Thanksgiving holiday. The final crop progress  report for the season: Winter wheat planting is at 97% complete - one of the most late-season endings. It is rated 55% good or excellent, 6% points improvement from a week ago and 10 better than five-year average level. As of the third week of November, Ukraine's total grain harvest  is 53.4 million mts, a 3.8% decline compared to the previous year, which includes 23.6

At the beginning of this marketing year (1 September), U.S. soybean export sales for this crop year were 15% less than the previous year. Karen Braun reported Friday U.S. soybean sales were 10% higher than a year ago for this marketing year. She also said sales to China were down 7% from a year ago. There are two ways to look at that; does it mean China is more likely to buy more than the normal tonnage of beans in the coming two months to "catch-up" or they just do not need

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 44,297, +851.52 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $71.18, +4.23. Dollar Index  settled at 107.49, +0.82. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,537, -248 for the week. Corn December futures  at $4.25½, +1½¢ for the week. Basis   (Z = Dec; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over December futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cas

U.S. Soybean Market Situation The two major unknowns for the North American markets are the biofuels unknowns and 2025 planted soybean acres. The biofuel issues are scheduled to become known within 30 to 40 days, but that probably will not happen or if it does happen, the Trump Administration could change them after 20 January.   Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) producers are eligible for a tax credit of $1.25 per gallon. Qualifying SAF must reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissio

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 198,000 mts of old crop beans to unknown.    The USDA forecasts net farm income to reach $116 billion in 2024, 15% above the 10-year average, but lawmakers argue this masks the struggles of individual producers, particularly row crop farmers. There are increasing calls for federal aid. Ag bankers report a 40% increase in new operating loans and signs of growing debt distress, particularly in the central Plains and Midw

Highlights December CBOT options expire today.   As we wrote earlier, President Biden authorized Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with long-range missiles, after that Ukraine launched two missile strikes on Russian regions. Experts say those missiles have to be operated by NATO specialists. Yesterday, Russia launched a strike with the “Oreshnik” Hypersonic Intercontinental Ballistic Missile  at a military plant in Ukraine. It is said hypersonic missiles have a sp