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Tidbits, SA Yields, 2022 Urea Prices, Markets & Rain Days Update 2/13/23


The soybean fields of Argentina and Rio Grande do Sul (RGDS), Brazil’s southern state, had temperatures 100 to 104°F (38 to 40°C) over the weekend with the next 7 days predicted to be above normal temperatures and below normal, but with some rainfall, the next few days.

Up until late January, the market bought the baloney that any drought in Argentina and RGDS resulting in fewer beans would be more than offset by the above average rainfall in Northern Brazil. We said all along, that would not happen. Why?

A La Niña drought reduces bean yields in Southern areas of South America at least 5 bushels per acre and often 10 bushels. The current three-year La Niña was stronger the past six months than the previous two years. Sure, it brings above normal rainfall to Northern areas of South America where they will get 9 or 10 days of rain every 10 day period instead of the normal 6 to 7 days of rain. That extra rain might add one, maybe two bushels per acre, but that does not offset losing 10 to 15 bushels per acre on 40% of South America’s bean fields. Those rains everyday in Northern Brazil are keeping harvest very slow, which is very bullish corn. Safrinha corn planted after February 22 is handicapped and planted after March 1st is like planting corn in Iowa after July 1st.

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