Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Corn Technical Outlook Technical analysis is based upon factors that have nothing to do with supply and demand. Technical analysis includes price chart patterns, trading volume, open interest changes, moving averages, etc. Most speculative traders are technicians, so it behooves us to understand the basics of technical analysis. You can learn more about fundamental analysis and some amazing things about technical analysis at: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/commodity-m

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 48,135, -323 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $56.54, -0.99. Dollar Index settled at 98.72, +0.33. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,023, -182. Corn March futures settled at $4.43¾, +3¢ for the week. B

Tidbits Yesterday afternoon Reuters reported that U.S. forces were in the process of boarding and seizing another sanctioned oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast but in international waters. This is the second oil tanker the U.S. has seized near Venezuela. Russia has escalated strikes on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports in an effort to stop exports from Ukraine. Odessa, Ukraine has always been the largest grain handling port on the Black Sea and it has taken a beating in recent day

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 134,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. The EU Council issued this press release following this week’s summit: The European Union will cover Ukraine's urgent financial needs in 2026–2027 by allocating 90 billion euros over the next two years through a loan secured by the EU budget. Russia will not receive its assets back until it stops its aggression. Ukraine will repay the loan only after Russia pays

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 114,000 of old crop soybeans to unknown. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation at the retail level. Yesterday’s U.S. CPI number of 2.7% annual inflation rate surprised the markets, which expected an annual inflation rate of 3.1%. Lower inflation increases the probability of lower interest rates which is good for all working-class people and businesses, but it also reduces demand for U.S. dollars

Tidbits Technically, March corn is looking good after testing its 100 day moving average the past three days and then settled up 4¢ yesterday. March beans traded 6¢ higher early yesterday, then 7¢ lower later before settling down 2¾¢, about 10¢ below its 100 day moving average and a little below the bottom of the gap from 27 October. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 21.36 is quite supportive. Fundamentally, the market is talking about Brazil’s “bigger than ever” bean crop

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change

Tidbits

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 150,320 mts of old crop corn to unknown 136,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China Soybeans: All eyes yesterday were on January soybeans as its price traded into the 27 October gap on the daily chart by 3¼¢, reducing the gap to 4¢. January beans settled 1½¢ above the top of the gap (which is friendly), but down 5¢ on the day. Yesterday’s NOPA crush was lower than expected at 216.041 million bushels but was

Tidbits Eduardo Vanin reported Saturday: "Too much rain in the Center of Brazil and Parana and late planting up North. 1. Supply side is pricing a possible (harvest) delay. A small amount of beans supply in January. The spread of Feb-Mar is still close to 20¢. The CFR is more than that. 2. Corn market is firmer for safrinha as a side effect. Probably the start of the export program will again be slow (small program for July)." And on Sunday he added: "Last week Brazil sold

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 48,458, +503 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $57.53, -2.61. Dollar Index settled at 98.39, -0.60. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,205, -522. Corn March futures settled at $4.40¾, -4¢ for the week. B

Tidbits Trade talks: Trump's special trade representative, John Cole, who was in Minsk in recent days for trade talks with Belarus’ officials, announced yesterday that the U.S. is lifting sanctions on Belarusian potash. Belarus is the world’s third leading potash exporter behind Canada and Russia. Export sales: As we reported yesterday, on Friday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 132,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China 93,895 mts of old crop soybean meal to Mexic

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 132,000 mts of soybeans to China 104,328 mts of soy meal to Mexico 250,000 mts of corn to unknown Brazil's Corn: Geraldo Isolodi is an analyst with Terra Investmentos of Brazil. He wrote his South American Crop Update earlier this month. Here are the highlights of what he had to say about the corn market: "At the present, the corn market is supported by robust domestic demand from corn-based ethanol plan

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 264,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China 226,000 mts of old crop beans to unknown 186,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown Crude oil: OPEC’s latest monthly report maintained a firm demand outlook due to consistent demand in China and India while reiterating that non-OPEC supply growth is set to moderate in 2026. The group also noted that OPEC+ supply management continues to anchor market stability. In its

Tidbits Interest Rate: Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9 to 3 to lower the benchmark Fed Funds rate by a quarter point to a new target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. One vote was to lower the policy rate by half percent, while two votes supported no change. Post meeting comments included that the Federal Reserve will buy $40 billion worth of U.S. treasury bills over the next 30 days to put more money in circulation; the Fed expects one rate cut in 2026 and

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change

S&D Highlights Corn: On yesterday’s S&D, corn received the strongest boost as exports increased by 125 million bushels and the carryover was reduced by the same amount to 2,029 million bushels, a 45 day supply, down 4 days from last month and well below market expectations. As is normal for December, there were no production changes on this S&D. World corn carryout was reduced by 86 million bushels, but the days’ use needle was not moved and is still at 79 days compared to 85

The numbers were overall a non-event: Friendly for corn Supportive for soybeans Neutral wheat CBOT 20 Minutes After Report Mar corn +3 Jan beans -7 July CBOT wheat -2 July KC wheat -2 Sept Spring wheat +1 The 2024-25 numbers are meaningless as that marketing year ended three months ago!

Tidbits December S&D will be released by the USDA today at 10 AM Mountain Time. In past years, the USDA never changed the yields on the December report, but some analysts expect there may be a yield adjustment this year because of the government shutdown. We doubt it, but it would be logical to have an adjustment since we did not get one in October. Farm aid: USDA announced that $11 billion of “bridge money” will be paid to farmers no later than 28 February 2026 and farmers w

Сurrency & Prices We mentioned on Saturday that the Brazilian currency was sharply lower on Friday, making Brazil’s products cheaper to buy for foreign buyers compared to U.S. products. Susan Stroud of No Bull Ag reported Brazil’s currency lost 2.3% versus the dollar on Friday. Despite CBOT January soybeans settling 14¼¢ lower on Friday, Brazil’s soybeans gained about 11¢. Here is the math: If soybeans were $11 a bushel in the U.S. on Friday and the exchange rate of Brazil’