Tidbits, Crude Oil, Rainfall in Brazil 5/4/25
- Wright team
- May 4
- 4 min read
Highlights
OPEC+ members were scheduled to meet Monday, but the members decided to meet yesterday to discuss the pace of recovering the voluntary production cuts of the past two years, according to Kpler’s Amena Bakr. The virtual meeting’s agenda focused on “consensus building around maintaining the 411,000 barrels per day increased production for June.”
After yesterday’s meeting, OPEC+ announced it would increase crude oil output by 411,000 barrels per day starting June 1, 2025, significantly higher than the previously scheduled 140,000 bpd increase. Given that crude oil was down $4.79 last week, this production increase is mostly priced-in. Crude oil futures will likely open lower this evening and may trade $1 to $2 lower into Monday morning, but one should expect a remarkable rebound later Monday or Tuesday at the latest. This production increase is certainly not totally unexpected news even by us folks “not in the know.” Saudi Arabia has been threatening for months to punish OPEC+ members who were exporting more than their quota of oil by increasing their own production.
Old crop corn was probably lower on Friday because “insiders” knew this news was coming over the weekend. Lower crude prices mean lower gasoline prices and that means lower ethanol prices. However, that is probably already priced-in for the most part.
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