Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Old crop carryovers were just about as expected for everything except world wheat was 3.8 million mts less than expected and 2.8 million mts less than the lowest estimate. That small old crop wheat carryover and short new crop production made the new crop wheat world carryover just above the lowest estimate and well below expectations. World new crop corn carrover was 9.2 million mts less than expected. Note the world corn carryover has been relatively tight for several y

Tidbits The USDA will release its May S&D at 11 AM Central today, which will include the first of 36 monthly estimates for the 2026/27 crops. Flash Sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 220,000 mts of old crop corn, 160,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico and 128,000 mts of old crop to South Korea. China’s annual inflation accelerated to 1.2% in April 2026 from 1% in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 0.8%. President Trump will arrive in Chi

Tidbits After Iran rejected the U.S. proposal to end the war, on Sunday, President Trump rejected Iran's counter response to the U.S. proposal. Crude oil opened $2.77 higher at $98.19 last evening and then traded as high as $98.85 in the first hour of trading and higher from there. Iranian state media said the response focused on ending the war on all fronts and on the safety of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz without indicating how or when the waterway might reopen

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 49,609, +110 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $94.68, -7.82. Dollar Index settled at 97.84, -0.37. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,978, +248. Corn July futures settled at $4.71¼, -9¢ for the week. December corn set

Tidbits Brazil: Weekend comments from AgrInvest Commodities: Weather models have reduced expectations for widespread rainfall in Goiás and Minas Gerais, while concerns are growing about possible frosts in southern Brazil over the weekend, especially in areas growing second-crop corn in Paraná. In the physical market, Goiás is expected to register lower production, while domestic consumption continues to advance with the expansion of corn ethanol, reducing Brazil's export pote

Tidbits Fuel: The Department of Treasury has scheduled a public hearing for 27 May on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. The proposed rule defines eligibility, emissions rates, and certification requirements. California’s year-end data has just been released. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) consumption reached 119.5 million gallons in 2025. U.S. Economy: Yesterday, the S&P 500 rose nearly 1% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.7% as both indexes made new highs. The Dow J

Tidbits Iran’s military said United States forces targeted an Iranian oil tanker in coastal waters and a second vessel near the United Arab Emirates’ Fujairah port, while U.S. air strikes hit civilian areas in southern Iran. The U.S. military’s Central Command said its naval forces came under Iranian missile, drone and fast-boat attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump described the attacks on Iranian targets as a “love tap”, telling U.S. broadcast media that “

Tidbits Corn, beans, and wheat were smartly lower for the second consecutive day yesterday primarily because crude oil was sharply lower. June futures contract was down as much as $13.61 and finished down $7.19. Lower crude prices mean lower gasoline and diesel prices, reducing the value of biofuel blending stock. However, lower fuel prices are good for the economy. A strong economy will increase demand for fuel and everything else, like livestock that eat feed and all the co

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits Fertilizer: Dakota Gas has switched from making diesel exhaust fluid to making granular 46% nitrogen urea at their Great Plains Synfuels Plant near Beulah, North Dakota. The plant’s capacity is 1,100 short tons per day. The USA burns enough DEF each year to meet all of Canada’s nitrogen fertilizer needs. Brazil: Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities reported on Monday: “I’m in Goiás this week. Everywhere I’ve been, the corn looks small and stressed. I saw sunflower a

Tidbits The U.S. and Iran launched new attacks yesterday as they fought for control of the Strait of Hormuz. Several merchant ships in the Persian Gulf reported explosions or fires. The U.S. said it had destroyed six small Iranian military boats. Iran attacked and set ablaze a large U.S. military base and oil port in the United Arab Emirates. Crude oil futures were up $4.48 yesterday. U.S. and China tensions took a turn for the worse over the weekend as Bloomberg reported tha

Tidbits StoneX’s fertilizer guy, Josh Linville, reports U.S. price change of various nitrogen fertilizers since 1 March: NOLA urea - 39% higher NOLA UAN - 55% higher Midwest NH3 - 28% higher NOLA DAP - 21% higher NOLA MAP - 15% higher NOLA Potash - 14% higher *NOLA = New Orleans, Louisiana Deliveries to be Assigned Today For Tuesday Delivery on May Futures: March Crush: The USDA reported on Friday that corn crushed for alcohol and other uses was 523 million bushels in March

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 49,499, +269 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $102.5, +7.62. Dollar Index settled at 98.21, -0.30. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,730, +65. Corn July futures settled at $4.80¼, +16¾¢ for the week. December corn se

Tidbits President Trump reportedly had a 90 minute phone conversation with President Putin on Friday. No news about the topics discussed. President Trump posted on Truth social: "Based on the fact the European Union is not complying with our fully agreed to Trade Deal, next week I will be increasing Tariffs charged to the European Union for Cars and Trucks coming into the United States. The Tariff will be increased to 25%. It is fully understood and agreed that, if they pro

Tidbits July corn traded above major technical resistance at $4.80 yesterday to $4.83½ and settled at $4.80¼. December corn finally traded above $5.00 to make a high of $5.01¾ and then settled at $4.98¾, up 4½ on the day. November beans made a new high for the second consecutive day trading to $11.84½ and settling at $11.82¾, up 9¾¢. It is technically friendly that both settled, not only higher on the day after making new highs but also much closer to the high than the low.

Tidbits November beans and December corn made their 2026 highs on Thursday 30 April. $11.78 and $4.99¾ respectively. The price of soybeans continues to rise today, exceeding $11.79. Japan’s Central Bank intervened in the foreign exchange market with buying yesterday. It was the first such intervention since July 2024. The yen buying raised its value versus the dollar by a massive 3.1%. The yen had its strongest day since 2022. Japan is the fourth largest importer of American

Tidbits The Federal Reserve voted 8 to 4 to hold the target interest rate at 3.5-3.75% for the third consecutive meeting, as expected. Energy markets are sharply higher today amid stalled Iranian peace talks and renewed threats of further military action. Crude oil has risen significantly, and soybean oil follows. U.S. crude inventories fell by 6.2 million barrels the past week, while the market expected it to be almost steady. Crude oil production rose a bit, while imports d

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits If you have any May positions, your cash grain and futures brokers want you to liquidate or roll all May positions before the close today. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada will announce this afternoon their decision on interest rates. The market expects no changes by either central bank. Crude oil: After nearly 60 years of membership, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced yesterday it is leaving OPEC. Angola left OPEC in 2024, Ecuador left in 2020, and Qa

Tidbits Tomorrow is the last trading day before delivery notices are posted for May futures. That usually means prices yesterday and today would be lower because all long May futures positions and basis contracts must be rolled or liquidated before the close Wednesday. Soy crush margins moved to fresh all-time highs at $3.52 per bushel, with bean oil contributing 52% of the value, which is still a historically high ratio. Soybean oil (and cotton) reached new highs last week.