BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Today is when President Trump said his tariffs on various imported products from multiple countries will be announced. The market has probably overestimated the impact of these tariffs.     Yesterday, the USDA reported total crush for February after the CBOT closed. The corn crush was 465 million bushels, down 6% from a year ago; corn crushed for ethanol was 421 million bushels, down 5%. The soybean crush was 189 million bushels, 2% less than a year ago. The canola cr

Tidbits Corn was sharply lower yesterday because of the weekly ethanol report (see below) and the fear of Monday’s USDA acreage and inventory report as well as continued tariff rhetoric. New orders for durable goods in the U.S.  unexpectedly increased $2.7 billion or up 0.9% in February versus January following an upwardly revised 3.3% jump in January. The market expected February durable goods to be down 1%. Later this morning, we will get the U.S. GDP update. The market exp

Tidbits Federal Reserve  Chairman Jerome Powell said yesterday afternoon interest rates will not be changed this month, but he weighed in on the state of the US economy. His outlook was not reassuring, which was not a surprise knowing he hates Trump. Powell said Trump’s policies are one reason why inflation is reigniting. Powell said the Fed sharply reduced its 2025 growth projection for the U.S. economy and noted that uncertainty around the slowing economy is increasing. Pow

Highlights Putin and Trump talked for more than 2 hours yesterday. Putin told Trump that a complete cessation of military aid to Kyiv is the key condition for resolving the conflict in Ukraine, according to TASS, the Russian news service. Putin also noted the serious risks associated with the non-agreement of Kiev, which has already repeatedly sabotaged and violated the agreements reached.   Putin has agreed to an initial "energy and infrastructure" ceasefire, to be followed

Tidbits President Trump and President Putin are scheduled to have a phone conversation this morning regarding the negotiations of a ceasefire and possibly the end to the Ukraine/Russia  war. The discussion will be centered on the allocation of assets, primarily of land and power plants that must be settled before a lasting peace can be maintained. Mark Carney was sworn in as the first new Canadian prime minister  in nine years on Friday. He visited the UK and France as his fi

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale  of 218,604 mts of old crop corn to unknown and 20,000 mts of old crop soybean oil to unknown.   Karen Braun , Global Ag Analyst and Reporter for Reuters News Service reported the following on Thursday: "According to its own statistics agency, CONAB, Brazil’s corn supplies, as of a few weeks ago, hit the lowest level in at least 25 years.   But the USDA does not expect a scenario like that to unfold until early next year.

Highlights Corn deliveries on March futures have been zero since 7 March, so a search for a reason for yesterday’s 14¢ loss on May corn by late morning found no fundamental reason other than the price of eggs had fallen from $8.17 earlier this month to $5.51 yesterday according to the USDA, which reported the egg inventory increased 5.2% the past week. A bit later, we learned ethanol production was down 31,000 barrels per day from last week, but still above 1.06 million barre

Highlights On Saturday, China announced tariffs on over $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products, retaliating against Canadian tariffs introduced in October. The tariffs are scheduled to take effect on 20 March and they match the 100% and 25% import duties Canada slapped on China-made electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum products. Canola was excluded from a China tariff, which was one of Canada's top exports to the world's top agricultural importer pri

Highlights First thing this morning the USDA will release its projections for 2025  crops and that includes the S&D with acres planted, yields, and price projections. The average estimate for tomorrow’s acreage numbers are 93.6 million for corn, 84.4 million for soybeans, and 46.7 million for wheat. Drew Learner, Senior Agricultural Meteorologist at World Weather expects drier than normal weather for Brazil’s safrinha corn:   “While monsoon precipitation is expected to prevai

Highlights President Putin announced yesterday the restoration of U.S. and Russia diplomatic ties  as the peace talks accelerate. Reuters News service confirmed the agreement was reached Tuesday, the first day of the negotiations in Saudi Arabia on ending the war. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered their Argentine corn  production estimate by 1 million mts to 46 million (USDA 50). Corn condition rating this week is down to 16% in good/excellent and up to 49% poor/very p

Tidbits Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian soybean crop estimate  one million mts to 171 million due to  “surprising harvest progress in central Brazil last week and the anticipation of another good harvest week this week.”   Alê Delara is an agronomist and farmer in the Brazilian state of Paraná in Southern Brazil. Yesterday he said, “Here come the beans! We will probably have the highest productivity here on the farm since we started with soybeans.”   Kory Melby is

Highlights The USDA made no changes on the domestic corn and soybean S&D  other than increasing the average price expected to be paid to...

Highlights The weather pattern Mato Grosso and Goias through Wednesday is expected to allow a sharp advance in the harvest pace. Weather forecasts indicate alternating rain and sun, with higher temperatures. Elevators in Mato Grosso reported a three to fourfold increase in soybean deliveries the past two days. Crushers report very low protein content (below 33%), but high oil content.   In Brazil’s leading corn and bean producing state, Mato Grosso (MT), the prices in July fo

Highlights A 10% tariff  on Chinese imports into the U.S. went into effect yesterday. China said it will retaliate with a 15% tariff on U.S. coal, liquefied natural gas, a 10% tariff on crude oil, agriculture machinery, and pickup trucks. The volume of U.S. agricultural machinery exports to China is about $1 billion per year, the main exporter is the state of Iowa, with which China has established ties. Currently, Chinese tariffs affect 2-3% of total U.S. exports.   Note that

Highlights Former Minnesota farmer turned Brazil all-around ag consultant Kory Melby commented Saturday afternoon on X: “These numbers will increase a lot by next Friday, however, MT (Mato Grosso)  soy harvest at 4.2% vs 21% (a year ago) , MT cotton planting 29% vs 77% and corn planting at 1% vs 11%. Cotton is now out of the ideal  (planting)  window and corn has 1 month  (before the ideal planting window closes) . Next 30 days are mega important for 2nd corn."   If Kory is c

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 136,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. Rumors are floating that China needs to buy corn. The U.S. is the only place to buy shiploads of corn until June. Three months ago, China said it harvested its biggest crop of corn last summer despite three typhoons moving across much of their corn growing area in July and August.   Early yesterday China halted soybean imports from five Brazilian companies because cargoes did no

Highlights Eduardo Vanin reported yesterday: "Soybean (export)  lineup to China. Shipments in the last 4 weeks at 4.5 million mts and nominations (export sales not shipped) at 4.7 million mts. Both numbers are too low. Soybean stocks in China will drop fast. Add to this the very slow harvest in Brz. Soybean auctions demand will jump."   AgRural claims it is an independent, privately owned Brazilian agricultural consultancy established in Curitiba, Paraná, since 1996. It provi

FinCEN Reports Yesterday we reported that the U.S. Court of Appeals on Monday reinstated the 1 January 2025 deadline for farmer corporations and limited liability companies to file Beneficial Ownership Information (BOI) reports as required under the Corporate Transparency Act.   We had two clients send us the U.S.Treasury FINCEN Alert providing guidance to avoid BOI scams. The document states there is no requirement to file BOI reports “at this time,” but no date is included

Brazil Canal Rural is a Latin American subscription television channel that focuses on the production of food, agroindustry, and the field. It originated in Argentina and has been in operation for over 14 years. Canal Rural uses journalism, entertainment, and services to communicate with the country's agribusiness. Their crop comments issued 24 December 2025:   After a dry start to planting, excess rainfall in some regions of Mato Grosso, Brazil is starting to cause concerns

Tidbits South Korea bought 201,000 mts of corn: 136,000 mts is expected from unspecified sources and 65,000 mts from South America. Japan bought 77,220 mts of milling wheat from a tender that we mentioned 2 days ago: 55,420 mts from the U.S. and 21,800 mts from Australia. China's Sinograin has bought nearly 500,000 mts of U.S. soybeans this week for shipment in March and April, paying more for U.S. supplies for state reserves rather than buying cheaper Brazilian beans, two U.