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USDA August S&D Numbers 8/12/25

The numbers were:

 

Bearish Corn

  • Yield was 188.8. That was higher than the highest estimate

  • Corn acres were increased 2.1 million


Bullish Soybeans

  • Despite record large yield, new crop soybean carryover lower than lowest estimate because demand increased and acres were reduced 2.5 million


Friendly to Bullish Wheat 

  • U.S. carryover about as expected, but the world new crop carryout is below lowest estimate by 200,000 mts at 260.80 million mts

 

Something Never Seen Before:  

In years past, when a crop is planted on larger than normal acres, yields are normal at the best, but usually less than normal.

The 2025 corn yield is projected to be 9.36 bushels larger than ever before on the most corn acreage planted since 1936.

 

Settlements at the CBOT

  • Sept Corn -13.5

  • Dec corn -13.25

  • Nov beans +21.5

  • Sept CBOT wheat -10

  • Sept KC wheat -8.25

  • Sept Spring wheat +1 

 

This summary chart of market expectations & today's USDA Numbers are from DTN:

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