Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits S&D: As expected, the USDA did not make any significant changes to the U.S. balance sheets, as ending stocks of corn, soybeans, and wheat remained unchanged. Corn global inventories rose nearly 3 million mts; production rose 1.7 million mts in Ukraine and 1 million mts in Brazil, while down 1 million mts in Argentina. The average U.S. Farm price for 2025/26 at $4.10 and for 2026/27 it was pegged at $4.20 in February.

The numbers were neutral for corn, wheat and beans. CBOT 20 Minutes After Report Were the Same as Before Report May corn -5 Dec Corn -5 May beans +7 July CBOT wheat -14 July KC wheat -13 Sept Spring wheat -13

Tidbits The USDA will issue its March S&D at 11 AM Central time today. There were new contract highs in the soy complex and also in a few deferred corn futures months amid crude oil spikes. AgRural reports Brazil’s first corn harvest hit 42%, lagging the 54% seen a year earlier. Planting of Brazil's second corn crop reached 82%, compared with 92% a year earlier. While corn plantings in Mato Grosso have reached 94%, just shy of the 96% pace from a year ago. Brazilian farmers h

Tidbits Mike Alfred is a private investor, advisor, and corporate board member of several companies. He is the Founder and Managing Partner of Alpine Fox LP, a private investment partnership focused on value equities and Bitcoin. He has 338,600 followers on X, where he posted mid-day yesterday (Sunday): "I just sailed through the Strait of Hormuz. Light wind, good visibility, saw a few other yachts. No sign of conflict. The trading lane is open for business. Oil should soft

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 47,502, -1,476 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $91.27, +23.98. Dollar Index settled at 98.85, +1.20. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,010, -130. Corn May futures settled at $4.60½, +12¢ for the week.

Tidbits Iran’s president issued an apology to neighboring countries to calm regional anger at Iran’s strikes on Gulf civilian targets and urged them not to join the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. Fertilizer: From Agrinvest and Dellagro Team: "The global fertilizer market went on alert following escalating tensions in the Middle East, which increased logistical uncertainties in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.

Tidbits The price of crude oil rose by more than $10 in a single day, closing at $91.27. The U.S. will allow Russian crude oil that has been stranded at sea to be sold to India to ease the potential supply shock to the global market. It is estimated there is 150 million barrels of Russian oil in those ships. Treasury Secretary ​Scott Bessent yesterday ‌said the United States could remove sanctions from more ​Russian oil, a ​day after Washington issued a ⁠30-day waiver all

Tidbits Crude Oil & Fuel: Bloomberg reports that China has told their oil refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports. Japanese oil refiners are asking the government to release supplies from the strategic petroleum reserves and have also bought around 7 million barrels of U.S. crude oil for June arrival. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright said the Navy will escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz “when the time is right,” but their current focus is disarming Iran. He said

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 125,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. Fed Reserve: Yesterday, President Trump submitted his nomination of the former Fed governor, Kevin Warsh, to the Senate as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve to replace Jerome Powell in May. Cattle & Hogs: The American Rancher Alliance reported yesterday that three-day-old bull calves are now selling for $2,200. That is quite a testament to the confidence some p

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change

Tidbits Logistics, Energy & Fertilizer: At 2:37 PM ET yesterday, President Trump ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for all maritime trade traveling through the Persian Gulf. The U.S. is preparing military measures to safeguard ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Energy contracts trimmed gains when that news came out early afternoon. In addition to 20% of the world’s crude oil, more than 30% of the world’s fe

Tidbits January crush numbers were reported by the USDA after the close yesterday. Corn crush was 505 million bushels, down 2% from a year ago; 461 million bushels of corn were crushed for ethanol, down 1% from a year ago, crush numbers were better than we expected, given the January weather in the Corn Belt. The January weather probably had something to do with the amount of corn crushed for beverage alcohol at 3.47 million bushels, up 22% from January 2025. The soybean crus

Tidbits April WTI Crude Oil futures opened at $75.00 last evening, up $7.98. In a matter of seconds, it traded to $75.33 and, within 15 minutes, it traded down to $71.04. Brent crude traded as high as $80 in over-the-counter trading Sunday. The big move up is primarily on fears the Strait of Hormuz on the south end of the Persian Gulf may be closed or blocked. More than 20% of global crude oil and 33% of international fertilizer trade passes the Strait of Hormuz. Some shipo

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 48,978, -648 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $67.29, +0.98. Dollar Index settled at 97.65, -0.14. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 22,140, +97. Corn May futures settled at $4.48½, +8¾¢ for the week. Ba

Tidbits How will the markets react to the attack on Iran? Logically, one would expect crude oil to trade higher. There will be fools buying crude oil futures on the opening this evening. They don't realize traders have already Bought the Rumor (U.S. will attack Iran) and those same traders Will Sell the Fact (U.S. did attack Iran). The only reason crude oil would maintain its $12 gain since mid-December is if the insurance companies refuse to insure ships sailing to and from

Highlights Israel launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran on Saturday about 8 AM local time, pushing the Middle East into a renewed military confrontation and further dimming hopes for a diplomatic solution to Tehran's long-running nuclear dispute with the West. The New York Times and Al Jazeera, citing a U.S. official, reported that the United States took part in the strikes. President Trump confirmed that the U.S. military began major combat operations in Iran. Tidbits

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 154,000 mts of new crop corn and 24,000 mts of 2027 crop corn to Japan. Soybean Demand & Oil: Weekly Export Sales reported 407,100 mts of soybeans were booked for export this marketing year which ends 31 August. Soybean sales were down 49% from a week ago and down 30% from the 4-week average. China bought 75,500 mts, but 66,000 mts was switched from an unknown buyer to China. So, China only bought 9,500 mts

Tidbits Israel plans to make further trade concessions to the U.S. on food and agricultural goods. The Israeli government intends to scrap a tax-free quota and raise levies to 50% on wheat-feed imported from countries other than the U.S. starting in April, as Bloomberg reports. Officials hope that boosting the competitiveness of U.S. wheat against Israel’s traditional suppliers — the largest of them being Russia — will help clinch a deal to ease tariffs on goods shipped to th

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change

Tidbits First notice day for March futures is this coming Friday. Panama has reassigned control of two key ports from Chinese operator CK Hutchinson to two European operators after nearly three decades in Chinese hands. CK Hutchison said Panama's decision to cancel key port contracts and grant temporary licences to Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping was “unlawful” as it considers national and international legal action against Panama and third parties. U.S. President Donald Tr